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Our WeatherNext 2 AI model from @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch can predict tropical cyclones with an extra day of lead time. Now, we’re open sourcing the model. Published in @Nature, Google researchers demonstrate how it delivers roughly a decade's worth of weather forecasting progress in a single jump. Here's how it works:

Predicting cyclones accurately can help save lives - and every hour of lead time counts. Published in @Nature, our AI model WeatherNext achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in forecasting a storm’s track and intensity, giving us a critical extra 24 hours to prepare on average. 🧵

AI doesn’t “know” facts the way humans do. It predicts what should come next—and sometimes does it so convincingly that we forget to check. Fluent doesn’t always mean correct. 🤖 AI并不是像人一样“知道答案”，它更像是在预测接下来最可能出现的内容。 说得很像真的，也不一定就是真的。 #AI# #AIEducation# #LLM# #MachineLearning# #ChatGPT#

不少圈内玩家都在讨论当下Polymarket的真实行业现状： 普通参与者还停留在手动刷新盘面、紧盯涨跌行情的阶段，各类自动化交易脚本早已在GitHub完全开源对外开放。 整理8套不同赛道免费自动化程序，每一份开源项目都附带完整英文部署文档与功能详细说明： 1. CloddsBot 出自剑桥黑客松参赛项目，整合118套成熟交易策略，覆盖币安跨盘价差套利、趋势追踪、低价合约收割、智能委托、定期定投、到期价差抓取等多种玩法 2. polymarket_lp_tool 主打平台流动性订单自动化管理，核心作用提升流动性挖矿带来的奖励收益 3. Kalshi Weather Model 气象专项机器学习程序，不直接照搬公开气象播报数据，依托多年气象多维度数据集修正预测误差 4. Polymarket-Kalshi Arbitrage Bot 自动扫描两大预测平台之间存在无风险价差的机会，一键执行跨盘套利 5. Polymarket-bot 内置优质交易者筛选机制，自动筛选高胜率、稳定盈利钱包，生成自动化跟单队列 6. Prediction Markets Trading Bot Toolkits 全能型综合工具集合，支持跟单复制、跨市场套利、大户持仓监控、流动性做市、点差复利、体育赛事合约交易等多种功能 7. PolyWeather 国内开发者开发气象专用脚本，实时同步气象预报、机场观测、航空气象数据，生成指定周期城市气象分析报告 8. Awesome Prediction Market Tools 整合三十余款预测市场配套机器人与辅助工具合集 绝大多数开源工具都搭载Dry Run模拟运行模式，可以依托真实行情数据校验策略逻辑，无需动用自有资金实操。 客观来讲，如今的Polymarket早已不只是简单事件押注场所，而是量化代码、AI智能代理、程序开发者聚集的交易赛道。 Polymarket中文访问入口： 提醒各位，不要刚接触就直接实盘操作，务必通读源码、完整跑完模拟测试、吃透策略底层逻辑再做考量。 需要自动化同步高手交易的工具，我日常在用PolyCop： #Polymarket#

Yes, the rumors are true: The more powerful Notebook experience is now 100% rolled out to ALL Pro users. You might be asking... How exactly do I use it? Here are a few queries to try (ofc dependent on your sources). Hot Tip: bookmark this post! Free users too 😉 For Learning: "Create 5 quizzes of ascending difficulty focusing on a different topic from my sources" "Turn my raw lecture notes into a formatted PDF study guide complete with a 5-question practice quiz." "Add all of the URLs from this class syllabus as sources" For Business: "Calculate revenue growth across each product line and plot the trends" "Read our marketing brief, search the web for competitors, and recommend how we should tune our messaging" For Personal: "I uploaded a bunch of receipts from our kitchen renovation, make a spreadsheet to track all the work and costs" "Help me analyze this property purchase. Look up recent market performance in the neighborhood, predict trends, and make a spreadsheet to model all the data you find"

Kelsey Plum makes her debut for the Phoenix Mercury tonight against the Chicago Sky at Wintrust Arena. Here’s the game preview, prediction, injury report, and how to watch, stream for free.

#Polymarket’s# monthly user retention outperforms more than 85 percent of 275 sampled crypto projects, including DeFi protocols, wallets, and exchanges. While many platforms lose users after the first month, its cohorts show meaningfully higher rates of return trading.— Large early trades above the 90th percentile and at least $100 achieve only a 52.3 percent hit rate on final outcomes. That is a statistically detectable but economically modest edge over the roughly 50 percent baseline of all resolved trades. In the 2024 presidential markets, about 40 percent of traders participated exclusively in Trump contracts, and 71.8 percent touched Trump YES at least once. Only 0.7 percent of participants were active across more than two candidates, revealing extreme specialization rather than broad portfolio trading. — Kyle’s lambda in the same election market fell from roughly 0.518 in the early months to about 0.01 by October. As volume expanded, the market’s vulnerability to price impact declined by more than an order of magnitude. — Trading activity in the final quarter showed a clear intraday pattern, peaking between 09:00 and 20:00 UTC. The most frequent traders displayed even sharper concentration during U.S. market hours. — Across resolved markets since 2023, overall predictive accuracy on @Polymarket sits near 73 percent and rises to roughly 84 percent in markets exceeding $100,000 in volume. Only about 3.4 percent of markets faced formal disputes, most of them triggered by ambiguous wording rather than contested facts.

Just like I predicted: Kimi K3's license requires inference providers to enter a separate commercial agreement (ARR > $20M). Kimi might be the first company doing a "fabless" business model. -- 验证了我几周前的预言: Kimi 的开放权重模型 K3 ，有单独的商业授权协议，在这样的协议下，模型训练和推理可以在商业上分开，就和半导体设计与制造一样。 围绕着开放权重模型会有一整套的生态和公司，比如专门从事为企业应用微调的，专门做 prefill-only 适配的等等。这种生态系统层面的力量，是封闭厂商完全没法匹配的。

'决策类'的提示词： /predict — 预测最可能的结果 /premortem — 假设失败后分析失败原因 /redteam — 提前找出弱点 /socrates — 用聪明问题让你自己得出答案 /tradeoffs — 看清楚得失 /worstcase — 现实的最坏打算 /gut — 凭直觉判断

🇺🇸 Scaramucci predicted this week, CLARITY "dies a brutal death" if it doesn't reach the Senate floor. Scaramucci added, that executives like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong could start building offshore to avoid regulatory oppression. 💬