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看到两个新闻来聊聊Parlay⬇️ 一个是最近 @Polymarket 开始支持Parlay（Combos/串关）。 另一个是昨天尼克斯队阵马刺的比赛中，Kalshi的做市商SIG录得体育市场上最大的亏损（作为参考，taker的总盈利是 $22.4M）。 而 @Kalshi 在今年早些时候就支持了Combos。今年前四个月里，Kalshi总共有8亿美金的Combos成交量，用户的损失在15%（由SIG和Kalshi一起米西😋） ❓为什么做Parlay的做市商不是一件容易的事情？ 1️⃣ Parlay的定价需要考虑的是各个事件的联合概率。而联合概率只有在事件独立的情况下才可以由各自概率推导出来P=P1 * P2 *... 所以从做市商的角度出发，如果直接按照独立事件定价，会给出过于乐观的价格。举个极端的例子，“尼克斯赢球”和“尼克斯 -5” 两个事件是包含关系，其实只有“尼克斯赢球”是有效的。 2️⃣ Parlay不像传统衍生品一样可以简单的对冲。这是因为可能结果的组合空间随着事件数量增多而爆炸。做市商需要lock的保证金也会是天文数字（当然SIG肯定和Kalshi有py协议） 3️⃣ 要对抗toxic flow。Kalshi的RFQ只藏在了APP端，并且简单的抓包是拿不到rfq的接口。文档中的combos endpoint跟Polymarket的API一样💩 但是还是有高手taker在今年3/24一天赚到 $750k ⚠️所以核心是在考验做市商的Risk Engine。如果你在做permisionless的parlay rfq，我觉得终极解决方案是通过一个类似 World Model 的东西来做 （@ylecun （不是 不然总会有这样那样的correlation被toxic taker给吃掉，特别当你是一家startup的时候（iykyk我在点名谁😼） 💡最近也有一些startup出来做这个问题，比如YC 26 Spring的 @totalistrading 。 创始人 @ericliu 提到过可以通过组合优化不同Parlay之间的事件进行对冲，从而达到类似Portfolio Margin的效果。 早期Pricing可以通过直接在independent prob上加一个discount；rfq也可以通过非常conservative的rule来ban掉包含同类型市场的组合。 特别是当Parlay扩展到其他非sportsbook的事件时，可能做insurance的玩家会更有优势 @UseCorgi @earthianai

India has barred commercial consumers from buying gasoline and diesel from retail fuel stations and imposed limits on daily diesel purchases to prevent local shortages, amid disruptions to global supply chains due to the war in the Middle East

South Korea rallied from a goal down to defeat the Czech Republic 2-1 and make a winning start to their World Cup Group A campaign, much to the delight of their fans and the sizeable local Mexican support they enjoyed in a festive Guadalajara

India has barred commercial consumers from buying gasoline and diesel from retail fuel stations and imposed limits on daily diesel purchases to prevent local shortages, amid disruptions to global supply chains due to the war in the Middle East. More here:

OpenAI uncovered a China-linked campaign that tried to turn Americans against AI data centers by posing as regular people online. The posts focused on rising electricity demand, water use, and the impact of large data centers on local communities. OpenAI investigator Ben Nimmo said the campaign was “jumping onto the bandwagon of a genuine pre-existing domestic debate” rather than creating a new issue. According to OpenAI, the operation tried to “exploit and amplify existing public concerns” but showed little sign of impact. Nimmo said, “We didn’t see any signs that they succeeded.”

BREAKING: The average price of US ground beef rises +13% YoY in May to a record $7.06 per pound, with prices now up +58% since 2020. Steak prices surged +16% YoY to $12.80 per pound, the 2nd-highest on record. This comes as the US cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest in 75 years, with drought conditions, elevated production costs, and a New World screwworm outbreak in Texas limiting supply recovery. Meanwhile, nearly 80% of US cattle are currently located in areas facing dryness or drought, threatening to keep beef prices elevated well into 2027. American consumers are paying record prices for beef.

Qubitor $QBT is a Base-launched post-quantum security ecosystem built around the next migration in crypto security. CA: 0x24D621B1f5f1CF295313C88dC331012140e52D54 The first focus is the account and operations layer: wallets, smart accounts, bridge controls, admin keys, sequencer/operator keys, governance, and upgrade authority. Qubitor Network is developing a post-quantum execution layer track with PQ-native accounts, ML-DSA verification, and no-default-EOA architecture. Quanta Wallet is the official wallet/account layer owned and maintained by Qubitor, built for smart accounts, safer key management, hybrid signing paths, recovery, and future post-quantum upgrades. Quantum resistance is not a single switch. It is a full-stack migration. Liquidity Lock: - Liquidity is locked for 365 days and will be extended 3 months before unlock. Qubitor Foundation: - 3.33% supply locked for 3 months. This allocation is reserved for Tier 1 CEX listing preparation. - 3.33% supply locked for 6 months. This allocation is reserved for ecosystem expansion after launch. Qubitor's direction goes beyond the first market phase, with focus on account-layer security, stronger wallet infrastructure, safer signer models, recovery systems, key rotation, and future post-quantum readiness. This work needs room to grow properly. It involves development, testing, integrations, audits, infrastructure support, and long-term planning. - 3.33% supply locked for 1 year. This is Qubitor's long-term strategic reserve. It is reserved for bigger growth phases such as major partnerships, exchange expansion, market-making support, ecosystem incentives, audits, product development, wallet infrastructure, marketing, grants, and future integrations. The lock keeps this allocation out of early circulation while giving Qubitor room to support larger opportunities when the ecosystem is ready.