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From an ROI standpoint (hard dollars), I believe a gifting campaign is as good as it gets. The downside is it's also the most operationally complex (lots of labor). Here's how I'd break it down: Investment: A worthwhile gift is likely a minimum of $100. Let's just use that #. And we'll target an audience of 100. So $10k spend on the gifts themselves. Add in handwritten notes ($500 at $5 each) and delivery ($1000 at $10 each) and we're at roughly 11.5k for the campaign. If the gift is good, you'll generate a bunch of meetings with the top 100 prospects in the world for your company. If the gift is great, you'll also get brand awareness through things like recipients posting on social media. There aren't (m)any marketing campaigns I can think of that drive that impact for 11 grand. Operations: to do this well, it's a fair amount of work. You have to come up with the gift, pick your audience, enrich with shipping addresses, order the gifts and handwritten notes to your office, repackage the gift and handwritten note for delivery, and ship them. You then need to follow up on delivery day to ensure receipt and eventually ask for the meeting. I love this type of marketing. There's a framework I like to use that half of marketing spend should directly benefit the target. Most marketing spend goes to 3rd party advertisers (Google, X, Meta, OOH providers, etc). It sounds obvious, but marketing spend that benefits the target (gifts, events like our Monaco Invitational, etc) is far better ROI. It's just more work to do it. So most companies index on the lazy approach and spend most of their marketing budget on paid online ads.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

this isn’t price discovery $HUBC it’s claim discovery. a company can have 1.2m shares outstanding and somehow trade hundreds of millions of shares in a session because the tape is not showing you ownership. it’s showing you how many times the same entitlement can be recycled before settlement asks an uncomfortable question. one real share. lent, borrowed, rehypothecated, internalized, shorted, failed, netted, located, re located, crossed, printed, and repackaged into “liquidity.” then retail gets told the move was organic. sure. the market wants infinite volume from finite float, but only calls it manipulation when the float fights back. every broken microcap squeeze is saying the same thing quietly: shares need serial numbers. real ownership needs visibility. settlement should not be a black box. because when the reported float, the short interest, the FTDs, the borrow feed, and the ownership filings all tell different stories, that is not a market. that is a magic trick with a bid and ask. consensus cracks quietly. then all at once. $HUBC $LASE $HKD $GME $AMC $MULN $TRKA $FFIE $TOP $MEGL

People expect the economic impact of a high-tariff regime to look like a downward step function, like in the image on the left (not expecting 145% tariffs on China -- but let's say 30%). In reality, it will be more like the image on the right. 1. The early response will be muted, as businesses had prepared for the initial shock via inventory buildup 2. Once inventory runs out, businesses can now... stop importing (-> layoffs and bankruptcies), pass on the price increase to consumers (-> runaway inflation), crush their margins (-> layoffs), or some combination of these 3. Due to secondary and tertiary effects, things get a lot worse than anticipated 4. Long-term, supply chains get rerouted to lower-tariff countries (i.e. goods transit there, get repackaged) and imported goods are "just" 10% more expensive across the board. Only minimal reshoring happens. Impact is better than feared (high tariff rate is rarely ever paid) but substantially worse than the prior free trade regime Right now the economy is gutshot, but it won't become obvious for another couple of months -- which will actually encourage the new high-tariff regime to get entrenched. Expect summer and fall to be really bad

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