聪明的朋友可能发现了,虽然BTC最低触及了66+, 但很多山寨币并没有下跌太多,比如 $Pump一夜价格没有任何波动。
这就是我经常说的理论,山寨没有那么多货可出了,也没有做市价值。
目前山寨币指数在54,以往的下跌末期都会降到30以下。
这不是偶然,是未来的趋势,BTC的波动会大于一些山寨币,反而更适合交易者操作,山寨的流动性逐渐被吸干,一些龙头会有更好的上涨,大部分逐渐死亡,不归零但没人交易。
所以抄底时也许可以多考虑一些标的。
Sharp observers might have noticed that even though BTC dipped to the $66,000+ range, many altcoins didn’t fall all that much—for instance, the price of $PUMP remained completely flat overnight.
This aligns with a theory I often discuss: there simply isn’t much supply left to dump in the altcoin market, nor is there much value in market-making for these assets.
The current altcoin index sits at 54; historically, toward the end of a market decline, this figure typically drops below 30.
This is no coincidence—it’s a sign of a broader trend. BTC’s volatility is now exceeding that of many altcoins, making it a better vehicle for traders. Meanwhile, liquidity in the altcoin space is gradually drying up. While a few leading tokens may still see significant gains, the vast majority are effectively dying—not necessarily hitting zero, but simply becoming illiquid with no trading activity.
Therefore, when looking for "buy-the-dip" opportunities, you might want to be more selective about which assets you target.
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The Moral Collapse of the Chinese Crypto Community
To Elon Musk
2022–2023 marked the golden age of Chinese-language Twitter. Back then, there was no creator revenue you offered purely based on traffic. Two main groups of creators came here to share insights:
Influencers who migrated over with their followers after their Weibo accounts were banned.
Content creators who were already living overseas.
These people came with genuine intent to share, and they often uncovered valuable market alpha. Whether it was Bay Area Spaces, inscription research bloggers, or spot and secondary market analysts. Back then, everyone believed the next bull run would be bright. People expected their altcoin spot holdings would deliver at least 5–10x returns. After all, A16Z poured capital into projects left and right, and every so often, stories popped up of Gen Z traders hitting A8 and retiring financially free.
Then the tide turned. High-cap tokens pumped immediately upon launch. Instead of bringing fresh liquidity into the market, the ETF event drained what little liquidity remained, driven largely by Trump-related narratives.
The crash on October 11 was almost inevitable. Long before that, many had already lost everything on altcoins. That black-swan event merely liquidated whatever leveraged contract positions were left.
Starting around 2024–2025, after X rolled out creator ad revenue, a flood of traffic chasers emerged, catering to lowbrow audiences. These people do not trade crypto, nor do they care about any market narratives. They crossed over to this platform just to scrape together that tiny creator payout, as they have little footing in real life.
Consequently, we saw the worst tropes from mainland domestic social media spill over: gender polarization, disinformation, and bootlicking culture. While you tweaked the algorithm to curb plagiarism, the platform still fails to incentivize high-quality content. Plenty of boundaryless content farms still rack up views, and accounts that harass others relentlessly often evade effective reporting penalties. Meanwhile, posts from creators I used to follow have vanished from my timeline.
I kindly request that you strictly investigate accounts that distribute other users’ private information without consent.
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The Moral Collapse of the Chinese Crypto Community
To Elon Musk
@elonmusk
2022–2023 marked the golden age of Chinese-language Twitter. Back then, there was no creator revenue you offered purely based on traffic. Two main groups of creators came here to share insights:
Influencers who migrated over with their followers after their Weibo accounts were banned.
Content creators who were already living overseas.
These people came with genuine intent to share, and they often uncovered valuable market alpha. Whether it was Bay Area Spaces, inscription research bloggers, or spot and secondary market analysts. Back then, everyone believed the next bull run would be bright. People expected their altcoin spot holdings would deliver at least 5–10x returns. After all, A16Z poured capital into projects left and right, and every so often, stories popped up of Gen Z traders hitting A8 and retiring financially free.
