Arthur MacWaters (@ArthurMacwaters)

It’s always funny how people in SF twitter bubble will say things like “Claude has unbeatable narrative momentum” and then 2 weeks later “wow did Kimi just end the race” My brother in Christ nobody outside of this little bubble even calls any AI anything other than “Chat” and they think datacenters destroy water molecules You sound dumb. Focus on things that actually impact people not the little scores on overfit evals And also people who bet against Elon are stupid. The man built real world self driving cars (non-LLM based AI) that is still the best AI I’ve ever used by far. You think he can’t come from behind and win on writing code? He’s literally catching 30 story buildings with chopsticks and that’s like one of his projects I like a lot of the tools and have friends at all the main labs. Truly amazing work being done. But the overblown commentators are actually so out of touch

SF spends more than $1,000,000,000/yr now on homelessness (5x increase in 5 years) A wild number. And yet the homeless population has only gotten larger Because incentives determine results – if an NGO is paid by how many homeless people they manage, you can guarantee they will not reduce that number These are real human lives who are ruined by the incompetence and greed of NGOs and bureaucrats Don't let communists run your cities

Milton Friedman said we can't have free immigration and a welfare state He was wrong Turns out that if you create pathways for illegal immigrants to vote, then actually, 100% of the time you INEVITABLY end up with both a welfare state and free immigration Because incentives determine actions Whichever politicians realize they can essentially use taxpayer dollars to fund welfare to import voters will exploit this hack ruthlessly 1. Offer welfare 2. Allow illegal immigration 3. Let illegal immigrants vote (they will 100% of the time vote for more welfare) 4. Win office 5. Raise taxes, offer more welfare, repeat It's a self-reinforcing feedback loop Allowing illegal immigrants to count in the census and vote cements this loop Literally only 12 states require proof of citizenship to register to vote. Look it up. It's horrifying. That is why 15m illegal immigrants came across the border in 4 yrs. It is game theory the only smart thing to do This ends in disaster

Some have questioned Elon's choice to invest heavily in Grok Imagine early (eg before coding models) It makes sense if you consider his love for the fundamental freedom of expression Hollywood and the streaming platforms have had a monopoly on production and distribution. They are, in all functional ways, a cultural propaganda engine. Every civilization needs one. But who owns it? Very soon, you will. You could say it was technically inevitable that AI video would get good enough to be enjoyable. But it only *felt* inevitable recently when I saw 1) the Spencer Pratt AI election ads which were actually funny and 2) the Sweet Land music video by @heavypulp which was actually poignant (enough so that I listened/watched 4x) AI images are already really good, but they aren't nearly as powerful. Movies are the most potent cultural propaganda tool of all time, but AI has sucked at them. Not anymore. Grok Imagine + a talented creator is now producing content good enough to enjoy without asterisks. The AI version of the Odyssey, no matter how long and expensive it is to produce, will be 3+ orders of magnitude (1000x) less expensive than Nolan's Which means that nearly everyone will be able to try. And based on this short clip, the output will actually be good. Frankly it doesn't even have to be perfect. As long as it is good, the damage to the existing power structure will be done. A solo creator with a vision will be able to singlehandedly put out work that is *actually enjoyable*, direct to the public, with literally no physical overhead. The cultural landscape will change really quickly. Individual people can express a vision in the most powerful medium yet discovered, unadulterated by tastemasters at the studios. We're at the rubicon, about to cross over. The propaganda engine will become distributed to the people, and the outcomes will be judged purely on resonance. This was Elon's point, in my opinion.

Socialists under Stalin killed 20,000,000 people. Under Mao 65,000,000 The National Socialist Party was **Socialist** All told, socialists are responsible for 100,000,000+ deaths in the last century. Think about that. They will gladly take 100 million more if given the chance. Because they think they are justified. Socialism is the worst ideology ever conceived by man. It is a form of religious extremism where the god is envy and worship is cruelty, justified by greed. It has never "worked" and never will. When idiots like Hassan Piker espouse socialism, they should be humiliated ruthlessly and potentially criminally charged. Same with university professors. Never give it a single inch.

Open borders and a welfare state is essentially just gerrymandering by immigration Most people are unaware that illegal immigrants are counted in the census that determines how many representatives each state gets And that only 12 states actually require proof of citizenship to register to vote This obviously creates a perverted incentive for politicians When it’s easier to create new voters than win voters over, you have a serious problem

Impressive Intelligence vs. Cost for Grok 4.5 I think given terafab + the Tesla FSD team's expertise in making very efficient AI models, this advantage will only continue to compound

Naming it USAID was brilliant honestly because most people are too dumb to even ask what it really does It’s like naming something “Save the Orphan Puppies Org” - what do you mean Elon got rid of it, does he hate puppies?! It’s like no, Save the Puppies was sending money to the literal taliban

When you read about how USAID was started by ex-CIA people, funneled state department money through NGOs into crazy subterfuge and censorship that no taxpayer would ever know about or approve, you realize how wild it was. It’s basically like Elon got rid of Hydra from marvel and people are mad about it.