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Have you ever seen an ancient map that mirrors the human skeleton? The Northern Wei-era Mount Meru Map depicts the layered cosmic landscape, concealing the ancients’ philosophy of the universe and life—a mystery that has endured for centuries.

After four extra months of massive effort, we now have a complete, rigorous theory-of-everything. The 6 core papers explain literally everything, including why the Universe exists, who made it, and why it is the way it is. Big thanks to all contributors🙏

Extraterrestrial Satellite Communication Rin Tohsaka "The contract is complete. Relax, I'm not really one for strict hierarchies... well, not for most people, anyway. Got that, my Servant?" Hailing from a world beyond our universe where magic and magecraft coexist, this young mage tirelessly hones her skills. She is the Sixth Head of the Tohsaka family, a prestigious lineage of Fuyuki City mages. Currently studying under a renowned master at the "Clock Tower" who has deep ties to the Holy Grail War, hopping across dimensions and planes just to finish an internship assignment... "Huh? Where am I? Why isn't there any magical energy here at all...? The Ho-Holy Grail? I'm saved! Sorry, just gonna borrow this!" Original Concept Artist: Takashi Takeuchi ——————————————————— "Imagenae Holy Grail War": Honkai: Star Rail × Fate/stay night [Unlimited Blade Works] Collaboration will officially launch on July 24. Starting from 12:00, July 24 (server time), Trailblazers can use Star Rail Special Passes to participate in the collaboration Warp and obtain the limited 5-star character Rin Tohsaka (Erudition: Quantum). Please refer to the follow-up announcements for detailed information.

Elon Musk just measured your existence by how many times your atoms have been inside a dying star. Musk: “How many times have your atoms been at the center of a star? I think it’s like on average three or four times.” Every atom in your body has already survived the core of a star. Multiple times. Crushed under pressures that would flatten planets. Superheated to millions of degrees. Blown apart in explosions so violent they forged new elements. Then gravity pulled those scattered pieces back together. New stars formed. And the cycle repeated. For 13.8 billion years, your atoms have been fuel for the most violent process in the universe. And they are not done. Musk: “In terms of existence as measured by the number of times your atoms will be at the center of a star, we seem to be roughly halfway.” Halfway. Your atoms have been through the furnace three or four times. They will go through three or four more. But right now, in this impossibly thin sliver between cycles, those atoms are doing something they have never done before. They are conscious. For billions of years before you, they burned through stellar cores with no awareness. No memory. No sense of what they were or where they had been. After you, they will return to that state. Unconscious matter drifting through space until the next star claims them. This is the only moment in their entire journey where they can look back at the stars that made them and understand. Musk: “If you want to look at the big picture… that’s the really big picture.” The big picture is not that we are small. Everyone already knows that. The big picture is that we are temporary witnesses to a process that does not need witnesses. Stars do not need observers to burn. Atoms do not need anyone to understand where they have been. The universe ran for billions of years with no one in it. It will run for billions more after the last conscious thing disappears. But right now, matter is examining itself. That has never happened before in 13.8 billion years. You are not a person who happens to contain ancient atoms. You are ancient atoms that briefly figured out how to think. The universe did not design consciousness. It designed stars. Consciousness was the accident. And the accident is half over.

🌟 The total transfer volume on TRON has surpassed $27 trillion. TRON continues to showcase its potential in revolutionizing the digital realm. Dive deeper into the TRON universe & discover more through TRONSCAN.

Pretty profound for an ipo filing: “For the entirety of its existence, human civilization has lived on a single celestial body: Earth. The current paradigm, in which human civilization is confined to one planet, exposes humanity to existential threats that are unpredictable and uncontrollable on a planetary scale. By moving beyond the only home we have ever known, we ensure species- level redundancy and that the light of consciousness will not be tied to a single planet subject to the inevitable hazards of a harsh and vast universe. We do not want humans to have the same fate as dinosaurs.” - SpaceX S-1 @elonmusk

