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Tom Lee 家的 BitMine 真是一周都不带歇的。 上周又买了 17,362 枚 $ETH ，目前总持仓正式破 600 万。 按 1.221 亿枚总量算，已经拿下全网 4.9% 的 ETH，离他们定的 5% 目标只差约 10 万枚。 真·E 卫兵的定海神针， 只可惜现在还亏$36.7亿。 🥲

.@saylor 在 @binance 的最新访谈中，给出了他对比特币定价逻辑和时间边界的完整推演，他认为比特币的投资机会窗已不足 10 年。 抛开他持仓 84 万枚 $BTC 的立场，视频中这 4 个基于数学和宏观环境的判断值得参考： 1. 明确的时间边界：从现在到 2035 年是最后的红利期。2035 年，99% 的比特币将被挖出。此后，BTC 的增长曲线将逐渐平缓，大约 20 年后，其年化收益将降至仅比标普 500 高 3-5 个点，超额收益期结束。 2. 下一个价格引擎：比特币货币化分为 ETF、财库储备、数字信贷和银行放贷四步。前三步已经发生，未来 36 个月的核心驱动力将是“银行放贷”——逻辑类似房地产，当银行开始接受 BTC 抵押放贷，资产价格才会被真正撬动。 3. 真实通胀的折算：普通人关注 3% 的 CPI（工业品通胀），而资金关注 15% 的“资本成本”通胀（稀缺资产的涨幅）。 AI 会让服务变便宜，但凭空变不出市中心的绝版地段和毕加索的真迹。在生产力越丰裕的时代，绝对稀缺的资产越贵。 4. 黄金的数学劣势：黄金每年约有 2% 的新增供给，这意味着储存在黄金里的购买力每 36 年会被稀释一半，而比特币的通胀最终趋零。 看懂这套逻辑，就能理解他当前发股、发债买币的底层框架。具体论述见视频👇

胜率49%，一半都不到。 51天，18.2万美元。 他在Polymarket上跑一套会自己改门槛的量化模型，专做BTC Up/Down。 公开账本： 51天，已实现约+182,403美元，日均大约3,500。 36,473次预测，胜率约49%。 均笔不大，靠同一套设置，每小时重复约30次往外刮。 模型只干一件事： 噪声越大，信号必须越强，才允许下单。 阈值随波动走： H = k × σ σ，当前短期波动率。 k，敏感度参数。 H，进入所需的最小信号强度。 盘面安静，H下调，小信号也能过。 波动抬升，H上调，同样的方向直接丢掉。 举个例子： 信号1.8，阈值1.2，下单。 信号1.8，阈值2.3，不做。 同一段走势， 在一种环境里是订单， 在另一种环境里，当没看见。 他不追求神准。 49%的胜率够用—— 过滤掉的是噪声里的假突破， 留下来的才动手。 这个模型最反直觉的地方： 它不预测方向，它只改证据的门槛。 人亏钱，常常是在市场最吵的时候，用最松的标准冲进去。 他反着来： 市场越吵，动手前要的证据越硬。

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Why Tokenization Could Be the Most Important Economic Innovation of Our Lifetime | Bruce Fenton @BruceFenton is a longtime Bitcoin advocate since 2012, securities professional, and one of the early pioneers of tokenized securities. He is the founder and CEO of Chainstone Labs and founder of Atlantic Financial. Alongside Overstock founder @PatrickByrne, Bruce was involved in some of the earliest efforts to bring securities and financial-market infrastructure onto blockchain rails. In 2018, he tokenized equity in his own company, Chainstone Labs, on the Ravencoin blockchain—years before tokenization became one of Wall Street’s biggest narratives. In this episode, Bruce breaks down naked short selling, the plumbing behind traditional securities markets, and why he believes much of the problem is ultimately a ledger problem. We dive into questions such as: Who actually owns the stocks sitting in your brokerage account? How can shares be lent and rehypothecated? What role do brokers, clearing firms, DTCC, and Cede & Co. play in determining who owns what? And could blockchain replace an opaque system of claims and intermediaries with a transparent ledger showing exactly where an asset is and who owns it? We unpack what “tokenized stocks” actually means—and the important distinction between a token that simply gives you exposure to a stock’s price and a security issued natively onchain, where the token itself represents the actual share and the ownership rights that come with it. Bruce discusses how tokenization could allow smaller businesses to tokenize ownership and have their stock traded globally without needing to be listed on a traditional exchange like the NYSE, as well as what a future without KYC could look like. Finally, we get into Wall Street’s embrace of tokenization, the SEC’s evolving approach to tokenized securities, and one of the biggest questions surrounding the future of this technology: who ultimately controls these new financial rails? Remember to subscribe and hit the bell “🔔” icon to get notifications 0:00 Bruce Fenton & Patrick Byrne: Pioneers of Tokenized Securities 3:36 Naked Short Selling Explained 6:28 Who Actually Owns the Stocks in Your Brokerage Account? 12:00 Tokenization Solves Wall Street’s “Ledger Problem” 15:48 What Are You Actually Buying With Robinhood’s Tokenized Stocks? 16:48 Real Tokenized Stocks: When the Token IS the Share 21:46 Tokenization Could Open U.S. Markets to the Entire World 22:52 Why Companies May No Longer Need the NYSE 26:29 Could Tokenized Markets Exist Without KYC? 29:31 Bruce Tokenized Equity on Ravencoin in 2018 30:53 Will Blockchain Make Clearing Houses & DTCC Obsolete? 33:17 Could Tokenization Have Prevented the GameStop Crisis? 38:19 Wall Street Is Embracing Tokenization — Who Gets the Power? 40:20 The SEC’s New Tokenized Securities “Innovation Exemption” 42:57 Why Robinhood’s Tokenized Stocks Don’t Qualify 47:01 Could Everything Eventually Be Tokenized? 51:02 The Dystopian Side of Tokenization: Surveillance & Asset Seizure