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DeFi Brief: 🔹Liquid introduces Co-Invest, letting users trade directly through Claude or ChatGPT. 🔹Resolv outlines its post-exploit recovery plan with a renewed focus on RWA vaults. 🔹StakeDAO's vsdCRV vault on Arbitrum exploited for ~$91K after 5.4T unbacked tokens minted; protocol unpaused. 🔹OKX's X Layer releases Exchange OS for deploying spot, perps, and outcome markets. 🔹Fundraises: PopDEX ($30M), Townsquare ($16.25M), Didit ($7.5M), Squid ($6M). 5/6

One thing users don’t always realize about Panora: We’re not just building products for today’s DeFi users. Our 2026 focus is to make Panora the execution layer for on-chain trading on @Aptos - powering better routing, automation, APIs, advanced trading, and AI-driven workflows. Watch the Panora x Aptos clip 👇

🚀 BiFinance IPO Series | 天辰生物-B HK STOCK IPO 👉 As a biotechnology company focused on innovative drug development, 天辰生物-B is committed to creating globally best-in-class and first-in-class therapies for cancer and other serious diseases. 🧬 Biotech × HK Stock IPO 🌍 Bridging Traditional Finance and Web3 📈 IPO Price: 96.06 HKD ⏰ Subscription Starts: 2026/5/28 9:00 Innovation in biotechnology is accelerating toward global capital markets, reshaping the future of healthcare and finance. #BiFinance# #IPO# #HKStocks# #Biotech# #Web3#

XBITDEX × @BullbitDEXHQ We’re excited to announce our partnership with Bullbit — a next-generation perp DEX built on Base, focused on creating an “invisible blockchain” trading experience. Bullbit is rethinking on-chain trading with a CEX-like experience: no seed phrases, no gas fees, and frictionless access powered by passkey login technology. With fast execution, AI Copilot integration, API support, and growing RWA trading pairs, Bullbit is building a simpler and more accessible derivatives trading environment for the next wave of users. As XBIT continues expanding across prediction markets and decentralized trading infrastructure, collaborations with innovative trading ecosystems like Bullbit help push Web3 trading experiences further forward. Together, XBITDEX and Bullbit aim to explore new possibilities in decentralized trading, support broader ecosystem growth, and bring more value and accessibility to users across Web3. 🚀

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$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

