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The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy?
The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels.
Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call.
On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge.
Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental.
The market is simply catching up.
In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were.
Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap.
But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity.
Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself.
We have seen that cycle play out once already.
So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely. See our full report below.
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Barclay's upgrade $SNDK & revising $MU higher:
SNDK: We think this type of contract fundamentally changes the way memory players can decide and allocate business, making their environment much more secure and protected on the downside
MU: We are of the opinion that as MU signs more of these SCAs they will provide similar information to SNDK, giving details on the financial hooks and potential prepayment structures they are contracting. When these details come to light, we see it as a positive catalyst and another step forward in the sustainability of this memory cycle.
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From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Rio Tinto has cause to revisit a pricier Glencore
ECB to revise inflation, growth forecasts, its chief economist says
China’s revised method for reporting carbon emissions may have erased half of the rise in levels over the past five years, according to new
@CREACleanAir research that raises concerns about tracking climate progress by the world’s biggest emitter. via
@FT
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$BTC
Wouldn’t be shocking at all. Realized price is still sitting around $54K.
If this market truly has another leg down, Bitcoin likely has 3–4 more months left in this phase.
But if we go through that period without revisiting sub-$60K levels, there’s a real possibility we never see those prices again.
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Quick update on HYPE:
We were initially positioned to reload sub-$17 to get ready for next cycle.
But the framework has now materially changed.
From a game theory perspective, the magnitude of the upside deviation should ultimately be mirrored by the magnitude of the downside reversion. In other words, the more reflexive and overextended the move becomes on the way up, the higher the probability of a violent overshoot to the downside.
Our base case now is that HYPE cannot just revisit the $17-20 range anymore at this stage sadly, it will ultimately overextend well below $10 before establishing a true long-term cycle low.
More importantly, the entire structure has now shifted.
The $17-20 region is no longer looking like the optimal reload zone for the next expansion phase. Instead, there’s an increasing probability that this range ultimately becomes the distribution ceiling of the next cycle itself.
We’ve seen this exact reflexive pattern play out before, EOS during the post-2018 unwind, LINK after its macro euphoric expansion. What once looked like “value accumulation” eventually became lower-high exit liquidity in the following cycle.
Very interesting.
So essentially, remove your HYPE orders around $17. That level is too obvious now after the expansion, which means you will get front-run by the market before any meaningful reversal materializes.
We will keep you posted once HYPE forms a new bottom sub $10 (probably around $7-8)
We will find the bottom together, and there should be a nice long to do, until the relief back to $17-20. Not guaranted that HYPE bounces back to $20, but highly highly likely
This sould be an easy 2-2.5x at least
And with leverage, we could probably pull a 10x
Please be patient, we will revert in a few months
For now, short only
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USAN EL FANSERVICE COMO ESCUDO
El estudio japonés detrás del popular videojuego Bunny Garden acaba de revelar que dotar a sus protagonistas femeninas de proporciones exageradas no es una simple fantasía artística, sino la única forma de sobrevivir a la censura moderna.
El CEO Yuji Usuda confesó que diseñar mujeres adultas con atributos físicos reducidos se volvió "altamente riesgoso" ante las plataformas occidentales. Para evitar prohibiciones y bloqueos de venta, la empresa estableció como regla de supervivencia corporativa que absolutamente todas sus chicas tengan figuras exuberantes.
En su intento por imponer restricciones morales en la industria, las juntas revisoras terminaron obligando a los desarrolladores japoneses a multiplicar el fanservice.
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The UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey was revised lower in May and continues to sit at a record low … so yes, this batch of consumers is saying today is worse than the financial crisis and 2020 pandemic shutdown
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