Then the tide turned. High-cap tokens pumped immediately upon launch. Instead of bringing fresh liquidity into the market, the ETF event drained what little liquidity remained, driven largely by Trump-related narratives.
The crash on October 11 was almost inevitable. Long before that, many had already lost everything on altcoins. That black-swan event merely liquidated whatever leveraged contract positions were left.
Starting around 2024–2025, after X rolled out creator ad revenue, a flood of traffic chasers emerged, catering to lowbrow audiences. These people do not trade crypto, nor do they care about any market narratives. They crossed over to this platform just to scrape together that tiny creator payout, as they have little footing in real life.
Consequently, we saw the worst tropes from mainland domestic social media spill over: gender polarization, disinformation, and bootlicking culture. While you tweaked the algorithm to curb plagiarism, the platform still fails to incentivize high-quality content. Plenty of boundaryless content farms still rack up views, and accounts that harass others relentlessly often evade effective reporting penalties. Meanwhile, posts from creators I used to follow have vanished from my timeline.
I kindly request that you strictly investigate accounts that distribute other users’ private information without consent.
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pump/sol & pump/usd pairings, swapped some more solana into pump betting on weekly close > .0055 and .01+ shortly after
already 5x off bottom from summer & leading altcoin thus far this cycle
believe this breaking ATHs will raise ceilings for all new launches, still very underowned, yearlong accumulation & buybacks remain consistent with crosschain mobile app gaining traction
----
other general market thoughts
zec 400 to 1600 in Q3, up from 40 in september of 2025, (500M -> 20B mcap) by far the top crypto performer of the past year, entering the double bubble turbulent area where price action becomes most volatile and blow off top ensues, i believe btc 2017 is best comp, aggressive uptrend+selloffs all year
btc eth & sol holding above range highs after good move off the lows from the summer, pa has been clean, no large liq runs yet but believe most are still offsides, think higher before pullbacks
hype & lit have been strong but recently sold off p aggro on robinhood perps integration news, believe this is the time period where it will make the most sense for hyperliquid & lighter to be aggressive with marketing, especially hyperliquid as i feel they have dominated but mostly exhuasted all of the liquidity of the crypto native cohort, hyperliquid has ~100k active traders? RH has 25M DAUs, want to see hyperliquid move aggressively into marketing towards more retail but also tradfi HNWI clients, am sure they are already thinking of ways to do this but is necessary step for them becoming 1T+ behemoth as Jeff envisions, partnership with Kraken on US integration is a big step
this is also the area where i expect a lot of builders to capitalize, HL builder codes are designed in such a way that retail frontends can build easily on top, believe gamified hyperliquid mobile apps will be some of the most successful crypto apps this cycle, similar to trading terminals success last cycle with onchain coins, social trading has been huge sofar with onchain coins, but PNLs on perps are much larger & whoever figures out how to tap that liquidity wins huge
----
timing altcoins
zec uptrend started sept 2025
hype uptrend started jan 2026
pump uptrend started july 2026
ZEHYPERPUMP still strongest 3 imo
stating because i believe it will be important to be able to determine where different altcoins are in their market cycles, crypto does not trade one to one anymore, btc eth sol were all in downtrend for most of the year while hype outperformed aggressively, pump was in downtrend for a year straight while zcash pumped 20x, alt szns are an ever-rotating game, not something that happens all at the same time, being able to recognize when certain trends are beginning and others are ending is a necessary skill for compounding wins together
if i had to guess in terms of timing macro trends in three parts, id say zec is in its last third, hype is in its middle third, & pump is in its first third
it takes time for a base to build on assets before demand outweighs supply and uptrend begins & the opposite happens at tops when supply eventually outweighs demand
go look at old coinbase & robinhood charts, same trend diff timeframe
-----
anyway my point being i believe we are entering a new phase for alts doing well, onchain & cex alts, cex alts currently have extreme discounts because of how poorly they did last cycle, imo this is your opportunity for identifying gems in the piles of trash, because there are some out there and most still believe crypto is a scam
there is a lot of sidelined capital looking for things to bid, VCs & smart retail alike
the time to make your list of which coins to start buying is now, everything is floored
------
TLDR:
Q4 bias: bullish, pullback + OI wipe in October, early bull market but late lev entries dangerous, high conviction spot positions safe
highest conviction: PUMP
invalidation levels: 74k, 73, .0034, 750, 95
concerns: rates/war/dxy strength
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Altcoins soaring. Gold glowing. 👀
Why pay interest when you can borrow at 0%?
