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Standing in front of the Burj Khalifa again. Goosebumps. Around three years ago I was here talking to a crypto bro based in the UAE. He told me most of his friends use @TrustWallet. I said that was impossible. It lacked this feature, that chain, that polish. He just smiled and said, “That’s what I see people using.” Coming back to the same place, I can only laugh at my own naivety. Trust Wallet is more performant now. The UX is better. We support more chains and features than ever. But that’s not why people stay. They stay because they trust. They trust the brand. They trust self-custody. They trust that the team will do right by them. Features can be copied. Performance can be improved. Trust takes years to build. We’re nine years in. Still early. Still entrusted by millions. What we carry forward isn’t just a product. It’s the trust of the people who chose us. It’s always Day 1. Thank you for your trust.

Sam Altman asked Elon Musk what he'd do if he were 22 again. Not "build Tesla." Not "start a rocket company." Two words: be useful That's the whole framework. It sits on two questions almost nobody asks themselves. How much better is your solution than what already exists? How many people can it actually help? Multiply the two. That's your real impact. Every company that has ever changed the planet started by solving a useful problem for a specific group. Nobody who set out to "change the world" ever did. The companies that transformed anything started by making one boring, useful thing 10x better. 22-year-olds looking for a moonshot miss the actual moonshot sitting in the boring problem next to them. Be useful. Ship it to a small group. See if they can't live without it. Repeat. What's the most important problem you think still doesn't have a real solution? Drop it in the replies.

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股票市场效率无法像博彩市场那样直接验证，因为股票不存在固定揭晓时间，真实价值始终取决于未来现金流，因此金融学始终存在Joint Hypothesis Problem：任何异常收益都无法证明市场无效，因为也可能只是定价模型本身错误。同时作者区分了“Prices are Right”和“No Free Lunch”两个概念，价格存在偏离，并不意味着能够稳定套利，因为套利成本可能高于错误定价本身。 连续双向竞价（Continuous Double Auction）本身就是市场效率的重要来源。Hayek、Vernon Smith以及Zero-Intelligence Trader研究共同说明，即便参与者并不聪明，只要交易机制合理，市场仍能快速逼近有效价格。因此市场制度的重要性甚至可能超过市场参与者本身的能力。 股票市场真正进入“群体疯狂”的根源，是认知多样性的崩塌。当投资者逐渐形成相同叙事、相同时间框架以及相同交易规则时，市场开始偏离价值。长期投资者倾向于围绕现金流定价，而短周期投资者更容易外推近期价格，因此实验中短周期市场持续形成泡沫。Narrative进一步强化这种过程，使情绪、故事与价格互相反馈，最终形成Boom或Bust，而这种崩塌往往呈现非线性，一点点认知收敛即可引发巨大价格波动。 Michael Mauboussin最终给出的交易框架可以浓缩为一句话：市场绝大多数时间体现的是群体智慧，因此价格通常有效；真正值得交易的机会来自群体智慧失效之后的群体疯狂。交易员真正需要监测的并非价格本身，而是认知多样性是否正在消失。 实践中，极端情绪（Sentiment）、剧烈价格运动（Major Price Move）以及极端估值（Extreme Valuation）同时出现，是认知多样性崩塌最常见的表现，也是市场最容易出现重大反转和超额收益机会的位置。

Milton Friedman said we can't have free immigration and a welfare state He was wrong Turns out that if you create pathways for illegal immigrants to vote, then actually, 100% of the time you INEVITABLY end up with both a welfare state and free immigration Because incentives determine actions Whichever politicians realize they can essentially use taxpayer dollars to fund welfare to import voters will exploit this hack ruthlessly 1. Offer welfare 2. Allow illegal immigration 3. Let illegal immigrants vote (they will 100% of the time vote for more welfare) 4. Win office 5. Raise taxes, offer more welfare, repeat It's a self-reinforcing feedback loop Allowing illegal immigrants to count in the census and vote cements this loop Literally only 12 states require proof of citizenship to register to vote. Look it up. It's horrifying. That is why 15m illegal immigrants came across the border in 4 yrs. It is game theory the only smart thing to do This ends in disaster

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