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6.11梭哈晨报： 最近的行情实在是太好玩了，昨天cpi出来砸了，开盘后反倒拉了，赶紧跑完所有睡觉了，给机会不跑那不是要当傻逼吗😂，人人都说spacex不吸血，人人都跑了资金去打spacex到底吸吗？ 1. bitcoin:native 还算好，没跟着美股暴跌，永远的60000保卫战？ 2. ethereum:native Tom Lee继续加仓，想不到还有谁在车上了； 3. solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 还是没找到自己发展的道路，太傻逼了基金会； 4.Gensyn 基金会：因内部管理操作，未来几天将把大量代币转移到新钱包； 5.Hedgeye 计划推出 HBIT 对冲型比特币 ETF； 6.Tom Lee 再次力挺以太坊，因供应收缩，BitMine 或仅需持有不超 5% 总量； 有钱有持仓被套牢，真的说话就是硬气； 7.PiggyBank披露LAB基差交易操纵事件损失细节，将补偿受损用户； 大聪明真的是大聪明； 8.Netomi CEO：价值5万亿美元的AI客户体验市场或会提振稳定币需求； 还好和加密货币无关； 9.日本游戏公司Enish亏本清仓比特币，并将资金战略转向Solana生态质押； 这不是纯粹的脑残吗？ 10.Anthropic CEO 呼吁美加强前沿 AI 监管； 狗日的自己现在top1，就要强制监管别人了； 11.Raydium：已停用AMM程序遭攻击，134万美元全部损失将由财库承担； 好久没听见ray的消息了，自从meme summer结束后； 12.美伊凌晨发生海上冲突，伊朗对所有船只关闭霍尔木兹海峡； 终于打起来了，别又是开玩笑的啊； 13.Curve 通过 Llamalend v2 升级改变 DeFi 借贷模式； 每次都要被人拯救的sm玩意； 14.美股三大指数集体收跌，HOOD涨超3.28%，赌 $ORCL 财报的兄弟爽死了，怒吃-10%； 15.美媒：特朗普向伊朗提出两项额外要求导致协议推迟达成； 16.特朗普回应最新通胀数据创去年9月以来新高：我爱通胀； ------------- 继续耐心耐心耐心等待机会吧，不要那么急撒，周五的spacex上了，下周都是机会吧，实在不行担心就一点点进吧。 #Bitcoin# #Ethereum# #Solana# #Crypto# #NASDAQ#

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it. Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use. 2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number. We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against. The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods. This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040. The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve. The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper. Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time. Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday. We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share. SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space. It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice. The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel. Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly. Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

Saw a few people on CT comparing lending APYs again and it reminded me how different fixed-rate markets behave. When I borrow on Aave, I always have one eye on utilization because rates can shift long after the position is opened. With @TermMaxFi, the borrowing cost is fixed until maturity, so I know exactly what I'm paying from day one. That predictability changes how I manage risk and size positions. The rate isn't coming from a utilization model either. It's priced through an AMM yield curve and orderbook-style execution across different maturities. Different durations, different rates. The position ends up feeling more like a fixed income instrument than floating debt. I've been using one-click leverage more often because there's less uncertainty around future borrowing costs. Makes it easier to plan XP farming without constantly adjusting loops. Started allocating part of my capital into Vaults too. The premium plus XP yield fits better with how I'm approaching longer-term positions right now. Not necessarily chasing the highest number on the screen. Just trying to reduce variables where I can. Fixed rates to maturity help with that more than I expected.

No, quantum computers are not about to destroy the security of encryption systems. I have been seeing loads of noise about that, and it’s not true. To break encryption systems, you need to be able to factor numbers with thousands of digits to break cryptography and we have been stuck with quantum computers being able to factor two digits for 25 years now. 21 is the largest number ever cleanly factored by a quantum computer, and you can do that in your head in a moment, it’s 3 times 7. This graph is on a log scale (linear in digits), but it would be pretty much the same silly flat line on a linear scale. You need to be able to handle 1200 digits, but I will settle for being interested again when someone can factor 91 with a quantum computer. Now, a schoolchild can factor 91, it’s 7 x 13, but it would at least represent progress over the current record, which as I said is 21. (And yes, for the pedants out there, elliptic curve systems are a bit different but it’s the same principle.)

