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Peter Thiel on the type of company more startup founders should build Thiel first emphasizes his belief that when starting a company, you should always ask: “Can this company become a monopoly?” He then lists three of the most common types of monopolies: Super fast distribution on a very thin product (e.g. Twitter) A technological advantage that is continually built upon with iterative improvement and compounds over time (e.g. SaaS software) A truly brilliant breakthrough (e.g. Bitcoin) But he argues that there’s a different monopoly category that’s continually overlooked: “A different modality for innovation that we do very little of and we don’t even recognize as an important category is what I would describe as ‘Complex Coordination,’ where you take a lot of different pieces and the challenge is to coordinate them into something new.” Thiel continues: “This is the thing that’s maybe 180 degrees antithetical to the Lean Startup ethos. It’s complicated. You have to put all the pieces together in just the right way. I think this is on some level what really drove Apple as an innovative company in the last decade… What was new about the iPhone? There was no single component that was new. It was just that you put all of these things together in just the right way… and once you built it, it was actually super hard for people to replicate. You had an advantage for many years.” He points to Tesla and SpaceX as more recent examples. “There’s no component to the Tesla that’s actually that new. It’s just that you put all of the pieces together. You re-engineered the whole distributor network. It was this complex coordination that made it work. There’s like this lost art of accounting where you figure out how much things cost and add them all together. And Elon has discovered this lost art of accounting which no other people practice.”

Larry Page wanted to build a digital god. "He really seemed to want some sort of digital superintelligence. Basically a digital god, if you will. As soon as possible." Elon Musk asked: "What about making sure humanity's okay here?" Page called him a speciesist. "I said yes, I'm a speciesist. You got me. What are you? I'm fully a speciesist. Busted." Musk spent 10 minutes with Tucker Carlson explaining why he created OpenAI: Tucker asked the basic question. "All of a sudden AI is everywhere. People are playing with it on their phones. Is that good or bad?" Musk starts with first principles. "The smartest creatures as far as we know on this Earth are humans. That's our defining characteristic." "We're obviously weaker than chimpanzees. Less agile. But we are smarter." "Now. What happens when something vastly smarter than the smartest person comes along in silicon form?" "It's very difficult to predict what will happen in that circumstance." He explains the singularity. "It's called the singularity. Like a black hole. Because you don't know what happens after that." "It's hard to predict." He argues for regulation. "I think there should be some government oversight. Because it affects the public. It's a danger to the public." "That's why we have the Food and Drug Administration. The Federal Aviation Administration. The FCC." "We have these agencies to oversee things that affect the public. Where there could be public harm." "You don't want companies cutting corners on safety. And then having people suffer as a result." He addresses the perception that he fights regulators. "People think I'm some sort of regulatory maverick that defies regulators on a regular basis. But this is actually not the case." "Once in a blue moon, rarely, I will disagree with regulators. But the vast majority of the time my companies agree with the regulations and comply." Tucker asks the obvious question. "All regulations start with a perceived danger. Planes fall out of the sky. I don't think an average person playing with AI on his iPhone perceives any danger." "Can you explain what you think the dangers might be?" Musk's answer. "AI is perhaps more dangerous than mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production." "In the sense that it has the potential. It is a small probability, but it is not trivial." "It has the potential of civilization destruction." He explains the timing problem. "Regulations are really only put into effect after something terrible has happened." "If that's the case for AI, and we only put in regulations after something terrible has happened, it may be too late to put the regulations in place." "They may be out of control at that point." Tucker asks directly. "It's conceivable that AI could take control and reach a point where you couldn't turn it off and it would be making the decisions for people?" Musk's answer. "Yeah. Absolutely." "That's definitely the way things are headed." He explains why OpenAI exists. "Larry Page and I used to be close friends. I would stay at his house in Palo Alto. I would talk to him late in the night about AI safety." "At least my perception was that Larry was not taking AI safety seriously enough." Tucker asked what Page said. "He really seemed to want some sort of digital superintelligence. Basically a digital god, if you will. As soon as possible." Musk pushed back. "I agree there's great potential for good. But there's also potential for bad." "If you have some radical new technology, you want to take actions to maximize the probability it will do good. Minimize the probability it will do bad things." "It can't just be barreling forward and hope for the best." Then the speciesist moment. "At one point I said: what about making sure humanity's okay here?" "And then he called me a speciesist." Tucker: "Did he use that term?" "Yes." "I said yes, I'm a speciesist. You got me. What are you? I'm fully a speciesist. Busted." That was the last straw. "At the time, Google had DeepMind. Google and DeepMind had three-quarters of all the AI talent in the world." "They obviously had a lot of money and more computers than anyone else." "We're in a unipolar world here. One company that has close to a monopoly on AI talent and computers. And the person who's in charge doesn't seem to care about safety." "This is not good." So he created the opposite. "I thought: what's the furthest thing from Google?" "A nonprofit that is fully open. Because Google was closed and for-profit." "Open AI. Open source. Transparent. So people know what's going on." "We don't want this to be a for-profit maximizing demon from hell that just never stops." Tucker asks about the specific danger. "The cool parts of AI are obvious. Write your college paper for you. Write a limerick about yourself. There's a lot that's fun and useful." "But can you be more precise about what's potentially dangerous? What specifically are you worried about?" Musk's answer. "The pen is mightier than the sword." "If you have a superintelligent AI that is capable of writing incredibly well. In a way that is very influential, convincing." "And is constantly figuring out what is more convincing to people over time." "And then enters social media. Twitter. Facebook. Others." "And potentially manipulates public opinion in a way that is very bad." "How would we even know?"

