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TOMORROW SPACEX GOES PUBLIC AT A $1.77T VALUATION. THE LAST TIME ELON MUSK TOOK A COMPANY PUBLIC, A REPORTER LISTED EVERY REASON THE DEAL WAS A "LEAP OF FAITH." The company was not making a profit. No mass production. No distribution. Just a prototype. Here was Musk's response, on Tesla IPO day, June 29, 2010: "The smartest money in the world is betting on Tesla. They must have a reason for doing so because obviously, to go public and increase the range and increase the price in this market is not easy, and these are very well-informed people." Then the reporter pressed him on the losses. Musk fired back: "If Tesla were just making the sports car and doing our powertrain supply business, we would be profitable as a company. We're expanding by 3,000% in the space of 2 to 3 years. It's just not possible for the company as a whole to be profitable with that rate of expansion. It's not some fundamental flaw in the Tesla business." Tesla $TSLA priced at $17, opened at $19, and closed at $23.89. Up 41% on day one. The deal raised $226M. At the time, Musk himself had just $650,000 in liquid assets per public filings and was taking loans from friends to cover personal expenses. Almost everything he had was tied up in Tesla. A $10,000 investment in Tesla at the IPO would be worth ~$3.41 million today. BlackRock alone just ordered at least $5B worth of SpaceX shares.

People are taking BANK LOANS to buy the SpaceX IPO. 🚨 One investor tried taking a bank loan. Another asked friends for money. Others are throwing in tens of thousands even while admitting they are willing to overpay. This IPO has turned into a full Elon Musk FOMO event.

Yield is suddenly everywhere. Bonds and treasuries from 4-8%. Real estate at 10%+. Loans of all kinds in high demand. The opportunity cost of holding a non cashflowing, speculative asset like bitcoin is very high. Rough few years ahead for the diamond hands.

America built a house on a broken foundation. When folks noticed the cracks, leaders painted the walls instead of fixing the concrete. First, laws allowed white men to own Black humans. When that stopped, the state wrote the Black Codes. Mississippi made it a crime for a Black man to lack a job, forcing men into unpaid convict labor. When those rules failed, the state wrote quiet rules. In 1933, the Home Owners Loan Corporation drew red lines across federal maps. Banks labeled Black neighborhoods hazardous, ensuring lenders would not approve home loans for Black residents. Next, towns used local real estate taxes to fund public schools. Rich white suburbs kept cash inside their own borders, while redlined Black neighborhoods had zero wealth to tax. The hate never left. It just learned to hide in plain sight.

🚨 Bitcoin dropped 20% in 6 days. $1.57B liquidated. Strategy panic. AI selloff. Bitcoin-backed home loans. Polymarket drama. Crypto kidnappings. @_dsencil and @graminitha1 unpack it all. This episode of The Weekly has everything. 👇

我最近看到一个特别离谱的消息，说有 KOL 靠着这一波 #Lab，直接赚了# 1800 万。看到这个数字的时候，我盯着屏幕沉默了几秒，不是因为震惊，是因为我开始认真反思自己是不是选错了赛道。 有人在 #LAB# 上赚出一套别墅，我却在研究 K 线为什么长这样。 但当情绪过去之后，我在想一个原本没多少人关注的币，到底是怎么突然变成全市场焦点的？为什么价格能连续暴涨？为什么成交量突然爆发？为什么每次觉得“这肯定到顶了”，它还能再往上窜一截？ 于是顺着 LAB 这波行情往下看，我发现很多人聊的是暴涨，而真正有意思的，其实是暴涨背后那群不太喜欢站在聚光灯下的人——做市商。 说到做市商，很多新玩家会以为这是个特别神秘的职业。 实际上他们干的事情很简单：市场没人买的时候，他们来买；市场没人卖的时候，他们来卖；本质上就是加密市场的“热心群众”。 因为交易所最怕什么？最怕你打开一个币，发现买卖盘比你家楼下便利店的货架还空。想买买不到，想卖卖不掉，挂个两万刀直接把价格砸穿三层楼，这种市场体验，谁都受不了。 所以无论是 Binance、Coinbase、OKX 还是其他交易所，本质上都需要做市商不断在买卖两边挂单，把盘口撑起来。交易所赚手续费、项目方要流动性、用户获得交易体验、做市商赚价差。 理论上，这是一个大家都开心的生意，但问题在于，加密市场从来不是一个喜欢按理论运行的地方。尤其到了小币种和新币阶段，事情就开始变得有点微妙了。 因为很多时候，做市商赚的已经不只是买卖价差，他们可能还拿着项目方借出的 Token Loan，拿着未来折扣购买代币的期权，拿着返佣、激励和各种协议奖励。 于是原本负责“搭桌子”的人，有时候也开始参与“组局”。市场角色开始重叠，边界开始模糊，散户看到的是成交量越来越大，盘口越来越厚，价格越来越强，而更深层的视角里，是项目方、做市商、交易所、早期筹码和杠杆资金正在同一个盘口里不断博弈。 所以很多人问做市商到底怎么赚钱？最基础的方式其实非常朴素。比如买一价格 0.99 美元，卖一价格 1.01 美元，中间这两分钱就是利润空间，做市商同时在两边挂单。低一点接，高一点卖，不断重复。每笔利润看起来不大，但架不住交易次数多。 做市和操盘之间，开始出现了一条越来越模糊的灰色地带，比如你经常会看到某个币下面摆着厚厚一层买单，看起来仿佛有神秘资金在护盘。散户一看稳了，下面这么多人接，结果真有人开始砸的时候，那些买单撤得比下班打卡还快。 再比如成交量，很多人最喜欢看放量突破，因为这是传统市场最经典的信号之一。问题是加密市场里，有时候成交量是真的，有时候只是几个账户在互相递烟，筹码左手倒右手，数据很好看，网站排名很好看。问题是外面可能根本没多少新增资金。 还有一种经典操作，先在流动性很薄的小交易所点火，价格拉起来以后，套利机器人开始全网搬砖，于是其他交易所价格被同步带动。散户打开行情软件一看：卧槽，全网都在涨，是不是有内幕消息？实际上很多时候，只是第一块多米诺骨牌被推倒了。 而在 LAB 这一轮行情里，真正值得关注的地方，恰恰不是现货，而是合约。因为从成交结构来看，合约市场的成交额远远超过现货市场，这意味着推动价格的不只是买盘，还有杠杆，还有情绪，还有爆仓。 很多人看到 LAB 暴涨的第一反应是太夸张了，我要做空，结果市场最喜欢教育的，就是那些觉得自己看懂市场的人。因为当空头越来越多的时候，他们自己就会变成未来上涨的燃料。 这也是为什么很多小币的上涨，看起来总有一种不讲道理的感觉，因为推动价格的已经不只是买方，还有被迫买入的空头，你越觉得它不该涨，它可能涨得越疯狂。 当然，说到这里必须强调一点，做市不等于操盘，提供流动性本身是市场正常运转的重要组成部分，没有做市商，很多币甚至无法正常交易。真正的问题在于，当流动性提供、项目激励、筹码管理、市场营销和杠杆博弈全部混在一起的时候，市场就会出现很多普通投资者看不见的东西。 而监管其实已经开始盯上这些灰色地带。像 Spoofing（虚假挂单）、Wash Trading（虚假交易）、Pump and Dump（拉盘出货）以及未披露利益关系等行为，近年来都已经成为监管重点关注对象。 只是市场有个很现实的问题，监管往往是看完录像才吹哨，等调查开始的时候，行情早就结束了，等处罚落地的时候，很多钱包已经完成了财富自由。 所以看完 LAB 这一波，我最大的感受反而不是羡慕那些赚到 1800 万的人。而是越来越觉得在加密市场里，价格只是结果，流动性才是故事开始的地方，当你看到一根 K 线冲天而起的时候，别急着问它还能涨多少。先看看到底是谁，在给这场盛宴搭舞台。

The truth hurts sometimes... Reality is teams/projects in blockchain, not just Cardano, weren't forced to run lean enough. ICOs, Early Raises, and Grants caused companies to scale irresponsibly, miss-manage capital, and have no path towards sustainable revenue. Not pointing my fingers at anyone specifically but it's a clear issue I have seen across many companies, and blockchains. I'm not saying I am some kind of business guru or prophet but I am saying that I have lived the reality of what businesses are facing for over 2 years now. We had to make cuts, sacrifice salaries, rebalance infrastructure, and most importantly, hunt our own food. We survived because we made hard decisions and built real revenue off of services and tools. Outside of blockchain, you constantly hear stories about the entrepreneur who sacrifices everything for their dream. I mean, just go watch an episode of Shark Tank. I tried to embody this to give our team the chance to scale and grow. Gave up my salary, my co founder did as well. We only spent money the last 3 years outside of payroll on RareEvo. I'm no hero for that, I just figured that was the reality of running a business and everyone else in the space was dealing with similar. Boy was I wrong lol. Not saying you have to necessarily struggle to know success, but hitting rock bottom and having to really grind it out changes the way you operate. You won't see me committing to doing a thousand new features for Wayup. It's not realistic in this market with the revenue that the platform produces. We ran Wayup at a net loss of $1800 a month for almost 2 years to get here. Business requires balance and thankfully the work we were doing at Anvil helped us keep it alive for so long. When the revenue allows for us to hire a part/full time dev, the features will start shipping. Want the features faster? Fundraise it. That's what real business do, but they typically start with a revenue producing vehicle. Maybe this is the exodus we are currently seeing in our space. Maybe I'm wrong. Without knowing companies full financials, I can only imagine this to be why. And honestly, I can't blame someone for wanting to build and have a salary. If you want talent, eventually it has to have opportunity. That's what made Cardano so great, the idea of opportunity, and the reality of it. The sinking reality is that opportunity is leaving and being found elsewhere. There's one thing I know for sure. Cardano itself should be focused on revenue. Everyone, and the treasury itself, should be working towards more than transactional volume to the treasury, this is how we win. Loans, Rev-shares, direct shares, any means necessary we need to start treating Cardano as a whole as a business. Charles gave me a great idea earlier in an X space. If the research budget is $5mil in the hole, and we have the best researchers in blockchain, why don't we take advantage of that and start doing research for other chains? Call me crazy but seems like an actual opportunity because I do believe we have great researches and I do not want to see them leave. Cardano treasury could fund the Cardano based research, and subsidize pricing to be competitive to other chains. Then there could be a potential rev share opportunity to rebalance the treasury. These are the type of initiatives I think people would really rally behind and make Cardano more valuable. It would set a really good public image that people are willing to work with Cardano and actually do respect our research driven approach. Regardless of what happens, if we don't start leaning out the end result will be inevitable. I look forward to the responses here and have enjoyed the course of many conversations over the past few days. Call me a shill, call me whatever you want but if you agree with me delegate. I'm making it a point to get more delegation and push my vision of Cardano. drep1ygeyfh8nm03dnl5a2hxdtv09pu7uhep9l0cpg0zpr60jqys05cku2