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要警惕推演思维，里面会有很多幻想和投射， 与之相对的是论证思维，里面会多很多事实的基础。 那么问题来了，终局思考法是推演思维吗？还是论证的成分会更大一些。

SpaceX millionaires 4,000 x $1mil , 400 x $100 mil Every employee who joined before the first succesful launch made (unless they sold early) more than $100 million. SpaceX lists June 12 at ~$1.75T. Work backward from the cap table. At $1.75T, clearing $100M takes ~0.0057% of the company. - 2002–2008, first ~500 in: joined at a ~$50M company. Held to $1.75T = a 17,000x. The core of the club — maybe 150–250 left holding - September 2008, SpaceX has first successful launch - 2010–2016: joined at $1B–$10B. Needs a senior grant — directors, principal engineers, early Starlink. ~100–200 - C-suite + board: Shotwell, Johnsen past $1B. A layer of SVPs below them clears $100M on equity, not salary. ~20–40 - Post-2016: joined at $20B–$350B. To hit $100M you'd have needed ~0.4% of the company. Impossible for an employee. This is the millionaire tier — almost none reach $100M The tally: ~400–500 at $100M+ A few dozen above $500M A handful of billionaires past Musk Same building. Same mission. Two orders of magnitude apart — set entirely by what year you walked in. Early isn't a strategy. It's a date stamp.

RZCOS 은묘님 @enmyo_cos 혈맹야담 화보 후기 역시 은묘님은 눈빛이랑 표정연기가 아주 일품 이번 화보는 제가 좋아하는 포인트가 많이 부각된 화보라 대만족 현장체키찍으면서 사인도 받음 씹덕사 털썩

PSA: Your fav creators today once had terrible lighting, awkward edits, zero polish. It's rare and unfair to expect that new creators look like fully formed pros on day one. The fun is spotting the spark early and watching them glow up and evolve. I've seen it so many times.