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LATEST: 📊 Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl says Bitcoin's correlation with gold has surged to above 50% as its Nasdaq correlation falls to ~33%, signaling a regime shift toward the debasement trade.

如何用好手里正的资产，来做好后面的买入抄底？ 正好是我最近在思考的议题， 那就一起来参加下 #OKX百万规划师# ：如果我有100万现在如何分配？ 先说下我所说的逻辑，大家不要照搬，照搬会出问题的， 每个人条件不同、对市场认知不同、能接受的回撤不同、对资产的理解不同，所以投资框架的搭建，需要靠自己，我只是给大家一个参考： 首先目前背景是： bitcoin:native 近期狂拉30%，美国财政部扩大长债回购、长期利率受压、美元走弱，“美元贬值 / debasement trade”正在成为新的宏观交易逻辑。 与此同时，8 月 17 日—24 日，美国现货 BTC ETF 六个交易日累计净流入大约 22.55 亿美元，说明这轮行情里已经出现了比较明显的现货资金承接。 但问题也很明显：BTC 已经在很短时间里快速上涨，80,000—83,000 美元正在成为新的分水岭。市场目前普遍关注 75,000—76,000 一线的第一次回踩，以及 83,000 美元真正突破后的加速可能； 而且未来 30 天正好横跨 9 月 10 日 PPI、9 月 11 日 CPI、9 月 15—16 日 FOMC，所以这一个月很可能不会安安静静地走单边，估计是上蹿下跳的猴儿市！ 下面是我的应对策略： 1️⃣30% 现货基础仓：先让自己在场· 30 万 U 不一次打满。 第一笔：15 万 U BTC 在 78K—80K 一带，我会先建立 15% 基础仓。 原因很简单： 我们永远要承认一种可能：这次真的不回头了，那么你是否在场？踏空就是一整个牛市的机会。 所以这一笔不是因为我认为 79K 很便宜，而是我愿意为“不踏空”付一点保险费。 2️⃣第二笔：15 万 U 我不会立刻买，优先等待 76K—78K 的正常回踩。 如果不给机会，也没关系，先挂一个这个区间的双币理财美美的吃利息。 因为后面还有右侧策略。 3️⃣10% 定投仓：专门对付“我不知道” 10 万 U 分成四份。 每周固定买入 25,000 U BTC。 不管当时价格 76K、80K 还是 85K。 为什么？ 因为投资里面始终有一部分东西，是我们无法预测的。 既然无法预测，就不要假装自己可以预测。 定投仓的意义不是获得最低成本，而是降低判断错误的成本。 这 10% 相当于整个系统里的“反自负装置”。 4️⃣45% 机动资金：真正决定收益率的部分 45 万 U，我分成四颗子弹。 第一档：$75K—76K 投入 15 万 U。 这是我认为当前最值得等待的一次正常回踩。 如果 BTC 从 81K 回到这里，但 ETF、美元、长期利率和基本面没有明显恶化，我会认为：这是获利盘释放，不是趋势破坏。 这种跌，我愿意买。 第二档：$70K—72K 投入 10 万 U。 如果跌到这里，市场情绪一定已经明显变差。 但只要核心逻辑没有改变，我反而会更高兴。 因为我的原则一直都是： 价格下跌和逻辑恶化，是两件完全不同的事情。 价格跌了、逻辑没变： 叫机会。 价格没怎么跌、逻辑已经变了： 才叫风险。 第三档：$65K—67K 再投入 10 万 U。 如果未来 30 天真的重新来到这个区域，我不会因为市场恐慌而临时改变计划。 因为： 真正的左侧交易，不是跌的时候勇敢，而是在没跌之前，就已经决定跌了怎么办。 但这是最后一笔左侧资金。 我不会无限补仓。 第四档：突破 $83K 最后 10 万 U 专门留给右侧。 日线有效站上 $83K，并且随后回踩 $81.5K—83K 区域没有重新跌破，满足以后，我才买。 这 10 万 U 非常重要。 因为它解决的是另外一种错误：只允许自己越跌越买，却不允许市场证明自己已经错过了低点。 以前我的系统偏左侧，现在我愿意给右侧留 10% 的纠错权，但也仅仅是 10%，我不会因为 FOMO 把整个策略推翻。 5️⃣剩下 15%，我宁愿什么都不干 最后 15 万 U，我放 USDT 灵活赚币，随时可以调用。 很多人觉得资金必须全部工作才叫投资。 我越来越不这么看。 现金本身就是一个仓位。 它买的不是收益率。 它买的是： 选择权。 如果突然出现黑天鹅，我有钱。 如果 BTC 给一个离谱的价格，我有钱。 如果我的判断完全错误，我也还有重新思考的资格。 所以这 15%，原则上一个月都不需要动。 6️⃣什么时候止盈？ 对于我来说 BTC 是我要不断增加数量的长期资产，而不是一个 30 天以后必须清仓的交易品。 我的交易风格不是短线和震荡，所以一旦买入，可能就会等大行情，谈止盈是个伪命题。 只能说，可能至少要在翻倍后才会考虑这个话题。 7️⃣什么时候认错？ 这是整个计划里我认为最重要的一部分。 我永远不会因为价格跌了就认错。 但如果下面三个条件出现两个，我会暂停整个买入计划： ① BTC 连续两个日线收盘跌破 $63K； ② 美国 BTC ETF 五日累计净流出超过 10 亿美元； ③ CPI / FOMC 以后宏观逻辑明显反转，美元和长期美债收益率重新同步大幅走强。 三者满足两个： 我停止定投、取消未成交买单、不再继续补仓。 剩余资金全部回到 USDT。 因为这个时候发生的就不再只是价格下跌，而有可能是我最初赖以做多的条件发生了变化。 投资里面一定要学会区分：市场暂时不认可我和事实已经证明我错了。 前者可以等待。后者必须重新思考。 8️⃣这个计划最大的风险是什么？ 1）BTC 一口气冲到 100K。 那么我一定会踏空一部分。 接受。 少赚不是风险，大亏才是风险。 2）美国财政部和美元贬值交易的逻辑发生逆转，Fed 比市场预期更加鹰派，长端利率重新上升。 这会破坏目前非常重要的宏观逻辑。 3）ETF 资金重新从持续流入转为持续流出。 因为这一轮行情能否从“空头回补”变成真正的新趋势，最终还是需要真实的现货买盘来接力。 9️⃣最后总结： 我的逻辑很简单，在于不拿 100 万 U 去赌 BTC 涨跌，而是拿这 100 万 U，购买未来面对不同市场路径时的主动权。 涨到 10 万，我有 BTC。 跌到 7 万，我有 U。 跌到 6 万多，我还有勇气和计划。 如果事实证明我错了，我也没有杠杆逼着我死扛。 这可能不是未来一个月收益率最高的方案，但它是最适合我的风格的方案。 不求每一次都赢，只求任何时候，都给自己留有余地。

