SpaceX is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued if you believe Elon and the team can execute on what they just laid out.
At today’s ~$1.51T market cap, SpaceX trades at roughly 48-66x sales.
Is it expensive based on today’s numbers?
Sure.
But look at what happens if the SpaceX team hits the targets shared on the Q2 earnings call:
• $100B ARR by the end of 2026 → ~15x Price/Sales
• $1 Trillion in annual revenue by 2030 → ~1.5x Price/Sales
And fyi, that $1T target was pulled forward from 2031, with Elon saying there’s even a non-zero chance of reaching it in 2029.
You see, SpaceX doesn’t need to stay at a 50x+ sales multiple for today’s valuation to eventually look cheap. If revenue grows ANYWHERE close to management’s roadmap, the denominator catches up super fast and the valuation multiple collapses.
At the same $1.51T market cap, you go from ~48-66x sales today to ~15x at $100B ARR, and eventually just ~1.5x at $1T in revenue.
So investment thesis is actually pretty simple…
Either
1/ management’s targets are wildly wrong…
or
2/ SpaceX at $1.51T is still pricing in far less of the future than people realize.
I’m putting $ where my mouth is that the latter is the case.
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Seedance 2.0 on higgsfield
Prompt:
A photorealistic smartphone selfie vlog that looks exactly like a real mobile phone recording. A young woman (image = her face and hair) visits a cozy thrift store on a sunny afternoon, filming everything herself with a handheld smartphone in selfie mode. The video features natural hand shake, realistic autofocus, slight exposure changes, authentic smartphone stabilization, and true-to-life colors. Smiling at the camera, she says, "Today's thrift store challenge—I'm only buying the first cute thing I find!" She walks through colorful racks of vintage clothes, shelves of accessories, plush toys, and home décor until she spots a random adorable oversized hat. Laughing, she immediately tries it on in front of a mirror, making funny poses and bursting into genuine laughter at how silly she looks. She decides to buy it, walks out of the store holding a small shopping bag, proudly shows her surprise find to the camera, smiles brightly, waves, and says, "See you in the next vlog. Bye!" before reaching toward the phone to stop the recording. The video should feel completely real with natural human movement, consistent facial features, realistic hand interactions, authentic thrift store lighting, no beauty filters, no CGI, no AI-plastic appearance, no subtitles, no logos, no watermark, and no background music—only real store ambience, footsteps, quiet conversations, clothing rustling, and natural environmental sounds.
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