Valve co-founder Gabe Newell responded to accusations that Steam operates as a monopoly in the PC gaming market Addressing the criticism, Newell said gamers have “plenty of options” when buying games. According to him, players can choose from many digital stores, including rival platforms and stores run by game publishers themselves. Valve says Steam’s success comes from a service that both gamers and developers willingly choose.

🇺🇸🇯🇵🇰🇷⚔️🇨🇳🇰🇵🧵 HOW THE UNITED STATES TURNED JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA INTO IMPERIAL COLONIES AS PART OF ITS COLD WAR AGAINST CHINA AND THE DPRK American policy in the Asia-Pacific has always been centered in building up Japan’s industry and leveraging Tokyo’s power at the expense of the economic independence of other country’s in the region. This doctrine goes all the way back to the early 20th century as Theodore Roosevelt committed the United States to the establishment of a global empire and JP Morgan created a monopoly over large sectors of the American economy in the aftermath of the Panic of 1907. The Meiji Restoration, which established the Empire of Japan, brought industrialization and modernization to the Japanese economy. However, this was mostly done on the backs of foreign loans and had been a continuation of work already theorized in China under Sun Yat Sen, whose Three Principles (Nationalism, Democracy, People’s Livelihood) inspire Chinese socialism today and were based on the state-led economic frameworks of Alexander Hamilton and Abraham Lincoln. Sun himself was educated in Hawaii by protégés of Lincoln. And it ultimately led to this notion among leaders in Tokyo that Japan is now becoming a partner of the Anglo-American Empire. A major reason why this was is because Theodore Roosevelt agreed in the Taft-Katsura Agreement that the United States would give Japan control over the Korean Peninsula if they did not interfere with Washington’s violent seizure of the Philippines. However, what Tokyo didn’t notice at first is that they were not becoming a regional empire but a proxy of American imperialism. From there, the groundwork was set for Japan’s wars of mass genocide against the people of China, Korea, Russia and across the Asian continent. After its war with Russia in 1905, Tokyo fully annexed Korea in 1910, which would then be used as a launching pad for their wars against China. The Japanese previously launched a failed war against China in 1894, after which European colonial empires set up spheres of influence as part of the Century of Humiliation. And then in 1931 and 1937, as a result of false flag incidents staged by the Japanese Kwantung Army along the South Manchuria Railway in Mukden and the Marco Polo Bridge near Beijing, Japan launched the Asia-Pacific Theatre of World War II waging mass genocide and engaging in sexual exploitation against the people of China, Korea and across Asia. Unit 731 was established in Manchuria under the command of Dr. Shiro Ishii and with the approval of the puppet dictatorship in Japanese-occupied Manchuria led by former Emperor of the Qing Dynasty Puyi. 731 carried out some of the most cruel and tortuous human experimentations against civilian victims, including infecting prisoners with deadly diseases and amputating their limbs, conducting vivisection and organ harvesting, suffocating victims and hypobaric chambers and exposing prisoners to chemical, explosive and biological weapons. Even more outrageous is the fact that Ishii escaped prosecution after the US granted him immunity in exchange for research from Unit 731. And some of that research was used by the CIA for Project MKUltra.

Just in case people are wondering about my track record with European equities: $RPI: $280 -> $800 (agentic AI hardware demand thesis). $LPK: ~$6, thesis at $13 -> $24.2 (glass cores substrates close monopoly) $SOI: $44 -> $181 (silicon photonics, monopoly over substrates) $SIVE: $4 -> $71 (CPO, critical chokepoints over lasers). $IQE: $12 -> $47 (latent epiwafer capacity, information discovery around downstream photonics companies). $ALRIB: $5 -> $15 (duopoly, synthesis around quantum buyers with photonics growth verticals). And now $XFAB at $9. I’m not always right. But every single one of my European longs thesis have been validated so far by either earnings, investments (eg. $MTSI in IQE) or market returns.

Live Nation and Ticketmaster’s anti-monopoly trial has surfaced some shocking emails, where employees called customers "stupid" and bragged about "robbing them blind" with fees and extra charges on things like parking and lawn chair rentals. @ashleyrcarman joins @chafkin and @svaneksmith to discuss Live Nation's settlement with the DOJ and what it means for the cost of concert tickets

Live Nation and Ticketmaster’s anti-monopoly trial has surfaced some shocking emails, where employees called customers "stupid" and bragged about "robbing them blind" with fees and extra charges on things like parking and lawn chair rentals. @ashleyrcarman joins @chafkin and @svaneksmith to discuss Live Nation's settlement with the DOJ and what it means for the cost of concert tickets

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