吴说获悉，彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) 与比特币 ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) 重新进入交易量最高的 ETF 前十名，取代部分此前由半导体 ETF 占据的位置。他认为，这反映出市场资金正在从 AI 热潮逐渐转向“货币贬值交易”（debasement trade），即配置黄金、比特币等价值储存类资产。半导体 ETF 仍保持较高交易活跃度，但相比夏季高峰已有下降。

Scott Gray leaves OpenAI. He joined the company in 2016 and helped build the GPU infrastructure behind its earliest breakthroughs, from sparse transformers and scaling laws to GPT‑3. His exit comes as at least 12 senior leaders have already left OpenAI in 2026. OpenAI’s 2026 departures so far: • Scott Gray - longtime GPU systems engineer • Denise Dresser - Chief Revenue Officer • Brad Lightcap - former COO • Fidji Simo - CEO of Applications • Kevin Weil - Head of OpenAI for Science • Bill Peebles - Head of Sora • Srinivas Narayanan - CTO of B2B Applications • Kate Rouch - Chief Marketing Officer • Barret Zoph - Enterprise Sales lead • Johannes Heidecke - Head of Safety Systems • Joshua Achiam - Chief Futurist • Chloé Bakalar - Head of Ethics • Caitlin Kalinowski - Head of Hardware and Robotics Something is happening at OpenAI.

