与「Polymarket’s」相关的搜索结果

#Polymarket’s# monthly user retention outperforms more than 85 percent of 275 sampled crypto projects, including DeFi protocols, wallets, and exchanges. While many platforms lose users after the first month, its cohorts show meaningfully higher rates of return trading.— Large early trades above the 90th percentile and at least $100 achieve only a 52.3 percent hit rate on final outcomes. That is a statistically detectable but economically modest edge over the roughly 50 percent baseline of all resolved trades. In the 2024 presidential markets, about 40 percent of traders participated exclusively in Trump contracts, and 71.8 percent touched Trump YES at least once. Only 0.7 percent of participants were active across more than two candidates, revealing extreme specialization rather than broad portfolio trading. — Kyle’s lambda in the same election market fell from roughly 0.518 in the early months to about 0.01 by October. As volume expanded, the market’s vulnerability to price impact declined by more than an order of magnitude. — Trading activity in the final quarter showed a clear intraday pattern, peaking between 09:00 and 20:00 UTC. The most frequent traders displayed even sharper concentration during U.S. market hours. — Across resolved markets since 2023, overall predictive accuracy on @Polymarket sits near 73 percent and rises to roughly 84 percent in markets exceeding $100,000 in volume. Only about 3.4 percent of markets faced formal disputes, most of them triggered by ambiguous wording rather than contested facts.

A Chinese college student ran a bot on Polymarket and pulled $218,000 in 10 days. The play was simple: watch BTC in real time on Binance and Coinbase. When Polymarket's odds lag by even a few seconds, jump in first, close the position minutes later. 354 trades, almost all BTC markets. While everyone else argues about the election, he's farming 5-minute price moves. Sometimes the edge isn't better info — it's just being faster.

Today’s been an absolutely stacked day for AI news. In case you missed it: 1. GPT 5.6 Sol and Sol Ultra dropping tomorrow. Early reviews say it’s not as smart as Fable but very positive. 2. Grok 4.5 launches from Cursor / SpaceX that claims Opus 4.7 quality at 80tps and $2/M in $6/M out price. 3. Bytedance Seedream 5 Pro launches as an image ~#2# and nearly as good as GPT Image 2 at 4x cheaper cost: $0.045-$0.09/image, specializing in edits and infographics. Easily beats Meta’s Muse Image. 4. GPT-Live launches a full duplex non-turn based voice model which allows interactions while you’re talking seamlessly, a huge upgrade in audio AI for consumer Coming soon: 1. Seedance 2.5 Pro expected to launch soon (early July) to further extend Bytedance’s lead in SOTA video gen models. Will use Seedream 5 Pro as the frame generator. 2. Gemini 3.5 Pro launching soon (July 17). Google seems to have fallen quite behind frontier and people eagerly await to see what Google can put out here amidst a string of high profile departures. 3. GPT-6 rumored to launch soon (Polymarket spikes at August 14) with a new larger retrain, taking aim at Fable.

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$54,114 on Polymarket Since Mar 30 , this wallet has been averaging about $686 in daily profit while putting through roughly 10 trades per hour 19,576 predictions with a 62% win rate in 76 days He started with about $28.0K in deposits and is now up roughly +183.6% ROI The bot strategy is simple: > It keeps hunting for markets where the board is still slow to react > gets filled before the odds fully catch up then keeps reusing that same setup across a long stream of entries > No single trade carries the whole result, the curve builds from repeating the same small edge over and over Most profitable trades: $1,248 → $2,638 (+$1,389, +111.29%) $992 → $2,247 (+$1,254, +126.49%) $610 → $1,787 (+$1,177, +193.06%) It is a repeatable short-window process that keeps turning delayed repricing into steady PnL You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free Dm for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment What Ever you think about it. ( Mandatory ) 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me @marryevan999

Fake Messi gets subbed on. A few moments later, the deficit is down to one goal. The stat sheet won't tell the full story. The aura definitely will 😭 @Polymarket's Worst Cup is football at its finest and worst.

预测市场开发工具全栈对比：6 个 Polymarket Skill + 3 大平台 API 实测整理 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📦 一、Polymarket Skill 生态（ClawHub） ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ grimoire-polymarket │ franalgaba │ 11.1K⭐ │ │ CLI 工具，安全沙箱设计，阻塞敏感操作 │ │ grimoire venue polymarket search-markets │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ polymarket-api │ agentmc15 │ 613⭐ │ │ Python 开发首选，py-clob-client 完整示例 │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ polymarket │ 2025emma │ 327⭐ │ │ WebSocket 实时数据：trades/comments/rfq/crypto_prices │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ polymarket-prediction-market │ axwelbrand-byte │ 222⭐ │ │ 跨平台套利专用，Polymarket vs Kalshi 策略 │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ polymarket │ machina-sports │ 219⭐ │ │ 体育专用，代码标准化，今日赛事查询 │ ├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ web3-polymarket │ Polymarket 官方 │ 138⭐ │ │ 权威完整，CLOB+CTF+跨链桥+无 Gas 交易+Builder 程序 │ └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘ 我推荐的组合：官方打底 + arbibot 学套利 + 2025emma 监控 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔗 二、三大预测市场 API 对比 【Polymarket｜Polygon】 Base URL: / 认证: EIP-712 签名 + CLOB API Key（L2 HMAC-SHA256） 特色: CLOB 限价订单簿，$2M March Madness 做市激励 费用: ~2% taker，maker ~0% 端点: /events /markets /orderbook /trades 【PredictIt｜传统金融】 Base URL: 认证: 无需 API Key（需处理反爬/会话） 特色: 合规政治事件预测市场 费用: 10% 盈利抽成 限制: $850 单市场持仓上限，$5,000 账户充值上限 端点: /Browse/FilteredMarkets /Market/{id}/Contracts 【Limitless｜Base 链】 Base URL: API Explorer: WebSocket: wss://ws.limitless.exchange 认证: X-API-Key: lmts_xxx（公开端点无需） 特色: 每小时/每日市场，USDC 结算（6 位小数），Base L2 低 Gas 费用: Maker 返佣，流动性挖矿 限速: 并发 2，调用间隔 300ms 端点: /markets/active /markets/{slug} /orderbook ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 三、场景组合建议 快速原型 → agentmc15/polymarket-api + Python 生产交易 → 官方 web3-polymarket + 自建风控 跨平台套利 → arbibot 策略 + Kalshi/PredictIt 双接 实时监控 → 2025emma WebSocket + 事件驱动 体育专用 → machina-sports + 今日赛事 API ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📚 四、参考链接 Polymarket 官方文档: Limitless API Explorer: ClawHub Skills: ccjing 做市商脚本: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 有在用其他预测市场工具的朋友？欢迎评论区补充 👇 #Polymarket# #预测市场# #DeFi# #量化交易# #API开发# #Base链#