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“Jensen has been incredibly good at retaining talent. There are very few high-profile departures from the NVIDIA executive team.” “This is probably when the sharks are in the water. The VCs are going to come in and offer people billions of dollars to start their own chip companies, their own neolabs.” “If a year from now we’ve seen a bunch of departures from NVIDIA, I’m going to be really concerned about their future.” “Steve Jobs is a pure visionary, and Jensen is negotiating every supply chain contract.” “If there’s any manufacturing issues with Rubin, people are distracted and Jensen’s not there. Things get solved slower, things get solved by committees.”

$20B industry is dead and nobody noticed. The most outdated and old fashioned business in america has no disruption, no TechCrunch coverage and 3 million customers a year. Every single one of us is a future customer. And the majority of VCs just don’t get it yet. Guess the industry in the replies 👇🏻 Hint: everyone’s dying to get in.

What Menlo has done over the last 24 months is exceptional. Yes, they did Anthropic’s round at $4BN that will make them $50BN+ as a firm. NICE! But they then took that and went f****** hard. They do Lovable, Higgsfield, Legora. They compounded the brand win of Anthropic to cement their position from respectfully a slightly ageing firm to being a dominant venture leader at the forefront with Thrive, a16z, Benchmark etc. It is incredible to see and I sat down with @venkyganesan to shoot the s*** on this. 1. Every Seed Investment Is an Option Bet Seed-stage deals function as financial options to discover true outlier potential before committing major capital. VCs must construct a broad enough portfolio to secure sufficient at-bats, only sizing up their position when quantifiable, revenue-based metrics prove an outlier has emerged. 2. What Is the First Sign of the AI Wave Cracking? Market cycles rarely collapse due to equity write-downs. They fracture when levered debt defaults occur. When market participants take on heavy leverage during an AI boom, precise timing becomes as critical as being directionally correct, making debt obligations the primary failure vector when cycles turn. 3. Why Every VC Must Now Prioritize IRR Every startup in the current landscape writes a structural tax to the Mag 7 and hyperscalers for compute and foundation models. Because LPs can buy index exposure to those same public tech giants without fees or carry, private VCs must generate outsized IRR performance, beating public markets by at least 1,000 basis points, to justify private capital allocation. 4. Why LPs Wanting Smaller Funds and Slower Deployment Is BS LPs cannot demand both smaller fund sizes and multi-year deployment paces in the middle of a generational platform shift. Because AI startups face immense capital requirements to scale compute, VC firms that refuse to deploy capital rapidly will watch competitors step in and capture the category winners. 5. The Theory of Reflexivity and How It's Causing Markups Reflexivity creates self-reinforcing loops where fast revenue growth triggers rapid valuation markups, attracting elite human and financial capital that further accelerates growth. However, when copycat investors chase markups for momentum rather than underlying fundamentals, reflexive valuation bubbles inflate until market realities force an inevitable correction. 6. Sometimes You Pay Up Because You Have Unique Insight Premium entry prices are not always the result of irrational bidding. They often stem from an investor's ability to recognize a fundamentally larger total addressable market than the consensus. When a VC possesses unique conviction around an expanding market opportunity, paying above current rates reflects calculated foresight rather than price-taking behavior. 7. There's No Limit to What a Person Can Do as Long as They Don't Care Who Gets the Credit Personal ego remains one of the most expensive liabilities in venture capital and company building. True long-term success requires setting aside individual notoriety, focusing ruthlessly on generating LP returns, and empowering teammates and founders without worrying about who receives the public credit. (links in comments)