Years ago, Elon Musk sat on a stage and pointed to the largest flying object humanity had ever conceived. And he called it a rowboat. Elon Musk: “The future spacecraft will make this look like a rowboat. The future spaceships will be truly enormous.” He wasn’t describing ambition. He was describing a unit of measurement. The interviewer asked what it could carry. Musk: “This can take a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel, maximum passengers, maximum cargo… this can take it as cargo.” The 747 took decades and the full weight of Boeing’s engineering empire to perfect. Musk looked at it and saw a suitcase. Not a rival. Not a benchmark. A thing you put inside the real thing. That is not confidence. That is a completely different relationship with scale. Then came the timeline. The interviewer assumed twenty to thirty years. Musk said eight to ten. Nobody blinked. That is what dismissal looks like in real time. Not pushback. Just the quiet assumption that the number isn’t serious. Because the human brain is linear. We project the next decade by copying the last one. Musk was reading a manufacturing curve most people in that room didn’t know existed. The disbelief was not skepticism. It was a biological limitation. We just watched a 232-foot booster fall from space and land between a pair of mechanical arms on its first attempt. The rowboat is being built in real time. Most people misread the gap. It is not between dreamers and doers. Every founder “does.” The gap is between people who set a deadline and people who set a deadline and then wager everything they have that the laws of physics will cooperate with the calendar. Most visionaries paint the picture and wait for the world to catch up. Musk pours the concrete before the permits arrive. For a decade, the timeline was mocked. The physics were questioned. The ambition was called delusional. And step by step, fireball by fireball, the steel got taller. Every generation builds something it considers a miracle. And every generation that follows quietly loads that miracle into its cargo bay and barely notices the weight. That is how civilizations actually move. Not in straight lines. In phase shifts. And the people who trigger them always look insane right up until the moment they don’t. He told us exactly what he was going to build. Then he built it.

🚨 SCIENTISTS JUST CREATED ULTRA-COMPACT LENSES THAT COULD SHRINK CAMERAS DRAMATICALLY. Researchers have developed wafer-level meta-aspheric lenses that combine traditional curved lenses with flat metalenses. The result is a lens system that is only 3.39 mm thick but delivers wide field-of-view near-infrared imaging something that normally requires much bulkier optics. Why this matters: • Current high-performance NIR cameras are still relatively large and expensive • These new lenses can be manufactured at wafer scale (mass production) • They achieve high image quality in a volume of just 0.02 cm³ • Could enable much smaller, cheaper sensors for phones, drones, medical devices, and AR/VR The deeper implication is practical: We are entering an era where powerful imaging systems no longer need to be bulky. This kind of compact, high-performance optics could accelerate everything from better night-vision in phones to smaller medical imaging tools and more advanced autonomous systems. What do you think which device would you most like to see get dramatically smaller thanks to better optics? Follow for more frontier materials science and future technology.

