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昨日はひよとと #SPEDIE# のタッグに出たよ〜！ 飛んじゃったから他のトナメも出て朝まで過ごした(笑) EGPトナメしか行ったことないし初めてのタッグ戦だったし都会に出た田舎娘状態だったけど、めちゃくちゃ楽しかった😸💖😸

Elon Musk was asked how long until there is regular travel to Mars. His answer was not about rockets. He said the threshold that actually matters is whether Mars survives if the ships from Earth stop coming. That means every input: air, food, fuel, spare parts, medicine. He compared it to a long sea voyage where the only thing missing is vitamin C. One missing item and the colony dies on schedule. The ships could stop for reasons that have nothing to do with Mars. A war. A decline. An asteroid. His line: civilisation on Earth can end with a bang or a whimper. That is insurance logic, and it is the honest way to describe the Mars plan. Every policy has a premium, a probability and a payout. The payout here is the survival of the species, so the premium is nearly impossible to argue against. The probability is the part nobody can price. Which creates a strange corporate problem. The premium gets paid by companies whose shareholders will not be the ones rescued if the policy ever pays out. SpaceX is private, so its investors signed up for that. A public company could not easily spend decades of free cash flow on a backup planet and explain it on a quarterly call. The other catch is that redundancy is only worth what you spend testing it. A city is not self-sustaining because the plan says so. It is self-sustaining the day the ships stop and everyone lives. So the number worth watching is not the landing date. It is the date Mars stops needing Earth. Nobody is selling a ticket to that.

Gemini 4 Carbon is now rolling out to developers, enterprises, scientists, and consumers! We built it to be a true partner for your hardest coding, research, and engineering workflows. Here's a fun example where Carbon read research papers on how songbirds sing and built an interactive model of a bird’s vocal organ…tuning the live audio physics against real bird recordings so you can hear 6 species sing or play it like a music synthesizer.

Our strongest frontier model, Gemini 4 Carbon, is now available. Built for deeply complex, long-horizon workflows that push a frontier model’s intelligence, Carbon delivers frontier performance in agentic workflows across complex knowledge work, software engineering and web development, cybersecurity, and scientific reasoning. While Gemini 4 Argon remains the ideal model for the majority of software engineering and knowledge work, Carbon steps in for your hardest tasks that push a model to its limits — from complex, multi-step debugging to open-ended scientific research. Available starting today: — Consumers: use it in the @GeminiApp and AI Mode in Search for Google AI Ultra subscribers — Developers and Enterprises: build via the API in @GoogleAIStudio and @AndroidStudio, Google @Antigravity for Google AI Ultra subscribers, and Gemini for business — Scientists and Researchers: apply for a chance to get 6 months free via @Antigravity — Cybersecurity Defenders: apply to join the Fairwind Program for access to Carbon for cyber Watch how Carbon brings reasoning and coding together, turning avian research into an interactive 3D simulation of a songbird’s vocal organ that synthesizes the sounds of six bird species live.

The croc family tree may be getting a new branch. Analyzing fossilized remains discovered in the same bedrock that built the Great Sphinx, paleontologists newly identified a crocodilian species that once roamed a shallow sea in what’s now Egypt about 45 million years ago.

This is like a weird new species of dude that’s never existed before. Running to the internet to publicly lecture your male friends for mildly edgy jokes. The lamest bullshit I’ve ever seen. And it’s increasingly common, it seems. Pitiful.

I wonder what’s happening in the life of an intelligent alien in a galaxy far away. Trippy to think about since there’s a 0% chance we’re the only intelligently evolved species in the universe. Do you think they stream?

Elon Musk admitted he is not sure this one is possible. Musk: “This absorbs more of my mental energy than probably any other single thing. But it is so preposterously difficult that there are times where I wonder whether we can actually do this.” He does not talk like this. Mars gets a date. Robotaxis get a date. This gets a maybe. Stern: “What is so hard about it for just a normal person to understand?” His answer comes down to a single number. Musk: “In order to make a rocket fully reusable, you’ve got to basically create a rocket that can do about 4%, if not more than 4%, of its lift-off mass to orbit, which hasn’t happened before.” Four percent. Everything else standing on that pad is fuel, tank, and engine. The landing gear, the heat shield, the extra structure that survives reentry, all of it comes out of that same four. None of it can be left behind. The vehicle has to come home. Musk: “So that means you have to have basically A-pluses across the board: incredibly efficient engines, incredibly efficient structure.” Across the board is what makes this brutal. Most engineering lets you buy a weakness in one place with strength somewhere else. The margin here is thin enough that one component landing at merely excellent drops the whole vehicle below the line. Nothing carries anything. Musk: “But if full and rapid reusability can be achieved, it reduces the cost of access to orbit by a factor of 100 or more.” A hundred times cheaper turns nearly every question about space from whether into when. Telescopes, stations, factories, missions that never made it past a spreadsheet. Musk: “So we’ve got to get rockets to the point where we simply refuel the rocket and we don’t throw it away.” Every other vehicle humans build already works that way. Space is the one place we still build the machine, use it once, and let it fall into the ocean. Musk: “It’s the difference between humanity being a single-planet species and a multi-planet species. It’s really that big of a deal.” Now put his doubt in context. Landing an orbital booster upright was considered impossible by most of the industry. He spent years being told so while boosters exploded on barges. Those landings became routine, then boring, then unwatched. Then they stopped using legs. A twenty story booster came back from the edge of space, slowed itself, and hovered next to the tower it launched from. Two arms closed around it and took its weight in midair. Nothing touched the ground. That was a headline for about a day. He has been on this side of impossible before, more than once. Doubt from him measures how hard the thing is at the start rather than how it ends. Most people never attempt anything where failure is genuinely on the table. He found the hardest problem available and made it the center of his life. That is what real ambition looks like from the inside. Not certainty. A number nobody has ever hit, and showing up to it every morning until it falls.

If an alien visited earth and asked you: “Show me one chart that sits upstream of everything your species has accomplished or will ever accomplish.” What would you show them? I would show them the chart below. From my perspective, as long as we keep this chart going, we will figure it all out…