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Quick update on HYPE: We were initially positioned to reload sub-$17 to get ready for next cycle. But the framework has now materially changed. From a game theory perspective, the magnitude of the upside deviation should ultimately be mirrored by the magnitude of the downside reversion. In other words, the more reflexive and overextended the move becomes on the way up, the higher the probability of a violent overshoot to the downside. Our base case now is that HYPE cannot just revisit the $17-20 range anymore at this stage sadly, it will ultimately overextend well below $10 before establishing a true long-term cycle low. More importantly, the entire structure has now shifted. The $17-20 region is no longer looking like the optimal reload zone for the next expansion phase. Instead, there’s an increasing probability that this range ultimately becomes the distribution ceiling of the next cycle itself. We’ve seen this exact reflexive pattern play out before, EOS during the post-2018 unwind, LINK after its macro euphoric expansion. What once looked like “value accumulation” eventually became lower-high exit liquidity in the following cycle. Very interesting. So essentially, remove your HYPE orders around $17. That level is too obvious now after the expansion, which means you will get front-run by the market before any meaningful reversal materializes. We will keep you posted once HYPE forms a new bottom sub $10 (probably around $7-8) We will find the bottom together, and there should be a nice long to do, until the relief back to $17-20. Not guaranted that HYPE bounces back to $20, but highly highly likely This sould be an easy 2-2.5x at least And with leverage, we could probably pull a 10x Please be patient, we will revert in a few months For now, short only

My current Codex setup works surprisingly well. Model: Fast GPT-5.4 High, Personality: Pragmatic. I also use these custom instructions,You might want to try it. Act like a high-performing senior engineer. Be concise, direct, and execution-focused. Prefer simple, maintainable, production-friendly solutions. Write low-complexity code that is easy to read, debug, and modify. Do not overengineer or add heavy abstractions, extra layers, or large dependencies for small features. Keep APIs small, behavior explicit, and naming clear. Avoid cleverness unless it clearly improves the result.

Nomadic Ambience channel is hours of stunning wallpapers packed into videos :| (but advise watching in Incognito because hours of watch time on background get YouTube recommendation algorithms overexcited)

Market Overview: 🔹 Crypto mcap down 4.26% to $2.47T. BTC -4.52%, ETH -13.57%. 🔹 Long liquidations hit $654M on Thursday, nearly double the usual. 🔹 Funding rates rising across majors despite the drawdown. 🔹 Strategy buys zero BTC this week, repurchases $1.5B in 2029 convertible notes instead. 🔹 MasterCard secures NY BitLicense for stablecoin and digital payment infrastructure. 🔹 Grayscale delays its IPO to at least Q4 2026, citing market conditions. 🔹 S&P +2.06%, Nasdaq +3.68% as equities soared while crypto failed to find a bid. 2/6

bitcoin:native shares a very classic long-term macro on-chain indicator for Bitcoin: STH-RP to TMMP Ratio The ratio of the realized price to the real market average price for short-term holders This indicator clearly reflects the interplay between short-term market speculation and the fair value of the overall market. Current core data: -BTC current price and short-term costs: Currently, both values ​​are around 77.4K. This means that short-term investors who entered the market in recent months, The overall situation is at the break-even point. -Ratio trend: The current ratio is 0.8998, and the 7-day and 30-day moving averages are showing a fluctuating downward trend. On-chain data is clear. Short-term holders' cost basis is converging towards the true market average. The market as a whole is in a phase of deflating the bubble and clearing out speculative capital. Historically, when this ratio spikes, it usually corresponds to a period of market overheating. When this ratio falls below the 0.75 red line (the historical lows of 2015, 2018, and 2022), it indicates the establishment of an absolute bear market bottom. Currently, this ratio is at a relatively neutral to low level of around 0.9. And the trend is still downward. This indicates that the market's blind optimism has been effectively suppressed. The chips are undergoing a thorough turnover. At the break-even point where short-term holders find it unprofitable and even begin to feel anxious. It is often a crucial window for accumulating strength and choosing a direction. Be patient and watch for further crossovers of the cost line. #Onchaindata# #welinkBTC# bitcoin:native

Only thing to look at with $SIVE earnings is forward growth. Nobody cares about pre-development contract earnings from 2025 or last quarter, especially for qualification cycle optical players. Having 77% growth of opportunity pipelines (revenue volume ramp projections), to $799m In a quarter is absolutely incredible growth. And, I’d expect to see that continue compounding. “The company continues to anticipate several volume production starts within AI data centers” (photonics/lasers). Is also very positive and validates the thesis about volume ramp for photonics. Now next thing to look at is earnings call transcript, once they’re indexed, which is the most important signal of what’s to come. Overall, very positive.

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