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$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) $SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers). $IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies). $ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals). And now $XFAB at $9. I’m not always right. But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

Elon Musk’s goal for The Boring Company is to solve one of the most miserable daily experiences on Earth: traffic Cities are three-dimensional But transportation is still mostly trapped in a two-dimensional surface network Roads, intersections, bottlenecks, traffic lights, accidents, construction, weather - everything gets stacked on the same flat layer until the entire system chokes The Boring Company’s answer is simple but radical: Go underground Build fast, low-cost tunnel networks under major cities and turn transportation into true 3D infrastructure Right now, the focus is on making tunneling dramatically faster and cheaper with machines like Prufrock, which is designed to mine continuously while installing tunnel liner at the same time But the long-term vision goes much further Local Loop tunnels could move people across cities without surface traffic, while future Hyperloop-style systems could connect entire cities at ultra-high speed Imagine going from Los Angeles to San Francisco, New York to Washington D.C., or Dubai to Abu Dhabi in a fraction of today’s travel time - underground, electric, direct, and protected from surface congestion That is the real mission: Building the missing third dimension of transportation This is how you actually attack soul-destroying traffic at civilization scale

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AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them.  There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.

Elon Musk built a second internet above the first one. Nobody asked him to. Thousands of satellites orbit at 550 kilometers. Moving at 25 times the speed of sound. Talking to each other through lasers in the vacuum of space. Musk: “Thousands of satellites providing low latency, high-speed internet throughout the world.” Before Starlink, satellite internet lived at 36,000 kilometers. Geostationary orbit. Signals traveling a tenth of the way to the moon before bouncing back. The lag made it barely functional. Musk dropped the altitude by 98%. One decision rewrote the physics of an entire industry. But the altitude wasn’t the real play. Musk: “There are laser links between the satellites. It forms a laser mesh. The satellites can communicate between each other and provide connectivity even if the cables are cut.” Every internet connection you’ve ever used runs through cables. Fiber optic lines buried in soil. Dragged across ocean floors. Threaded through chokepoints that every military maps before anything else. A single anchor drop can black out a country. An earthquake can sever a continent. The entire digital world hangs from threads in the mud. Musk built a network that doesn’t touch the ground. No cables. No trenches. No ocean floor. No single point of failure. A constellation of machines whispering to each other through light at the edge of the atmosphere. The men who tried before him weren’t fools. Gates backed Teledesic at the height of Microsoft’s power. Motorola built Iridium with the best engineers alive. Both paid someone else to reach orbit. Both went to zero. Musk owned the rocket. SpaceX made launch reusable. Built the satellites in-house. Flew them on its own rockets. Owned every inch of the chain from factory floor to orbit. That isn’t a cost advantage. It’s a moat no one can cross without first building a rocket company from scratch. Starlink passed 10 million subscribers as a side project. Every telecom executive on Earth watched it happen. Not one of them can explain the architecture underneath. They think he built a better satellite company. He built the only network that survives when the ground gives out. And the ground always gives out.

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