Today a crazy quantum story just got wilder. On March 31, the Google Quantum AI team published a landmark result on Shor's algorithm for elliptic curve cryptography. Technically, the paper was a bombshell: a dramatic 10x improvement over the state-of-the-art. As a stunt and wakeup call to the blockchain space, those optimisations were illustrated on secp256k1, the elliptic curve underlying Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. But perhaps the most striking part of the paper was sociological, not technical. Instead of following standard academic process, the optimisations were kept secret, hidden behind a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof. Google's accompanying blog post mentions they "engaged with the U.S. government". The ZK proof demonstrates the existence of algorithmic improvements without leaking details. Academic censorship with ZK, a historic first! As a co-author of the Google paper I witnessed some of the context surrounding this censorship. To be honest, multiple aspects of that context don't sit well with me. As much as I believe the general public ought to know more, I am limited in my ability to whistleblow. Though let me be clear about one thing: the Google team's professionalism has been absolutely exemplary, and they deserve nothing but praise. Censorship has a way of backfiring. The Streisand effect, where an attempt to bury something only draws more attention to it, is exactly what's unfolding today. First, Google's key optimisation has been rediscovered by the French. And in a thrilling turn of events, a collaborative Shor-at-home challenge just launched. The initiative, available at ecdsa[.]fail, breached a new Shor world record in a matter of hours. Let's start with the rediscovery. Just two months after Google's paper, French quantum expert André Schrottenloher cracks the main secret optimisation. His paper, titled "Optimized Point Addition Circuits for Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithms", landed on the arXiv today. Big congrats to André, who beat several other nerdsnipped experts to it. In a blog post also published today, Craig Gidney, the world expert on Shor optimisations, revealed that he'd been sitting on this very optimisation for a whole year under censorship pressure. Interestingly, André missed a handful of minor optimisations, both from Google's original publication and from improvements found since. It's plausible there's still plenty of juice left to squeeze out of Shor, and this is exactly what the ecdsa[.]fail challenge is about. The verifier program developed for the ZK proof does double duty, automatically filtering for valid submissions. Dozens of compounding small and micro improvements are rolling in. As of the time of writing there's an 8.4% improvement to Google's circuit, as measured by the product of logical qubit count and Toffoli gate count. Nice! The nerdsnipping ran deeper than anyone expected. Over the last few weeks it became clear it extended well beyond André and other quantum experts. Behind the scenes, a small army of amateurs quietly got to work. Inspired by Karpathy-style autoresearch, they turned AI on Shor. Ironically, the verifier program for the ZK proof makes an ideal reward function for AIs. The barrier to entry for this modern style of research is refreshingly low, with several non-experts, even a teenager, finding nice optimisations. Get in touch if you'd like to join a Telegram group with fellow autoresearchers :) Part 2: neutral atoms and qday The story doesn't end with Google. On the same day Google went public, a stealthy startup called Oratomic published its own Shor paper in a coordinated release. It made a splash, ultimately becoming the most upvoted paper on scirate[.]com, a website ranking arXiv papers. Oratomic's claim was wild. By building on Google's logical optimisations and applying custom physical optimisations for neutral atoms, they claimed just 10K physical qubits were sufficient to run Shor's algorithm on secp256k1. That number is mind-bogglingly low. Knowing essentially nothing about neutral atoms when Oratomic's paper landed, I was intrigued and decided to learn more about the tech. I fell straight down the rabbit hole and spent a couple hundred hours on the topic. I got a little obsessed and watched every YouTube video I could find and spoke to a bunch of experts. My conclusion? The tech is real, very real. Even Google recently decided to start a neutral atom lab, a notable pivot from their sole focus on superconducting qubits. If you care about qday, i.e. the day a quantum computer will break the first piece of cryptography in production, neutral atoms demand your attention. I shared some of my learnings on Shor and neutral atoms in a 30min talk at the ZKProof cryptography conference. You can find it on YouTube by searching "zkproof neutral atom". Here's an interesting observation about this duo of breakthrough papers: neither Google nor Oratomic say a word about what their results mean for qday. No timelines. Zero. Nada. That is especially baffling given that the whole point of whitehat quantum cryptanalysis is to inform qday estimations and help the general public make good decisions. So let me attempt to partially fill the silence, similarly to what Scott Aaronson did in his April 29 post. Given everything I know, including scary non-public information, I now put the odds of qday by 2032 at 50%. 10% by 2030. Anecdotally, the US government has its own date: 2035. Originating at the NSA and later adopted by NIST, it's when branches of the US government will be disallowed from using quantum-vulnerable cryptography. In plain language: with hindsight, that date is a joke and should be discounted entirely. I don't see how NIST avoids being forced to pull it forward by years. Part 3: post-quantum cryptography There are good reasons to sound the alarm today, but please do not panic. Rushing carelessly towards immature post-quantum cryptography is a recipe for disaster. IMO a good target date for migration is 2029, roughly 3.5 years out. 2029 happens to be the date selected by Google, Cloudflare, and the Ethereum Foundation. These days most of my time goes to safely migrating Ethereum towards post-quantum cryptography as part of the broader lean Ethereum effort. There's a lot to do. We need to rip out and replace BLS signatures at the consensus layer, KZG commitments at the data layer, and ECDSA signatures at the execution layer. The plan to get there is compelling, and is based on hash-based cryptography. Within the Ethereum Foundation we've developed a Swiss army knife called leanVM (github[.]com/leanEthereum/leanVM) powered by the magic of hash-based SNARKs. Thanks to truly exceptional work by Emile, Thomas, and others, its performance is derisked. Regarding security, leanVM is a jewel, a minimal zkVM crafted for end-to-end formal verification and maximum security. Want to help? There are two $1M initiatives. First, the Proximity Prize (proximityprize[.]org). Solve a long-standing mathematical conjecture in coding theory, improve hash-based SNARKs, and go home a millionaire. Second, the Poseidon Initiative (poseidon-initiative[.]info), offers $1M for breaking Poseidon, the SNARK-friendly hash function.