pump/sol & pump/usd pairings, swapped some more solana into pump betting on weekly close > .0055 and .01+ shortly after already 5x off bottom from summer & leading altcoin thus far this cycle believe this breaking ATHs will raise ceilings for all new launches, still very underowned, yearlong accumulation & buybacks remain consistent with crosschain mobile app gaining traction ---- other general market thoughts zec 400 to 1600 in Q3, up from 40 in september of 2025, (500M -> 20B mcap) by far the top crypto performer of the past year, entering the double bubble turbulent area where price action becomes most volatile and blow off top ensues, i believe btc 2017 is best comp, aggressive uptrend+selloffs all year btc eth & sol holding above range highs after good move off the lows from the summer, pa has been clean, no large liq runs yet but believe most are still offsides, think higher before pullbacks hype & lit have been strong but recently sold off p aggro on robinhood perps integration news, believe this is the time period where it will make the most sense for hyperliquid & lighter to be aggressive with marketing, especially hyperliquid as i feel they have dominated but mostly exhuasted all of the liquidity of the crypto native cohort, hyperliquid has ~100k active traders? RH has 25M DAUs, want to see hyperliquid move aggressively into marketing towards more retail but also tradfi HNWI clients, am sure they are already thinking of ways to do this but is necessary step for them becoming 1T+ behemoth as Jeff envisions, partnership with Kraken on US integration is a big step this is also the area where i expect a lot of builders to capitalize, HL builder codes are designed in such a way that retail frontends can build easily on top, believe gamified hyperliquid mobile apps will be some of the most successful crypto apps this cycle, similar to trading terminals success last cycle with onchain coins, social trading has been huge sofar with onchain coins, but PNLs on perps are much larger & whoever figures out how to tap that liquidity wins huge ---- timing altcoins zec uptrend started sept 2025 hype uptrend started jan 2026 pump uptrend started july 2026 ZEHYPERPUMP still strongest 3 imo stating because i believe it will be important to be able to determine where different altcoins are in their market cycles, crypto does not trade one to one anymore, btc eth sol were all in downtrend for most of the year while hype outperformed aggressively, pump was in downtrend for a year straight while zcash pumped 20x, alt szns are an ever-rotating game, not something that happens all at the same time, being able to recognize when certain trends are beginning and others are ending is a necessary skill for compounding wins together if i had to guess in terms of timing macro trends in three parts, id say zec is in its last third, hype is in its middle third, & pump is in its first third it takes time for a base to build on assets before demand outweighs supply and uptrend begins & the opposite happens at tops when supply eventually outweighs demand go look at old coinbase & robinhood charts, same trend diff timeframe ----- anyway my point being i believe we are entering a new phase for alts doing well, onchain & cex alts, cex alts currently have extreme discounts because of how poorly they did last cycle, imo this is your opportunity for identifying gems in the piles of trash, because there are some out there and most still believe crypto is a scam there is a lot of sidelined capital looking for things to bid, VCs & smart retail alike the time to make your list of which coins to start buying is now, everything is floored ------ TLDR: Q4 bias: bullish, pullback + OI wipe in October, early bull market but late lev entries dangerous, high conviction spot positions safe highest conviction: PUMP invalidation levels: 74k, 73, .0034, 750, 95 concerns: rates/war/dxy strength

Nvidia acquires Hugging Face for ~$12.9bn. But who gets the 💰? My usual breakdown below 👇 *Investors are sharing ~$7.3bn of profits on <$400m invested. A cool ~20x blended.* *1) The single biggest winner here? Lux Capital.* 👑 Lux is taking the crown for the most $ returned in this transaction. The two rounds they led (Series A & Series C) generated ~$2.6bn combined. They also participated in the Series B. Congrats to @wolfejosh and team. The $15.0m Series A alone will return ~132.5x the capital invested, or ~$2.0bn. The most lucrative round in absolute $ returned. *2) Backing an exceptional team paid off with a >1,000x return for Betaworks and the angels* 📈 The story few people know: Hugging Face started life as a chatbot for lonely teenagers... You sent it a selfie and a sad emoji, it told you it understood. Quite far from where it landed! That is why backing an exceptional team in @ClementDelangue, @Thom_Wolf and @julien_c is always the right thing to do. It paid over 1,000x for Betaworks, Kevin Durant and Thibaud Elziere. *3) Founders and team are crushing it: not taking too much dilution along the way paid off* 👏 I estimate they will share ~$5bn in proceeds, assuming no secondary was taken along the way. A life changing outcome for them and many employees. Taking a 15% attributed option pool at exit, this would mean ~$2bn for the team and >$3bn to share for the three co-founders. Legendary! *4) Salesforce Ventures is cementing its reputation as one of the very best corporate VCs.* 🥇 Salesforce is adding Hugging Face to its long list of successful exits: Snowflake, Zoom, DocuSign, nCino, Auth0... Very few investors can claim as many successes, let alone corporates. The $235m round they led returned $675m in just three short years. Meanwhile, Salesforce's own stock has been flat for the period. Capital well invested! *5) This is a little bit of a heartbreak: but I wanted to congratulate @joinstationf here:* Hugging Face walked into StationF as a 4-person team on day one, June 2017. Back when it was a chatbot for teenagers. They went through multiple corporate programs (Microsoft, Ubisoft, then Naver). Unfortunately they were not investing or taking equity at the time - but they contributed to making it possible. And so for that: hats off. And of course, congratulations to all others involved: Addition, Sequoia, Coatue and many others. No one will be left out!

Many of the great VC firms and solo GPs started out with funds of $10M or less. These micro VC firms have a risk appetite which is crucial to the industry, and play an important role in seeding risk capital where larger firms cannot. "Micro VCs play a pivotal role in democratizing access to entrepreneurial finance by allowing ventures to get funding from a new type of investors. Moreover, micro VCs encourage more kinds of limited partners to access the VC industry." - Micro VC (2022) Unfortunately, the associated regulatory costs make operating at this scale incredibly difficult in the UK. Admin and compliance often consumes about $1.4M of a $10M UK fund, versus just $450k in the US. As a result of this high cost, the median fund size in the US was $20M in 2024, in the UK (with just 3% of the volume) it was $88M. So, the UK not only has lower total venture capital volume, it also has fewer small funds — the worst of both worlds. This is a major bottleneck, but there is a fix. If you're interested in hearing more, drop me a DM. (Credit to @cupazhou and @samhuleatt for the graphic below, from The Side Letter.) Micro VC paper: