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bitcoin:native shares a very classic long-term macro on-chain indicator for Bitcoin: STH-RP to TMMP Ratio The ratio of the realized price to the real market average price for short-term holders This indicator clearly reflects the interplay between short-term market speculation and the fair value of the overall market. Current core data: -BTC current price and short-term costs: Currently, both values ​​are around 77.4K. This means that short-term investors who entered the market in recent months, The overall situation is at the break-even point. -Ratio trend: The current ratio is 0.8998, and the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are showing a fluctuating downward trend. On-chain data is clear. Short-term holders' cost basis is converging towards the true market average. The market as a whole is in a phase of deflating the bubble and clearing out speculative capital. Historically, when this ratio spikes, it usually corresponds to a period of market overheating. When this ratio falls below the 0.75 red line (the historical lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022), it indicates the establishment of an absolute bear market bottom. Currently, this ratio is at a relatively neutral to low level of around 0.9. And the trend is still downward. This indicates that the market's blind optimism has been effectively suppressed. The chips are undergoing a thorough turnover. At the break-even point where short-term holders find it unprofitable and even begin to feel anxious. It is often a crucial window for accumulating strength and choosing a direction. Be patient and watch for further crossovers of the cost line. #Onchaindata# #welinkBTC# bitcoin:native

** Correction on key compromise ** A week ago, Drift moved to a new multisig, created by a signer from the old multisig. This signer did not add themselves to the new one. The exploiter also initiated the proposal in the old multisig to hand over admin control to this new wallet. Of the 5 signers on the new multisig, only 1 came from the previous setup; the other 4 were brand-new. The wallet was set with a 2/5 threshold and a 0-second timelock. ~Five hours ago, that sole carryover signer used the new multisig to propose changing Drift’s admin. One of the new signers co-signed a second later, instantly meeting the 2/5 threshold. With no timelock in place, the transaction was executed immediately. ** Note ** Some of the relevant Solana programs are not verified, which limits full analysis. We're continuing to dig into the onchain data and will publish a more thorough post-mortem covering the multisig migration, Solana DeFi contagion, and vault exposure in a follow-up.