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聪明的朋友可能发现了，虽然BTC最低触及了66+, 但很多山寨币并没有下跌太多，比如 $Pump一夜价格没有任何波动。 这就是我经常说的理论，山寨没有那么多货可出了，也没有做市价值。 目前山寨币指数在54，以往的下跌末期都会降到30以下。 这不是偶然，是未来的趋势，BTC的波动会大于一些山寨币，反而更适合交易者操作，山寨的流动性逐渐被吸干，一些龙头会有更好的上涨，大部分逐渐死亡，不归零但没人交易。 所以抄底时也许可以多考虑一些标的。 Sharp observers might have noticed that even though BTC dipped to the $66,000+ range, many altcoins didn’t fall all that much—for instance, the price of $PUMP remained completely flat overnight. This aligns with a theory I often discuss: there simply isn’t much supply left to dump in the altcoin market, nor is there much value in market-making for these assets. The current altcoin index sits at 54; historically, toward the end of a market decline, this figure typically drops below 30. This is no coincidence—it’s a sign of a broader trend. BTC’s volatility is now exceeding that of many altcoins, making it a better vehicle for traders. Meanwhile, liquidity in the altcoin space is gradually drying up. While a few leading tokens may still see significant gains, the vast majority are effectively dying—not necessarily hitting zero, but simply becoming illiquid with no trading activity. Therefore, when looking for "buy-the-dip" opportunities, you might want to be more selective about which assets you target.

After many years in top machine learning organizations, with friends at frontier labs, I still consider Tesla’s ML engineers the best—the only ones I would trust with my life. Unsatisfied with theory, they scrutinize every detail until it is proven in reality. They demand real-world miles, not charts. This culture exists nowhere else. This week marks another anniversary at Tesla. I am honored to work with you all for many years to come.

Been seeing people use the words raider, shiller, KOL and marketer like they all mean the same thing? 👀 Let’s talk about it today by 8PM I’ll be hosting a Space where we’ll break down the real difference between these roles, what each one actually does, and most importantly, how you can stand out and become valuable in Web3. No unnecessary theory. Just real conversations, experiences and practical tips. If you’re trying to grow your name, get noticed, land gigs or build a real presence in Web3, this is one you don’t want to miss. Pull up and let’s talk. 🎙️🔥 Set a reminder for my upcoming Space!

What Menlo has done over the last 24 months is exceptional. Yes, they did Anthropic’s round at $4BN that will make them $50BN+ as a firm. NICE! But they then took that and went f****** hard. They do Lovable, Higgsfield, Legora. They compounded the brand win of Anthropic to cement their position from respectfully a slightly ageing firm to being a dominant venture leader at the forefront with Thrive, a16z, Benchmark etc. It is incredible to see and I sat down with @venkyganesan to shoot the s*** on this. 1. Every Seed Investment Is an Option Bet Seed-stage deals function as financial options to discover true outlier potential before committing major capital. VCs must construct a broad enough portfolio to secure sufficient at-bats, only sizing up their position when quantifiable, revenue-based metrics prove an outlier has emerged. 2. What Is the First Sign of the AI Wave Cracking? Market cycles rarely collapse due to equity write-downs. They fracture when levered debt defaults occur. When market participants take on heavy leverage during an AI boom, precise timing becomes as critical as being directionally correct, making debt obligations the primary failure vector when cycles turn. 3. Why Every VC Must Now Prioritize IRR Every startup in the current landscape writes a structural tax to the Mag 7 and hyperscalers for compute and foundation models. Because LPs can buy index exposure to those same public tech giants without fees or carry, private VCs must generate outsized IRR performance, beating public markets by at least 1,000 basis points, to justify private capital allocation. 4. Why LPs Wanting Smaller Funds and Slower Deployment Is BS LPs cannot demand both smaller fund sizes and multi-year deployment paces in the middle of a generational platform shift. Because AI startups face immense capital requirements to scale compute, VC firms that refuse to deploy capital rapidly will watch competitors step in and capture the category winners. 5. The Theory of Reflexivity and How It's Causing Markups Reflexivity creates self-reinforcing loops where fast revenue growth triggers rapid valuation markups, attracting elite human and financial capital that further accelerates growth. However, when copycat investors chase markups for momentum rather than underlying fundamentals, reflexive valuation bubbles inflate until market realities force an inevitable correction. 6. Sometimes You Pay Up Because You Have Unique Insight Premium entry prices are not always the result of irrational bidding. They often stem from an investor's ability to recognize a fundamentally larger total addressable market than the consensus. When a VC possesses unique conviction around an expanding market opportunity, paying above current rates reflects calculated foresight rather than price-taking behavior. 7. There's No Limit to What a Person Can Do as Long as They Don't Care Who Gets the Credit Personal ego remains one of the most expensive liabilities in venture capital and company building. True long-term success requires setting aside individual notoriety, focusing ruthlessly on generating LP returns, and empowering teammates and founders without worrying about who receives the public credit. (links in comments)

🚨🚨 THE $1 QUADRILLION XRP THEORY IS HERE 🔥XRP AS THE “NEW OIL” OF GLOBAL DIGITAL FINANCE? IF XRP BECOMES A MAJOR SETTLEMENT ASSET, THE MARKET-CAP DISCUSSION CHANGES COMPLETELY. 👀🚀💰 $XRP #XRP# #XRPArmy# #XRPCommunity# #Crypto# #DigitalAssets# #Viral#

Day 7 of 100 Days of AI 🤖 Guess what’s coming on Oct 5? 👀 We’re revealing something new piece by piece. Put your detective hat on, connect the dots, and submit your best theory. 🧩 🏆 15 winners share $3,000 in USDC 🧠 1 hint per day

因为为难牵手，不接电话，骑手直接灭门了。 跑单变跑刀。 经济不好戾气太大了。前两年我就说经济越差，社会犯罪率会越来越多。 “经济压力/紧张理论（Strain Theory）”。 现在一点事情就走极端。

Grok @bot will be insanely powerful if it’s completely model agnostic and the @SpaceXAI simply hyper-focuses on creating the greatest orchestrator AI of all time. That orchestrator AI will know what model is best at what at the best possible cost and fastest speed, and based on your prompt, Grok Bot will automatically use the best model(s). And over time SpaceXAI can hyper-optimize their own models to be extremely good at executing tasks in Grok Bot. It’s getting WAY too hard for humans to know which AI model is best at what already, especially at what cost and at what speed. The only way to do this properly is with another AI that automatically does all of this for you. And since SpaceX is gonna own so much compute, in theory, those other models will likely be served from their own data centers either on the ground or in space! $SPCX