Elon Musk was asked how long until there is regular travel to Mars. His answer was not about rockets.
He said the threshold that actually matters is whether Mars survives if the ships from Earth stop coming. That means every input: air, food, fuel, spare parts, medicine. He compared it to a long sea voyage where the only thing missing is vitamin C. One missing item and the colony dies on schedule.
The ships could stop for reasons that have nothing to do with Mars. A war. A decline. An asteroid. His line: civilisation on Earth can end with a bang or a whimper.
That is insurance logic, and it is the honest way to describe the Mars plan. Every policy has a premium, a probability and a payout. The payout here is the survival of the species, so the premium is nearly impossible to argue against. The probability is the part nobody can price.
Which creates a strange corporate problem. The premium gets paid by companies whose shareholders will not be the ones rescued if the policy ever pays out. SpaceX is private, so its investors signed up for that. A public company could not easily spend decades of free cash flow on a backup planet and explain it on a quarterly call.
The other catch is that redundancy is only worth what you spend testing it. A city is not self-sustaining because the plan says so. It is self-sustaining the day the ships stop and everyone lives.
So the number worth watching is not the landing date. It is the date Mars stops needing Earth. Nobody is selling a ticket to that.
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X AI ALGORITHM UPDATE (BIG ONE) 🚨
X updated their open source algorithm yesterday and the biggest number in it is gone: copy link went from 20 to 0 points. Small accounts should focus on: posts people like, reply to and stay on (so stop counting on link copies)
tl;dr:
- on Nov 13 X's open source code set the score for copying a post's link to 0
- copy link: 20 → 0
- it was the top score in the whole system, 4x a reply
- the code also names a "copy link bait" spam check
- likes (0.708), replies (5) and DM shares (5) didn't move
full details:
- The number that's gone
Since I started reading X's open source code in August, one number sat at the top: 20, for someone tapping share and copying your post's link. Nothing else came close.
As of the Nov 13 release, it's 0.
X still guesses who'll copy your link. It just multiplies that guess by 0 now.
X didn't explain it. It's just what the code says.
(I check the open source algo daily with Claude and share updates with you)
- Cross it off your list
My own checklist called copy link the biggest number. Last week's post said it too.
It was true then. It isn't now. If you saved that list, cross that line out.
- The "copy link bait" check
X's code now mentions a spam check called "copy link bait". In the code it adds a spam label to the post, and that label already keeps a post out of strangers' feeds.
It only shows up in a test, so I can't see if it's running or how strict it is.
My read: X saw people baiting link copies, so it turned the score off and built something to catch the bait. That's a read, the code doesn't say why.
- Why that matters if you're small
If your plan was posts people copy the link to, that plan now earns 0 in X's ranking.
A copied link can still bring people in from outside X. It just doesn't push your post up anymore.
What still pays: likes at 0.708 (the highest ever), people staying on your post, replies at 5 and back and forth with mutuals at 20.
- Also new: photo and video tags
If a post has a spam label, people you tag in its photo or video who don't follow you won't get notified. Same idea as last week's rule for replies.
- What didn't change
Every other score. Your new posts still get their extra push in the first 2 hours and first 200 views, and early likes still pick which one gets it.
Here's a recap of what you should be doing:
- aim for likes, replies and time spent, the copy link score is gone
- a DM share still earns 5, same as a reply or a quote
- likes sit at 0.708, never higher
- time on your post keeps counting at its best rate yet
- 10+ seconds after someone taps in adds 0.385
- write your replies yourself, under big accounts most of all
- give people a reason to hang around your profile
- in videos the opening seconds carry it, an open alone scores 0
- posts read to the end help X find you strangers
- smaller accounts (below 50K) get a shot at a spot near 16 for a fresh original
- early likes decide which new post gets that spot
- post when your followers are awake, the push lasts 2 hours and 200 views
- mutuals going back and forth earn 20, so follow back the regulars
- only your originals ever get shown to strangers
- like 1 and like 32 each unlock another way to reach strangers
- one strong post per feed, your second only counts 62%
- clips longer than 10 seconds for the video lists
- a post likely to win you a follow gets +4
- give your pinned post a look, it can affect the whole account
What you should NOT be doing:
- counting on copy link shares, they score 0 now
- baiting link copies, the code names a spam check for exactly that
- a spam label also stops your photo tags reaching non-followers
- AI-written replies under big accounts, "llm slop" is a flag X uses
- copy-paste replies, labeled ones skip non-followers' notifications
- chasing taps, 0.274 and dropping
- drifting off your topic, each probable "not interested" takes 53.07 away
- videos people open and leave, the open itself earns 0
- posting at 3am, it wastes the 2 hour push
- expecting replies and reposts to reach strangers
- an insult label, it hides that post from non-followers
- earning a misinfo or low quality label, which adds a warning and locks strangers out of liking or sharing
- 3 adult photos or videos among your latest 5 posts, that puts a label on you
- forgetting videos get rechecked at 64 and 512 likes
- one account label and strangers stop seeing you
- pinning a link to a site X rates badly, that can mean a label for a week
- posting your own old words again risks the copypasta flag
- a low quality link plus tagged strangers reads as spam
- bait for engagement, big or small it gets a label
- several posts back to back, they split the same feed
- hashtag piles, they do nothing
- bookmarks for reach, they score 0
- hoping a 3 day old post still lands in For You, it stops at 2 days
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Vendí el piso de mi madre el año pasado. Tenía dos ofertas. Un fondo: 212.000€ al contado, sin visita. Y una pareja joven con un bebé: 195.000€ y una carta escrita a mano. "Queremos que nuestra hija crezca en una casa donde se nota que alguien fue feliz." Mi madre vivió allí 46 años. Perdí 17.000€ y les vendí a ellos. Ayer, un vecino del portal me mandó un enlace:
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