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The holy grail of investing is knowing how to balance. When you can take equally good things where your expectation of return is equal, but because they are uncorrelated and move differently, they balance each other. That is how you can reduce your risk without reducing your returns. You have to understand that the market is a zero-sum game. The consensus is already reflected in the price, and trying to beat it is a difficult game. In fact, it is more difficult to compete and be successful in the markets than it is to compete in the Olympics. We must be humble about that. But achieving that balance so you can get a good return without losing a lot of money is everything. Most of my own money is invested in exactly that. #Investing# #AssetAllocation# #RiskManagement# #Principles#

I had a blast being out until 4am with my family and friends at UNVRS in Ibiza for my 77th birthday and thought I’d pass it along to turn you onto it, in case you’re in the neighborhood.

历史新高时，如果还没上车，我们该怎么办？ 自1950-01-03 以来，S&P 500 新高了1,533 次； 自1985-10-01 以来，Nasdaq-100新高了818 次； 平均下来，两个指数每年都会出现约20次历史新高。 🔸所以对于优质资产来说：新高并不是一个危险信号，而是市场常态。 ⏰如果在任何新高时买入： ▫️持有1年，平均收益9.8%～20.5%，74%+的时间在赚钱； ▫️持有3年，平均收益30.5%～59.2%，85%+的时间在赚钱； ▫️持有5年，平均收益56.8%～126.8%，80%+的时间在赚钱； ▫️持有10年，平均收益172.4%～249.9%，77%+的时间在赚钱； 历史上任何一次新高买入并持有20年，胜率都是100%，平均累计收益分别达到637%和626%。 所以遇到新高并不可怕，真正值得害怕的，可能从来不是买在新高，而是因为恐惧新高，长期没有上车。

How is AI actually used globally? We launched ATLAS—mapping 15 million de-identified Google AI interactions across more than 150 countries 📊 65% of jobs use AI, but for ~21% of tasks 💡 86%+ of use is outside work 🛠️ Mechanics & tech trades use it 2x more for live diagnostics

So much of our current political and economic climate can be explained by debt cycles— and how those cycles build on each other over time. If you’d like more context on how all of these pieces come together, I recommend you watch my 30-minute explainer “How the Economic Machine Works” on here:

In order to be successful, you have to do five things. There’s a sequence to it. 1. Have (audacious) goals. 2. Identify and don't tolerate problems. 3. Diagnose the problems to get at their root causes. 4. Design a path to fix those things. 5. Push through to results. This is what I call looping. Go for your goals, identify your problems, get to the root cause, design a path, and push through. Life is basically just doing that over and over again. If you do that, you'll make the advances. #Principles# #RayDalio# #PersonalGrowth#

I love everything about the 4th of July, and the 250th anniversary is especially great for me because I am joining with family and friends for a reading of the Declaration of Independence, a BBQ, and fireworks. As I reflect on what has happened over the 250 years that followed July 4th, 1776, it seems like an impossible dream come true. Think about it. Imagine that at the outset on July 4th, 1776, you were asked what odds for success a country would have if it would be mostly made up of poor immigrants coming from all different countries with very different cultures and religions and it would be governed by a political system in which the leaders reported to these people who themselves had to vote, compromise, and submit to life-changing decisions that many disagreed with. Would you bet that it would do exceptionally well and improve for 250 years? I would have thought that virtually impossible, yet America has been exceptional for 250 years. I also see that it was shockingly terrific and lucky for me to have lived through the best part of those 250 years because I was born four years after the 1945 post-World War II beginning of the new American world order, which gave me the best time in history in the best place in the world. These reflections give me a deep appreciation for the principles and practices—the secret sauce—that created and sustained this remarkable American story, a fear that we are losing sight of them, and a sense of responsibility to contribute to sustaining them.