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Huge AI announcements from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Google in the past 48 hours. Here's everything going on in AI right now: 1. The authors of AI 2027 just moved their timelines up. They now expect AI on par with the best human AI researchers to arrive in 2027, after METR estimated Anthropic is improving about 2x as fast thanks to AI. Daniel Kokotajlo gives it a 50-50 chance by May 2027 and says he's "scared, sad, and angry." 2. Anthropic opened the investor pitch for its IPO, with shares likely trading as soon as Thursday next week. An updated filing also says it has now crossed its own safety line for AI-driven progress. 3. OpenAI launched Businesses in ChatGPT, a beta hub where brands can set up AI agents for shoppers, claim a verified profile, and track how often ChatGPT mentions them. Paid ads can point users to those agents too. This is like the start of SEO for chatbots. 4. Anthropic rolled out Claude Sheets and Whiteboards in beta, made Claude Data generally available, and announced Claude Meetings, an assistant that sits in on your video calls. Add those to Slides, Design, and Docs. Seems like Claude is slowly rebuilding the entire office suite. 5. Anthropic also released Claude Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.2 yesterday, with Fable debuting at #1# on Artificial Analysis' Intelligence Index, 5 points ahead of Google's Gemini 4 Carbon. It's also 20% cheaper and up to 30% faster than 5.1. Google lost the top spot before Carbon even shipped (!) 6. Meta released Muse Ember, its smallest model, built for high-volume agent work. It ties Claude Haiku 5.5 on the Intelligence Index at roughly one-third of the cost per task ($0.14 vs. $0.41 on an average test). Meta shipped its first Muse model in April and now has an answer for every tier OpenAI and Anthropic sell. 7. Google announced 2 new AI chips coming next year: the TPU 8tx, which keeps data encrypted even while a model is working on it, and the 8i Max, which joins 2 chips into one for agents that need to hold an entire codebase in view. Google already has nearly 100 TPU customers (including Anthropic and Apple) and every available chip is spoken for. 8. Nvidia's top lawyer reportedly emailed agents in August 2025 while they were investigating whether Singapore's Megaspeed smuggled its chips to China. The Commerce Department then halted the case and handed it to the Justice Department. Not a great week for Nvidia. 9. Adobe signed a multi-year deal with Disney to build custom AI models trained on Disney's characters and visual styles, with work already underway for theme parks, film, and ESPN. Pretty interesting to see one of the most protective IP owners in entertainment is now training its own AI models. 10. OpenAI acquired Odessia, a months-old AI trip-planning startup from Sonder founder Francis Davidson, who is joining OpenAI to work on travel. Between this and #3#, ChatGPT is coming for shopping and travel. 11. France unveiled the Paris Call for AI Safety and Security, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Mistral committing to build emergency off switches into their most advanced models. Interesting timing given #1# on this list. Daily reminder that this is the worst AI will ever be.

Phone drawer feels like a fix. Frequent users report more phone trouble. I've started leaving my phone in the kitchen drawer while I work, in with the dead batteries and takeout menus. The first hour always feels quieter. I had assumed that made me one of the healthy ones. Turns out I may have been reading my own drawer backwards. The paper is from Mariek Vanden Abeele's team at Ghent and Masaryk universities, out this summer in the Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication. Their first study pinged over a thousand adults six times a day for two weeks and asked whether they'd deliberately cut back. Track any one person, and the moments they put the phone away come with slightly less guilt and less pull. Line people up against each other, and it runs the other way, the same flip minutephysics walks through at 0:56. The heavier drawer users tend to be the ones the phone grips harder, and the authors suspect lower self-control under both. A cast on someone's arm doesn't mean casts break bones. I keep tripping on that. My drawer habit might be less a sign I'm good at this and more a sign of how hard it is for me. The authors put it as disconnection taking more effort for some people than others: same grocery bag, one person climbing a single flight, another climbing three. Every app and gadget sold as a phone lockbox has the same awkward math. Its most loyal buyers may be the people it helps least. The effects are small, they say so themselves, and none of it shows cause. I can't settle one thing: whether the drawer is fixing me or just measuring me.

🦔Someone is buying Japanese used books by the ton. Not novels or comics. Philosophy, history, medical law, Edo-period cultural texts. Multiple buyer accounts all ship to one logistics center in Okayama Prefecture that won't answer questions. Export records show over 50 tons, roughly 100,000 volumes, shipped to the US since last year. No buyer has been identified. Separately, court documents confirmed Anthropic's "Project Panama" bought millions of books in the US, cut the spines off, scanned them, and shredded the originals. An internal memo said the goal was to "destructively scan all the books in the world." Similar operations have been reported across Europe. My Take Anthropic's US book operation came out in court filings earlier this year. Project Panama. Millions of books, cut the spines off, scanned, shredded. Their VP chose the codename so nobody outside the company would find out. That story broke and apparently the same operation just moved to Japan. Anonymous buyer accounts, a warehouse in Okayama that won't take questions, and 100,000 volumes of specialized academic texts that nobody buys to resell. I don't know how you build a trillion-dollar industry on material you had to acquire in secret through middlemen because you knew the public would object. Authors spent years on those books and now they're fed through a scanner and thrown away so a chatbot can sound smarter. If the data was free to use, they wouldn't need codenames and anonymous warehouses. The lawsuits over who owns this material have barely begun and I think the copyright exposure across the whole AI industry is enormous. Anthropic's internal memo said the goal was every book in the world, which describes the foundation of the product. Hedgie🤗

My dear friends, I am happy to report the publication of the most important paper in my life to date (we have several great papers coming out but this is very special). Tomorrow, I will present this paper for the first time at the Nature AI Healthcare in Paris and will post a longer post on this story and its broader implications for how to conduct clinical trials. Please read it and comment on it. Many thanks to the great co-authors of the study and everyone who contributed. Many thanks to the many reviewers (friendly and unfriendly) for spending so much time and helping make it better. Link in the comments.

Introducing Expert Intelligence ✨ A cross-@Google initiative that helps you engage with your trusted sources, starting with eligible @GooglePlay ebooks in Gemini Notebook. You can now combine expertise from your favorite authors with other sources and engage with your books in brand new ways! Try it out here:

This Melbourne bookstore “Amplify” only stocks non-white authors. So I went there to ask if I could get a book in their store as somebody of Greek Cypriot ancestry. Unfortunately she told me that they could not sell my book as I was too white for the store. Shocking new developments in race science

The word "steampunk" was coined in April 1987 by American science fiction writer K. W. Jeter. He proposed it jokingly in a letter to *Locus* magazine to describe the alternate-history novels set in the 19th century that he was writing alongside his fellow authors Tim Powers and James Blaylock.

Claude's watermark probably doesn't work how you think. As the CTO of GPTZero, I'll explain how Anthropic, Google and OpenAI are building text watermarking in this brief explainer and whether it can be defeated. Almost all forms of watermarking that are fast and cheap enough for a frontier lab have the same formula, following the KGW method: In generation: 1. Let's say you've generated n tokens so far. Take those n tokens + a secret key to generate a random hash 2. Use that hash to randomly reweight the probabilities for the n+1 token, and then sample from that new distribution. In the simple case, you could split 50% of all English words into a green or red set based on your hash, and boost the probability of words in the green set. For watermark detection: 1. For each token, see if it was in the green or red set. 2. To do this, recreate the hash based on the secret key and the text preceding the current token. Then, recreate the green and red set of words. 3. Once you've checked all the words in the text, if the next token is selected disproportionally from the green set more than 50% of the time, you claim the text has the watermark. I can tell you want to ask the following: 1) Isn't it easy to mess up the hash if you paraphrase the text? The answer is mostly yes, however, you can use a statistical model to get your hash instead of a deterministic function (SIR, Adaptive Watermark). Since the entire watermark is probabilistic, this is fine. 2) Doesn't this make the text much worse? The answer is yes, it does - Yes, it does – but for most people, it's imperceptible (Google claims in human feedback study with 20,000 texts), since there are exponentially many ways to write the same paragraph. DiPmark does something more sophisticated to avoid shifting the text distribution on average. Of course, watermarks fail on short text or highly predictable texts like "2+2=4". 3) Shouldn't it be easy to figure out the green and red sets? The answer is no. You would need an exponentially large number of samples from the watermarker to reconstruct those sets exactly, but it's a risk if the detector is open to the wild (Watermark Stealing) Still, there are couple challenges that a frontier lab needs to overcome: 1. Their watermark needs to work token-by-token because they are streaming their text to users. Many watermark methods plan sentences or paragraphs at a time, or change the text after its entirely written, in order to make their watermark robust to paraphrasers, and a frontier lab cannot afford to do this yet (SemStamp, PostMark) 2. If the secret key leaks, the watermark is busted. To avoid a large blast damage from this, you need to have a couple secret keys in rotation. 3. There are some texts, like code, that cannot be arbitrarily changed, otherwise the code will break. In those cases, the watermark needs to selectively change words in parts of the text that can tolerate synonyms (i.e. like variable naming) - see SWEET, EWD, Invisible Entropy. 4. They will need to educate their users on how to deal with false positives and false negatives of a detector, which is a big challenge (one we put a lot of effort into) So, how do I see this playing out in the next 6 months? 1. If Anthropic releases the watermark detector publically, I think they defeat their own watermark. People find reliable watermark removal strategies by testing against Anthropic (AI detectors like GPTZero have an advantage here because they can train against these adversaries once they become popular). 2. If they keep the detector private to the government, like Google has done, it's "safer". However, there are some papers showing trained approaches that work robustly to zero-shot break watermarks without any data, simply because they try to write the text just like a human (Zhang et al. 2024, Watermarks in the Sand). Also, making your detector makes it battle-tested and stronger long-term (my experience). 3. In my testing, the watermarks don't survive intense paraphrasing (especially if you combine word choice and syntax attacks), or human text substitution (rewrite your AI text by plagiarizing human authors). The free paraphrasers I've tried have quickly bypassed Google Deepmind's SynthId for what it's worth. 4. All-in-all, frontier labs are likely okay with this because they expect most users to not attack the watermark, and also because they + European regulators likely don't care past a certain point - its good enough. 5. Overall, I think users of frontier LLMs will not really care about this, because 1) they don't realize watermarks are there, 2) EU will force everyone to conform, 3) this seems more like regulatory hoop-jumping than an earnest effort from frontier labs to expose LLM use Lastly, people's first concern shouldn't be watermarking, it should be AI detectors! If you're posting, "its not X, its Y!!", I don't think the watermark is going to make a difference :)

RAG system that skips HTML parsing entirely! PixelRAG is an open-source visual RAG framework that renders documents as screenshots instead of parsing them into text. Most RAG pipelines start by converting HTML to text. Tables flatten into unstructured rows. Charts disappear. Layout context is gone before the LLM ever sees it. The paper measured this directly: HTML-to-text conversion accounts for 36.6% of retrieval failures on SimpleQA. PixelRAG skips that step entirely. It renders pages as screenshot tiles using Playwright, embeds those tiles with a fine-tuned Qwen3-VL-Embedding model, builds a FAISS index, and passes retrieved images directly to a VLM reader. No text abstraction in between. Benchmarked across six datasets against the strongest text-based baselines: - SimpleQA: 78.8% vs 71.6% (+7.1 points) - NQ-Tables: 48.8% vs 42.5% (+6.3 points) - EVQA: +15.5 points - LiveVQA: +11.3 points One honest caveat from the authors: this requires Qwen3-VL-4B class models or larger to see the benefit. Smaller models trail text retrieval. The authors also recommend using PixelRAG as an enhancement layer alongside existing text systems rather than a full replacement. Ships with a pre-built Wikipedia index covering 8.28M articles across 28.1M screenshot tiles. A Claude Code plugin lets Claude take screenshots of any URL and reason over the visual content directly. Key capabilities: • Renders web pages, PDFs, and images as screenshot tiles via Playwright • Fine-tuned Qwen3-VL-Embedding model for visual retrieval • FAISS index for fast vector search • Pre-built Wikipedia index: 8.28M articles, 28.1M tiles • 3x token cost reduction via image compression • Claude Code plugin for direct URL screenshot and visual reasoning • LoRA fine-tuning support via pixelrag-train 100% open source. I've shared the link in the replies!