Watch the full recording of our Q2 2026 earnings call.
Prepared Remarks
00:00:00 - Welcome
00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin
00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage
00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020
00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management
00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased
00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance
00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume
00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination
00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics
01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition
Q&A
01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves
01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility
01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt
01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin
01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par
02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management
02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par
02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 dislocation
02:34:54 - Closing remarks
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I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test.
Not the cute kind.
The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind.
Starting point:
BTC: $59,135
MSTR: $87.64
Total BTC: 847,363
Cash: $1.4B
CEBE: 138,161 sats/share
Claim ratio: 41.5%
Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6.
The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes.
It explodes in BTC terms.
Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC.
Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%.
Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC.
CEBE gets annihilated:
138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share.
MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01.
That is the horror movie.
Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10.
But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable.
The model assumes:
Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance.
$167.7M/month of obligations.
Cash gone by month 9.
BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted.
Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack.
That is real damage.
But it still ends with 731,636 BTC.
Final state:
BTC: $48,498
MSTR: $51.86
mNAV: 1.40x
Common equity BTC: 274,093
CEBE: 76,380 sats/share
Claim ratio: 62.5%
MSTR survives.
The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives.
The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you.
The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms.
Survival is not comfort.
But death spiral?
This model says no.
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