Extracts from a further Spectator article (Aug 15) by Andrew Gilligan: An academic project hosted by Cambridge University platforms creationism, the belief that the world was created by God in seven days. It promotes an academic paper demanding that schoolchildren be taught to “actively resist” the science of evolution. At Charles Darwin’s old university, where a college is named after him, Darwin’s discovery is now described by one Cambridge researcher as an example of “potential challenges posed by Eurocentric monoculture.” It is the latest sign of fundamental problems at Cambridge’s education faculty, the same department which hired Jason Arday. The project which platforms the creationist claims, the Islamic Educator Learning Community (IELC), is led by Cambridge’s assistant research professor of education, Farah Ahmed, a former activist in the since banned terror group Hizb ut-Tahrir.. IELC is “hosted by” and “partners with” a university body called the Cambridge Teacher Research Exchange, Camtree. IELC publishes on its website, with a Camtree address, a paper on “Islamic scientific critical consciousness” . . . The paper says that “countering colonial hegemony in science education for Muslims” could include “identifying gaps in fossil records to make the case that the evidence of humans descending from apes is inconclusive.” On Tuesday, in the wake of the Jason Arday scandal, The Spectator revealed that Ahmed had been given the prestigious assistant professorship. We noted that in a 2002 pamphlet, republished in 2017, she attacked ‘western education’ as a ‘threat’ to Muslims, condemned democracy and integration, and criticised British schools for teaching that child marriage is wrong. Like the paper’s author, Mirza, Ahmed has also said that modern science is a problem, because in the “teaching of evolution, Muslim children will be exposed to ideas that contradict Islam.” After that story created a storm, the education faculty took decisive action. It removed the names of all its staff from its website, presumably to stop anyone who doesn’t know about web archive tools checking to see if they’ve hired any more wrong’uns (spoiler alert: they have Other action has been less forthcoming. The faculty clearly hopes to ride this one out, issuing a statement that it is “committed to academic freedom and freedom of speech within the law.” Well, we must reluctantly agree that Ahmed – benefiting from the democracy she condemns – should have the freedom to say that English is “one of the most damaging subjects” a school can teach, or (while teaching at Cambridge) write that Muslim students shouldn’t have to worry about “gaining literacy and numeracy and other disciplinary skills demonstrated through qualifications.” But that’s quite different from believing that Cambridge University should fund her to promote her ideas to the future leaders of the country. Still more indisputable is that a university subject, even one as debased as Education at Cambridge, should not promote baseless, anti-scientific twaddle in the name of academic research. But it does.

"Saqaliba", white European slaves were mostly of Slavic origin and considered luxury imports.... Slavery is a word well understood, but in the minds of most people, it is associated with the black slave trade from Africa to America across the Atlantic. Many people are not aware that a parallel form of slavery existed in the kidnapping of white men and women by North Africans and Arabs. The purpose of these captures was slavery. Another aspect of this slavery was white women (preferably virgins) to populate the harems of the Arab Sheikhs and Beys. The Arabs and the Moors were the foremost exponents of this trade as they had a penchant for fair and golden-haired white girls. This trade lasted much longer than the black slave trade and overshot it by hundreds of years. The black trade was stopped by an act of legislation. This did not happen in the case of the white slave trade which ended only after the Arabs and Moors were militarily crushed by the European powers. The onset of white slave trade began when the Muslim arms conquered almost the entire North Africa and Spain. It was at its zenith when the Mediterranean Sea almost became a Muslim controlled lake with the Ottoman Empire at its zenith. Even after the defeat of the Muslims, the slave trade was taken over by Muslim pirates called the Corsairs. The Corsairs were a daredevil lot and scoured the entire Mediterranean Sea. They also raided the coastal villages of Europe and kidnapped white girls. These girls have spirited away to the harems of the Arabs and sold at auctions where they earned a high price for the kidnapper. White men were also kidnapped for ransom and to work as slaves. There are reports that King Richard the lion heart was also kidnapped and released when a large ransom was paid for him. As far as the kidnapping of girls from the European coastal villages is concerned, the effect was one of fear and many villages shifted deeper away from the coast, to escape from the marauding Muslim pirates. Later the Muslim pirates started a preference for Slav girls who were fair and had golden hair. Raiding parties roamed the Baltic and the Aegean Sea for these girls. The magnitude of the slavery can only be estimated as no exact figures are available. Generally, it is estimated that the figure would be over a million. The Corsairs were the main exponents of this white slave trade and they also extracted a levy from the ships that sailed the Mediterranean Sea. In the period after 1609 in a span of a decade, almost 400 British ships were captured and the men made slaves and released only after a ransom was paid. Other who could not pay languished in Arab farms as workers and slaves till death. Later Britain paid a tribute and their ships were spared. But nations and settlements close to the sea in SE Europe and the Slav areas bore the brunt of this slavery. A fact that has now emerged is the massive kidnapping and abduction of white girls as slaves for the harems of the Arabs. This menace lasted for hundreds of years and it continued until the 19th century. In 1814 the European powers signed a convention to outlaw the attacks of the Berbers and the Ottoman Turks. The Christian nations now asserted and the rising White power inflicted heavy defeats on the Corsairs and the Turks. This rising European power led to the demise of the white slave trade. A point worth noting is that the slave trade in white women only stopped after the defeat of the Turks and Muslims and not by any act or edict. #archaeohistories#