HTX Margin 13th Anniversary is LIVE:
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Bitcoin is ripping... but the real bottom may still be ahead.
@NewsAsset says the 4-year cycle still points to October, and even $45K BTC isn't off the table.
His strategy if it crashes again? Buy MORE. The lower it goes, the more aggressive his DCA gets.
FT
@BitcoinJesusETH
Subscribe so you don't miss the next one 👇
⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱
00:00 – Intro
01:14 – Has Bitcoin Bottomed?
04:00 – Milk Road PRO
05:07 – DCA in a Bear Market
09:56 – What Could Move Bitcoin?
12:32 – What’s Next for the Clarity Act?
14:40 – SEC’s New Crypto Regulations
17:01 – Sponsor: Saber Money
17:41 – Are ICOs Coming Back?
19:25 – Is Self-Custody Too Risky?
26:50 – Which Altcoins Is Rob Buying?
30:43 – Next Bull Run Narratives
34:08 – When Will the Bear Market End?
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Crypto Advice That Actually Matters
Stop chasing green candles.
Every cycle, the same story plays out. Retail buys the top because "this time is different." It's never different. The people making real money aren't the ones apeing into shitcoins at ATH. They're the ones accumulating when everyone on Twitter is tweeting "crypto is dead."
Here's what nobody tells you:
1. Survive first. Get rich second.
Most people lose money not because they picked wrong, but because they sized wrong. One bad trade shouldn't wipe you out. If you're risking more than 2% per position, you're not investing. You're gambling with extra steps.
2. The real alpha isn't a token ticker.
It's understanding when the Fed pivots. When stablecoin supply expands. When ETF flows flip positive. Macro moves markets — memecoins are just the confetti on top.
3. Your biggest enemy is your own brain.
FOMO. Revenge trading. Convincing yourself a -80% bag will "come back." The market doesn't care about your cost basis. Cut losers fast. Let winners run. Sounds simple — almost nobody does it.
4. Most altcoins go to zero.
Look at the top 100 from 2017. Most don't exist anymore. Not "went down." Zero. Gone. The few that survive? BTC and ETH. Build your foundation there. Speculative bets come after.
5. Take profits. Actually take them.
Unrealized gains are not gains. They're a number on a screen that can disappear in one candle. If you're up life-changing money, sell some. The market will always give you another entry — it won't always let you keep what you already have.
The secret no guru will tell you: patience and position sizing beat "alpha" every time. The guy who bought BTC once a week for four years and did nothing else is outperforming 95% of traders. He's also sleeping better.
Don't try to be the smartest person in the room. Try to be the last one standing.
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🚨 THIS CHART COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.
ETH/BTC is testing a resistance level that has capped momentum for months.
If it breaks above and holds, I believe altcoins could outperform for the next 12–24 months.
My targets for this cycle:
🟣 $ETH: $8,000–10,000
🟢 $SOL: $450–700
🔵 $ADA: $2.5–4
⚪ $LINK: $80–120
⚫ $XRP: $5–8
🔺 $AVAX: $120–180
🔷 $TON: $18–30
Bookmark this post.
The next Altseason may be closer than most people expect. 🚀
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币安合约交易者联盟第2轮火热开跑🏃
别错过最后一轮 TradFi 冲刺赛、UM 冲刺赛和 Altcoins 冲刺赛
🚀交易越多,奖励越丰厚!
立即参与👉
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