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Elon Musk: “Path to Petawatts is Mass drivers on Moon” SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver is a planned electromagnetic launch system on the Moon, similar to a giant coilgun-style catapult, designed to launch solar-powered AI compute satellites into orbit or deep space at extremely low cost

股票市场效率无法像博彩市场那样直接验证，因为股票不存在固定揭晓时间，真实价值始终取决于未来现金流，因此金融学始终存在Joint Hypothesis Problem：任何异常收益都无法证明市场无效，因为也可能只是定价模型本身错误。同时作者区分了“Prices are Right”和“No Free Lunch”两个概念，价格存在偏离，并不意味着能够稳定套利，因为套利成本可能高于错误定价本身。 连续双向竞价（Continuous Double Auction）本身就是市场效率的重要来源。Hayek、Vernon Smith以及Zero-Intelligence Trader研究共同说明，即便参与者并不聪明，只要交易机制合理，市场仍能快速逼近有效价格。因此市场制度的重要性甚至可能超过市场参与者本身的能力。 股票市场真正进入“群体疯狂”的根源，是认知多样性的崩塌。当投资者逐渐形成相同叙事、相同时间框架以及相同交易规则时，市场开始偏离价值。长期投资者倾向于围绕现金流定价，而短周期投资者更容易外推近期价格，因此实验中短周期市场持续形成泡沫。Narrative进一步强化这种过程，使情绪、故事与价格互相反馈，最终形成Boom或Bust，而这种崩塌往往呈现非线性，一点点认知收敛即可引发巨大价格波动。 Michael Mauboussin最终给出的交易框架可以浓缩为一句话：市场绝大多数时间体现的是群体智慧，因此价格通常有效；真正值得交易的机会来自群体智慧失效之后的群体疯狂。交易员真正需要监测的并非价格本身，而是认知多样性是否正在消失。 实践中，极端情绪（Sentiment）、剧烈价格运动（Major Price Move）以及极端估值（Extreme Valuation）同时出现，是认知多样性崩塌最常见的表现，也是市场最容易出现重大反转和超额收益机会的位置。

Hot take… isn’t it kinda crazy that nobody is really using AI Agents? I don’t mean software engineers or AI early adopters. I mean “college friends talking about it in group chat,” the feeling you got when everyone started using Instagram or TikTok. These frontier AI models are *insane* (as are the harnesses & tool calls & the like). And every large tech co has an AI agents platform, not to mention all the YC startups doing vertical agents. Yet all of your friends and family outside of tech — who spend all day staring at their iPhones and get paid to work in browser tabs — don’t really care or find themselves using any AI agents yet. Yes ChatGPT, Claude, etc. are extremely popular… but if you look at the engagement data the vast majority of people are still using these aI chat tools like a glorified Google + Grammarly. That’s why the AGI labs are all pushing desktop apps for Codex, Cowork, etc. so hard to non-technical ppl. And yes exceptions for lawyers and customer service but even those have some asterisks and exceptions to rule. Look I’m not saying the ChatGPT moment for AI Agents is not coming… it most definitely is! Remember we pivoted from Arc to Dia precisely because we believe computing is going to be radically reimagined around these AI primitives. No doubt. But that’s my point: it’s just so surprising it hasn’t happened yet because all of the tech you’d need is there. Again if you stop for a second and think about it… for all the press and money and hype and models and crazy ARR numbers… this “AI Agent” moment does not *feel* like the other breakthrough tech moments we’ve lived through (e.g. think the shift to Stories via Snapchat & Instagram, or shift to on-demand via Uber/Airbnb/Doordash). Which is a long way of saying: if you can figure out the answer to “why” most people don’t care about AI agents yet (and have no enduring interest in using them) — especially since the models and harnesses are here and ready — the answer to that question will allow you to capture a lot of marketshare and make a lot of money in 2027. Theoretically, the tech is ready for AI Agents to totally transform how we work and live our lives… but alas the general public dgaf… that’s the generational puzzle to solve for the next 12 months for anyone not working on the models themselves.