I asked Claude to apply a capital cycle analysis to $MU. Here's what it came up with: Net reading: 11 of 14 capital cycle signals are bearish or strongly bearish. The framework reads this as late-cycle, not early/mid-cycle. The two unambiguously bullish signals (equipment lead times, industry concentration) are eroding rather than strengthening. Insights Yielded by Capital Cycle Analysis: 1) "Structural change" rhetoric is itself diagnostic. The capital cycle framework treats coordinated industry-wide CEO claims of regime change as evidence of late-cycle euphoria. The same language was deployed by the same CEOs (Mehrotra at Micron specifically) in 2017–2018 and was wrong. Bayesian base rates argue against accepting the current claims at face value. The previous analysis under-weighted this base-rate evidence. 2) Look at total capital flowing into the supply curve, not just incumbent capex. The structural-change analysis focused on Big Three capex. The capital cycle lens forces aggregation of all capital flowing into memory output: a) Incumbent capex: ~$104B in 2026 across DRAM + NAND; b) CXMT IPO proceeds: ~$4.2B (with state-aligned co-financing many multiples larger); c) YMTC capacity additions (privately financed) d) Substitute technology capital (Cerebras, photonic startups, CXL controller designers) — billions of dollars of equity raised to reduce HBM intensity per dollar of AI compute deployed. When aggregated, total effective supply-side capital formation in 2026 is materially higher than the Big Three capex alone suggests. The supply response is being underestimated. 3) The customer base is doing exactly what late-cycle customers do. Hyperscalers locking in 3–5 year LTAs, pre-ordering 2027 NAND, building strategic inventory — these are not signs of confident long-cycle visibility, they are signs of late-cycle scarcity panic. Historically (DRAM 2017–2018, oil 2008, shipping 2007), customer pre-buying at peak prices is followed by sharp inventory destocking when prices roll over. The structural-change narrative frames LTA penetration as a benefit; the capital cycle frames it as a peak signal. 4) Multiple expansion + earnings expansion = asymmetric downside. The previous analysis flagged the 15x NTM P/E multiple as aggressive (referring to UBS PT raise). The capital cycle framework sharpens this: when both earnings and multiple are at peak, the compound drawdown when either reverts is severe. Memory historically goes from 60% gross margin to negative gross margin and from 10x P/E to <5x P/E. Even a modest reversion to 35% gross margin and 8x P/E from current levels implies a 60–75% equity drawdown for the memory primaries — without any disorderly cycle. 5) Supply lag is real but not unique. The bullish point about EUV/TSV/hybrid bonding lead times is correct but mis-weighted. The capital cycle history of other capital-intensive industries (oil refining, shipbuilding, semiconductor wafer fab) shows that long lead times increase the eventual amplitude of the down-cycle: capital decisions made at peak are not reversible when conditions soften, leading to capacity overhang. Long lead times delay the down-cycle; they do not abolish it. 6) China is the textbook capital-cycle disruptor. In Chancellor's historical case studies (steel, shipbuilding, solar, panels, batteries), state-backed Chinese entrants repeatedly compressed margins of consolidated Western/Korean/Japanese oligopolies once technology gaps narrowed. The U.S. equipment restrictions on China have created the illusion that this dynamic is paused, but the data shows CXMT doubled DRAM share in 18 months and is targeting domestic HBM3. The structural-change analysis appropriately flagged this; the capital cycle framework would weight it heavier as the single most important multi-year risk. 7) Substitute capital formation is its own supply curve. The capital cycle framework treats financing flows into substitutes as a parallel supply expansion. Cerebras' $5.5B IPO, Marvell's $5B Celestial acquisition, the Sandisk/SK hynix HBF JV, and the CXL ecosystem (ALAB, MRVL, MCHP) are collectively financing "HBM intensity reduction." Even if HBM unit demand is met, the value capture per dollar of AI compute is diluted. Capital is flowing in adjacent to the memory primaries to reduce the share of AI spend that ends up in their P&L. 8) The bull case relies disproportionately on demand visibility. The capital cycle warns against demand-anchored theses. The bull case requires AI capex to continue at current levels or accelerate, hyperscaler ROI economics to remain favorable, sovereign AI to scale, and inference workloads not to migrate to non-HBM architectures. Each of these is plausible; the joint probability that all hold through 2028 is materially lower than the headline narrative suggests. 9) Sell-side estimate trajectory is itself a signal. UBS's PT trajectory ($535 → $1,625, a 3x increase in one revision) is historically associated with peak euphoria. Estimate revisions of this magnitude have a poor forward record. The framework would treat the velocity of estimate revisions as a contra-signal. 10) Where the asymmetry sits. The capital cycle framework reframes the risk/reward calculation. Even if the bull thesis is right and earnings hold through 2028, the upside from current levels is modest (multiple expansion has already happened). If the bull thesis is partially wrong — say, 2028 brings 25% peak-to-trough EPS decline rather than 50% — the equity drawdown is still material because multiples will compress simultaneously. The asymmetry is not favourable at current valuations. Bottom line: The structural change thesis was directionally correct but materially overweighted by the original analysis. The capital cycle framework appropriately reweights toward supply-side caution and treats current peak conditions, peak valuations, peak management confidence, and accelerating capital inflows as a coherent set of late-cycle signals. The memory industry has undergone real and beneficial structural change in shape, but the empirical base rate against the "cycle has been abolished" claim is overwhelming. The economic characteristics of memory businesses have improved but have not been transformed into stable, compounding, low-volatility ones — and the next 18–30 months are statistically more likely to mark the end of this up-cycle than a transition to a new regime.

INTERVIEW: near:native’s AI Money Thesis—Intents, Privacy, & Tokenomics | Sal Ternullo @NEARProtocol keeps showing up in strange places: cross-chain wallets, privacy apps, AI infrastructure, and now the emerging agent economy. @sal_ternullo, CEO of @svrn_ai, joins us to explain why he thinks this is not another NEAR pivot, but the original thesis finally coming into focus. They dig into NEAR Intents, AI money, tokenomics, privacy, fee capture, agentic commerce, and why SVRN is trying to commercialize the NEAR ecosystem rather than simply hold the asset. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 2:23 Why NEAR Keeps Showing Up 3:58 Pivot or Return to Roots? 5:34 The “AI Money” Thesis 7:47 Intents, Zashi, and Real Product Market Fit 9:31 Tokenomics, Buybacks, & Value Accrual 12:39 NEAR’s Different Approach From Ethereum 15:54 Fees, Scaling, and First-Party Apps 20:57 Cross-Chain Liquidity as NEAR’s Moat 25:14 The Contrarian Investor Case for NEAR 28:20 Privacy, Enterprises, and AI Agents 36:25 What SVRN Is Building for NEAR 42:48 Investor Sentiment & Final Thoughts

Elon Musk’s goal for The Boring Company is to solve one of the most miserable daily experiences on Earth: traffic Cities are three-dimensional But transportation is still mostly trapped in a two-dimensional surface network Roads, intersections, bottlenecks, traffic lights, accidents, construction, weather - everything gets stacked on the same flat layer until the entire system chokes The Boring Company’s answer is simple but radical: Go underground Build fast, low-cost tunnel networks under major cities and turn transportation into true 3D infrastructure Right now, the focus is on making tunneling dramatically faster and cheaper with machines like Prufrock, which is designed to mine continuously while installing tunnel liner at the same time But the long-term vision goes much further Local Loop tunnels could move people across cities without surface traffic, while future Hyperloop-style systems could connect entire cities at ultra-high speed Imagine going from Los Angeles to San Francisco, New York to Washington D.C., or Dubai to Abu Dhabi in a fraction of today’s travel time - underground, electric, direct, and protected from surface congestion That is the real mission: Building the missing third dimension of transportation This is how you actually attack soul-destroying traffic at civilization scale