Elon Musk was asked how long until there is regular travel to Mars. His answer was not about rockets.
He said the threshold that actually matters is whether Mars survives if the ships from Earth stop coming. That means every input: air, food, fuel, spare parts, medicine. He compared it to a long sea voyage where the only thing missing is vitamin C. One missing item and the colony dies on schedule.
The ships could stop for reasons that have nothing to do with Mars. A war. A decline. An asteroid. His line: civilisation on Earth can end with a bang or a whimper.
That is insurance logic, and it is the honest way to describe the Mars plan. Every policy has a premium, a probability and a payout. The payout here is the survival of the species, so the premium is nearly impossible to argue against. The probability is the part nobody can price.
Which creates a strange corporate problem. The premium gets paid by companies whose shareholders will not be the ones rescued if the policy ever pays out. SpaceX is private, so its investors signed up for that. A public company could not easily spend decades of free cash flow on a backup planet and explain it on a quarterly call.
The other catch is that redundancy is only worth what you spend testing it. A city is not self-sustaining because the plan says so. It is self-sustaining the day the ships stop and everyone lives.
So the number worth watching is not the landing date. It is the date Mars stops needing Earth. Nobody is selling a ticket to that.
Honnêtement, je doute de plus en plus de la crédibilité de nos médias en France, bordel.
Ces dernières années, la télé française nous répétait tous les soirs que la Chine était un pays "totalement fermé, hostile aux étrangers et au bord de l'effondrement".
Puis la Chine a ouvert ses frontières sans visa aux Européens, et mon fil d'actualité est rempli de vidéos de Français qui voyagent à Shanghai ou Chongqing : des rues ultra-propres, des TGV pas chers et à l'heure, et la possibilité de marcher seul à 2h du matin sans craindre de se faire braquer.
Et voilà, bordel, ça recommence.
D'un côté, des experts sur nos plateaux télé qui prédisent la chute de la Chine.
De l'autre, les images réelles des Européens sur place qui font passer Paris pour le tiers-monde.
Je n'ai pas étudié l'histoire de la Chine et je ne comprends rien aux grandes théories politiques, je crois juste ce que je vois de mes propres yeux.
J'ai une question toute bête :
Pourquoi nos médias mettent-ils autant d'énergie à diaboliser un pays moderne ?
Ils ont peur qu'on réalise que d'autres vivent mieux que nous et qu'on demande des comptes à nos propres politiciens ?
Why Elon Musk believes we could colonize the entire galaxy in a million years
To Elon Musk, it's not even a hard question.
A million years is enough to spread across the whole galaxy.
So where is everyone?
Nobody seems to have done it.
Something stops civilizations before they get out there. That's the great filter.
And it's why he thinks about Mars with one specific test.
Elon: "Do we have enough resources on Mars such that if the spaceships from Earth stopped coming, you can survive?"
Joe Rogan compared it to a long sea voyage where the only thing you're missing is vitamin C.
And the ships could stop for reasons that aren't dramatic at all.
Civilization on Earth could end with a bang or a whimper.
A Mars that can survive on its own is how he thinks we get past the filter.
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Crypto exchanges bankrupt
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Set sail across the South China Sea, where ancient routes meet new opportunities and waves of change carry the region toward a shared future.
Watch the trailer for the four-episode micro-documentary: "Surging Tides over the South China Sea: A Voyage to the Future" and stay tuned!
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