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SpaceX starts trading on Nasdaq tomorrow. Amazon 1997. Tesla 2010. SpaceX 2026. Looking back from 2040 — which IPO do you wish you'd held? I'll answer for myself: all of them. But SpaceX might be the only one that keeps humanity alive.

马斯克曾告诉年轻的 Sam Altman，他 80% 的时间不是花在商业上，而是花在工程和设计上。 SpaceX 火箭的每一个细节他都要懂，Mars 殖民架构他亲自推演。到了 Tesla，他真正痴迷的甚至不是车本身，而是工厂的工程能力。 因为他后来意识到，真正重要的是 machine that builds the machine，也就是“制造机器的机器”。这件事，至少比造车本身难两个数量级。

Jamie Dimon called Elon Musk "the Edison of our time"! "I remember visiting Elon in Tesla like 15 years ago. A whole new way of building cars, vertical integration... Now you have SpaceX @SpaceX. More than 650 rockets. Almost 10,000 Starlink satellites up there. Starlink 3 is coming, which hopefully will replace some of these undersea cables It's been an extraordinary 24 years watching Elon grow over time. And now you're making a massive leap into the future" 🚀

TOMORROW SPACEX GOES PUBLIC AT A $1.77T VALUATION. THE LAST TIME ELON MUSK TOOK A COMPANY PUBLIC, A REPORTER LISTED EVERY REASON THE DEAL WAS A "LEAP OF FAITH." The company was not making a profit. No mass production. No distribution. Just a prototype. Here was Musk's response, on Tesla IPO day, June 29, 2010: "The smartest money in the world is betting on Tesla. They must have a reason for doing so because obviously, to go public and increase the range and increase the price in this market is not easy, and these are very well-informed people." Then the reporter pressed him on the losses. Musk fired back: "If Tesla were just making the sports car and doing our powertrain supply business, we would be profitable as a company. We're expanding by 3,000% in the space of 2 to 3 years. It's just not possible for the company as a whole to be profitable with that rate of expansion. It's not some fundamental flaw in the Tesla business." Tesla $TSLA priced at $17, opened at $19, and closed at $23.89. Up 41% on day one. The deal raised $226M. At the time, Musk himself had just $650,000 in liquid assets per public filings and was taking loans from friends to cover personal expenses. Almost everything he had was tied up in Tesla. A $10,000 investment in Tesla at the IPO would be worth ~$3.41 million today. BlackRock alone just ordered at least $5B worth of SpaceX shares.

Elon Musk 最近和 SpaceX 团队坐下来，讲了一套非常疯狂的路线图： 如何把人类推进到 Kardashev Type 2 civilization 核心不是单纯去火星 而是把火箭、卫星、AI 数据中心、芯片制造、月球工业和深空能源串成一张网 他提到，人类现在使用的太阳能量，还不到太阳总输出的一万亿分之一 在 Kardashev scale 上，我们几乎还没有真正“注册” 所以 SpaceX 的目标，不只是发射更多火箭 而是大幅提高人类能调用的能源和算力规模 Starship 是这套系统的起点 Musk 的逻辑很简单： 汽车、飞机、船、自行车，大家都默认可以重复使用 但火箭过去一直是一次性消耗品 如果飞机每飞一次就要扔掉，几乎没人坐得起飞机 所以 fully reusable rocket 是关键 SpaceX 现在已经承担了地球轨道发射质量的 85–90% 但这还不是 Starship 真正开始后的状态 他们内部目标是： 从每年 2,500 吨入轨，提升到每年 100 万吨 大概 3 年内做到 然后是 AI 数据中心上天 按 Musk 的说法，SpaceX 目标是在明年年底前，把 1GW AI compute 放到轨道上 之后每年 10x： 2.5 年到 10GW 3.5 年到 100GW 最后到 terawatt 级别 AI satellite 的结构反而没那么复杂： solar panels radiator 一排 GPUs 最难的部分，Starlink 已经解决过了 现在只是把它做大 很多人以为 orbital compute 会有很高延迟 但他提到，从轨道到地面的 latency 大约是 3ms light 每毫秒大约走 300km 所以低轨算力并不一定离你很远 再往后，就是 terafab Musk 提到的规模是 100 million square feet 大约是 Tesla Gigafactory Texas 的 10 倍 因为如果未来要做到 terawatt 级 AI compute，现有全球芯片产业的产能级别可能不够 所以他们选择自己做 但要超过 terawatt，就要去月球 没有大气 地球六分之一重力。 可以用月球材料制造 solar panels 和 radiators 然后用 electromagnetic rail gun，也就是 mass driver，把 AI satellites 发射到 deep space 不需要火箭 这也是他路线图里的下一步 如果月球上已经有足够大规模的工业和发射能力，那普通人去月球也会变得更现实 Musk 原话是： “我认为每个人都应该至少去一次月球。” 整套方案听起来很科幻 但它的底层逻辑其实很一致： fully reusable rocket → 发射成本下降 → 大规模卫星网络 → 轨道 AI 数据中心 → 太空能源和通信 → terafab 制造能力 → 月球工业 → deep space infrastructure 很多人看 SpaceX，看到的是火箭公司 但 Musk 讲的更像是一套面向 Type 2 civilization 的基础设施系统 SpaceX 最终会被理解成一家航天公司，还是人类进入太空能源和太空算力时代的基础设施公司？

I’m 60 years old and retired from JPMorgan. My monthly income is $105,000. My June advice: $ORCL (Oracle) — Don’t buy $SNDK (SanDisk) — Don’t buy $FUTU (Futu Holdings) — Don’t buy $TSLA (Tesla) — Buy at $370–$376 $NVDA (NVIDIA) — Buy at $188–$195 $MU (Micron Technologys) — Buy at $880–$886 $MRVL (Marvell Technology) — Buy at $243–$250 People ask, Why don’t you charge? I’ve made enough. Sharing is my passion ,that’s why I post for fre.