While showbiz bickers over AI video continuity glitches and educators remain stuck debating AI-generated PPTs, World Models are quietly disrupting non-tech sectors, igniting a radical paradigm shift in clinical medicine and surgical simulation. Why healthcare and not Hollywood? Because Hollywood demands visual perfection, but healthcare mandates absolute physical causality. Traditional medical AI could only act as a static periscope—pinpointing a lesion on an existing scan. Yet disease is inherently dynamic. When a physician prescribes a treatment, they historically lacked a patient-specific, long-term window into the exact downstream changes after the patient ingests the drug. Recent breakthroughs showcased at elite computing summits like ICCV have elevated medical AI from passive visual recognition to a predictive, generative "World Simulator" tailored for prognosis and treatment optimization. In validated clinical applications, this technology leverages potent counterfactual reasoning. Take transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for liver cancer and advanced radiotherapy as prime examples: before finalizing an intervention, a Medical World Model (MeWM) ingests a patient’s current CT imagery to simulate months of dynamic disease progression within its latent space. It cross-aligns multimodal parameters to synthesize high-fidelity visual representations of post-treatment tumor trajectories. Simultaneously, its inverse dynamics model quantifies how varying embolic agents or drug cocktails shift long-term survival curves. Empirically, this "future-simulation" paradigm has propelled clinical decision success rates (F1-score) by 13%, cementing its role as an indispensable AI co-pilot. Today, multimodal medical models are rapidly embedding into hospital HIS/EMR nervous systems, as specialized prognosis simulators push past theoretical boundaries into raw performance validation. The ultimate utility of a World Model isn't coding text or animating fantasy; it is evolving into a rigorous, low-cost simulation infrastructure—serving as a high-stakes safeguard for human decision-making. 【The Grand Forecast】 The successful clinical deployment of Medical World Models proves their unique capacity to "simulate future outcomes before executing current actions." This technical paradigm—trading pure aesthetic appeal for rigid physical and biological causality—is sprawling beyond tech ecosystems at a breakneck speed. Stripping away healthcare, autonomous driving, and media entertainment, which trial-and-error heavy traditional industry do you predict World Models will infiltrate and disrupt next? Will it be macro-climate disaster modeling in modern agriculture, dynamic supply-chain evolution in urban planning, extreme stress-testing in deep-sea aerospace engineering, or an entirely unmapped frontier? Drop your sharpest thesis and reasoning in the comments below. Let’s chart the hidden industrial landscape of the next generation of World Models!

$SATO（SATOETH）项目完整整理总结（2026年5月初起源 ） 1.项目最早是怎么出现的 这是一个纯匿名的fair launch项目。2026年5月初，大概5月3日左右，有匿名开发者在Ethereum上悄悄部署了智能合约。核心是Uniswap V4 Hook加上指数债券曲线（exponential bonding curve），用来自动发行和回购。 项目特点是完全无团队、无预挖、无VC、无路线图、也没有官方社交媒体，强调operatorless（无运营商），代码就是一切。官网 2. 与比特币信仰的相似性 社区很多人把SATO看作“Ethereum上的比特币精神回归”。它高度致敬Satoshi Nakamoto的核心理念： - 像中本聪一样，创始人彻底隐身，代码部署后就不可更改，真正做到代码即法律。 - 稀缺性设计上也向比特币2100万固定供应致敬，通过曲线机制逐步发行，最终接近但永远不会完全达到21M上限。白皮书里直接对比，说比特币的矿工对应SATO的合约。 - 整体是信任最小化的，纯靠数学和智能合约驱动，没有任何人为控制。 很多持有者把它当成“第二比特币”实验，体现长期主义、稀缺信仰和hodl文化。有人甚至大额burn SATO并留言说“别放弃SATO，它会变得像比特币一样稀有”。这让它不只是个meme或实验token，而是带着强烈的比特币式信念。 3. 最早发现与传播 不是交易所先发现的，而是链上早期玩家和DeFi嗅探者先注意到的。合约上线后没多久就开始有零星交易，然后在X上被个人用户挖出来分享。 最早公开帖来自@0xdogacan，在2026年5月3日（周日）晚上21:42 GMT发的。 原文大致是： "ETH side has been very active lately. Uniswap V4 hype keeps going. Today $sato dropped. No idea how far this goes, but I aped a small bag purely on fomo. This is not an alpha !!!" 他还附了一张交易界面截图，语气很随意，就是分享自己FOMO买了一点小仓，还强调这不是alpha。 之后@RuneCrypto_等KOL发了更详细的机制帖，慢慢扩散开来，也带上了比特币信仰的叙事。 4. 交易所跟进 WEEX在5月4日最早开通交易，Poloniex在5月5日上市，其他交易所陆续跟进。它们基本是看到链上热度和交易量起来后才快速跟上的。 5. 总体路径 Silent Deploy（链上悄无声息上线）→ 早期玩家FOMO买入 → X社区自发传播（比特币信仰加持）→ 交易量起来 → CEX上市 → 病毒式扩散。 这就是一个典型的匿名链上比特币精神实验项目，主要靠代码和社区信念推动，而不是营销。所以它是一个纯去中心化的实验。