We posted our second quarter 2026 financial and operational results → Q2 highlights: - Demonstrated the power of extreme vertical integration, delivering revenue growth of 92% year-over-year across Space, Connectivity, and AI - Completed two successful Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days, advancing towards full and rapid reusability - Closed multiple industry-leading Cloud Services Agreements resulting in $14.1 billion of contracted sales - Announced agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to accelerate the AI enterprise opportunity - Released our most powerful AI model yet with Grok 4.5 in July - Delivered 66% revenue and 79% income from operations growth year-over-year for the Connectivity segment, driven by a doubling of Starlink Subscribers and continued momentum in Enterprise & Government - Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield As compared to the same quarter last year: - Revenues of $7.8 billion, up 92% from $4.1 billion - Net loss of $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from net loss of $1.0 billion - Adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, up 191% from $1.2 billion Thank you to the SpaceX team, and all our customers and investors for a great quarter!

We posted our second quarter 2026 financial and operational results → Q2 highlights: · Demonstrated the power of extreme vertical integration, delivering revenue growth of 92% year-over-year across Space, Connectivity, and AI · Completed two successful Starship V3 flight tests in the past 90 days, advancing towards full and rapid reusability · Closed multiple industry-leading Cloud Services Agreements resulting in $14.1 billion of contracted sales · Announced agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion to accelerate the AI enterprise opportunity · Released our most powerful AI model yet with Grok 4.5 in July · Delivered 66% revenue and 79% income from operations growth year-over-year for the Connectivity segment, driven by a doubling of Starlink Subscribers and continued momentum in Enterprise & Government · Awarded over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contracts for Starshield As compared to the same quarter last year: · Revenues of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% from $4.07 billion · Net loss of $541 million, an improvement of $467 million from net loss of $1.01 billion · Adjusted EBITDA of $3.54 billion, up 191% from $1.21 billion Thank you to the SpaceX team, and all our customers and investors for a great quarter!

🟠 #Bitcoin# has become “very quiet,” according to Glassnode, with spot volumes, exchange flows, and vols all sitting at extreme levels. Meanwhile, treasuries are out-yielding the crypto carry trade for just the second time on record.

#Polymarket’s# monthly user retention outperforms more than 85 percent of 275 sampled crypto projects, including DeFi protocols, wallets, and exchanges. While many platforms lose users after the first month, its cohorts show meaningfully higher rates of return trading.— Large early trades above the 90th percentile and at least $100 achieve only a 52.3 percent hit rate on final outcomes. That is a statistically detectable but economically modest edge over the roughly 50 percent baseline of all resolved trades. In the 2024 presidential markets, about 40 percent of traders participated exclusively in Trump contracts, and 71.8 percent touched Trump YES at least once. Only 0.7 percent of participants were active across more than two candidates, revealing extreme specialization rather than broad portfolio trading. — Kyle’s lambda in the same election market fell from roughly 0.518 in the early months to about 0.01 by October. As volume expanded, the market’s vulnerability to price impact declined by more than an order of magnitude. — Trading activity in the final quarter showed a clear intraday pattern, peaking between 09:00 and 20:00 UTC. The most frequent traders displayed even sharper concentration during U.S. market hours. — Across resolved markets since 2023, overall predictive accuracy on @Polymarket sits near 73 percent and rises to roughly 84 percent in markets exceeding $100,000 in volume. Only about 3.4 percent of markets faced formal disputes, most of them triggered by ambiguous wording rather than contested facts.

800 million people were lifted out of extreme poverty in China thanks to a little bit of capitalism. Central planning doesn’t work. At least Deng Xiaoping saw Mao’s catastrophic blunders and understood that. Which is why when he took power, he ripped out the collectivized economy by the roots. >let farmers work their own plots and sell what they grew instead of farming for the state (food production soared almost overnight) >carved out Special Economic Zones like Shenzhen where foreign capital could operate under different rules than the rest of communist China > poverty crashed from nearly 90% in 1981 to under 4% by 2016 On his Southern Tour in 1992, Deng told CCP officials “to get rich is glorious.” He was right btw. And it is best done through private property and free markets.