I explained the Chinese real estate & debt crisis in much detail in 2024 on my Substack. Nothing has changed since. China is in what we call "the largest balance-sheet recession the world has ever seen". And it will take years to get out of it and assuming the CCP's investment-led growth model does not dig the next hole in the meantime - a likely. The FT published added some colour to it two days ago: "Housing is important to every economy. But to China, it’s extra important. According to the PBoC, 96% of urban households own a home, and 41% own at least two. The average household owns 1.5 properties. And as such, property constitutes around 70% of China’s private wealth. The comparable figure for the US is around 30%. So when Chinese property prices fall, the authors make a pretty compelling case that this has all sorts of particularly bad economic spillovers. And fall they have. The negative wealth effect is substantial, and “effects are amplified by elevated household debt, much of which consists of mortgage obligations”. This — and the weaker income expectations that the falls generate — goes some way to suppressing consumption. Moreover, declining land-sale revenues constrain local government budgets, “limiting their capacity to finance developmental projects and maintain existing public infrastructure”. And this is even before any credit impacts from rising non-performing loans and mortgages on bank balance sheets are considered. Tl;dr: bad bad bad. Of course, China isn’t the first soon-to-be-global-economic-hegemon-East-Asian-power staring down demographic oblivion to have piled its savings into a property boom. Back in 1991, the world was fretting over the rise and rise of Japan. And the Japanese were buying Japanese residential real estate at outlandish prices. Japan’s house prices peaked back in 1991 and spent the next 30 years on a downward trajectory. We’re only a few years into the Chinese property bust, and its ultimate trajectory is both unknown and unknowable. But Rogoff and Yang have pulled together some cool data they kindly shared with Alphaville, allowing us to make this chart below. So far, it looks like prices in Chinese cities are falling at around the same pace as they did over the first five-to-10 years of Japan’s bust. Japan’s property crash is associated with a lost decade (or two) of economic growth. In the 10 years leading up to 1991, Japanese real annual GDP growth averaged 4.4%. In the subsequent 10 years it averaged only 0.9% per annum. The same numbers for China, with 2021 marking its property zenith, are 7.0% per year and 4.6% per year (so far). If the IMF’s forecasts turn out right, this latter number will fall to around 4.0% per annum. While the levels are different, the before-and-after drop looks comparable. Was it housing wot dun it? Rogoff and Yang reckon that a 40% decline in house prices translates into a total consumption loss of 2-4% of GDP. Not nothing, but not a single answer explaining life, the universe and wiggles in the decadal pace of real economic growth. To get here, they construct a historical dataset comprising subnational data across 47 prefectures, and input and output data at granular industry levels. They then use this to examine the macroeconomic implications of Japan’s real estate bust. And the authors argue that: a housing bust can generate substantial adverse effects on the economy via real channels. . . . overbuilding during the boom can trigger a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Unlike financial channels, which amplify shocks through leverage, bank balance sheets, credit constraints, or fire sales, real channels operate directly through investment, consumption, labour markets, or productivity. In Japan’s case, the housing market collapse depressed activity through three key real channels: investment, consumption, and sentiment. This is all pretty intuitive. But using city-level and household-level Chinese data plus some whizzy maths, they put meat on the bone for these three channels. They find that Chinese cities that overbuilt housing the most are less keen on new building, suppressing investment. Sounds legit. Chinese household consumption is estimated to be more responsive to house price changes than it was in either Japan or the US given its outsized role in private wealth. And it looks to the authors like people have scrambled to rebuild precautionary savings they thought they had amassed in property. Understandable. Then, on the sentiment side, Rogoff and Yang use an LLM to gauge market perceptions of the housing market. And by incorporating city-specific perceptions, they double the estimated effect of house price changes on consumption. Huh. While China is not Japan, 1991 was not 2021, and a *lot* of other things are/were going on, it’s interesting to see that the overall magnitude and pace of property price falls — as well as the aggregate drop in the pace of headline GDP growth — has (so far) been spookily similar. And as for the big question — are we there yet? "If China’s adjustment unfolds in a similar way as Japan’s, it would mean China has not gone half way through the transition. By contrast, if China’s path is eventually comparable to the United States, it appears to have already covered roughly two-thirds of the adjustment before reaching the bottom." So more to come.