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Introducing 𝕏 Leads, now live on Inbox pull profiles from any list, tweet engagement, likes, followers, following tag, set status, add custom columns filter, search, sort all from one view

作为前VC投资人，怎么看待现在CT上“VC已死”的论调？ 付费问题，我认真回答一下，本来对于这个论调我也有不少想法 先说结论 - 1. 部分VC已死是不可否认的事实 2. 整体上VC不会死，会一直活下去，推动这个行业继续向前 3. VC其实与项目，人才一样，进入一个“出清”与“大浪淘沙”的阶段，有点类似2000年互联网泡沫那会。这是上一轮疯牛的“债”，花个几年还清之后，会进入新一轮健康的成长阶段，但门槛要比之前高很多 接下来把每条展开说一下 1. 部分VC已死 - 亚洲VC应该是这一轮最惨的，从今年开始基本上头部几个关停的关停，解散的解散，剩下几个几个月可能都见不到一次出手，专注于当前Portfolio的退出，募集新一期的资金也比较困难 欧美二三线上半年还是相对OK的，跟他们的LP结构与资金体量有关，但下半年尤其近一两个月也明显出现亚洲VC的一些势头，出手频率不断降低，有些也干脆不投了，或者转型纯Liquid Fund。开始有投资经理/合伙人在TG上跟我说“太难了,不好退”。1011大惨案对山寨流动性的影响是致命的，现在开始传导到VC的信心这边 欧美一线那几家貌似影响不大，至少表面上看起来是这样的 其实VC这一轮的“熊市”是2022年Luna暴雷之后的“延迟效应”，当时二级市场熊了，但一级市场无论是项目估值还是VC募到的资金量其实没受多大影响，还有很多新VC是在Luna暴雷之后成立的（比如ABCDE）。当时的思路也没什么问题，Defi Summer几个明星项目MakerDAO，Uniswap之类都是18-19年熊市Build出来的，18-19那一波的VC也在21年的疯牛赚的盆满钵满，熊市做VC，投到好项目，牛市来了就爽了！ 但理想很丰满，现实很骨感，原因有三 一是21年那波叙事叠加放水太疯狂了，18-19的VC其实投到好项目和烂项目差距不大，当时鸡犬升天，任何项目都是几十倍甚至百倍。这也让22-23年一级市场的新项目估值和融资额即便在熊市，也因为锚定效应依旧维持一个相对的高位，没有收到二级市场太大影响，这就是我上面说的一级市场熊市的“延迟效应” 二是四年周期被打破了，25年根本没有出现所谓的“山寨季”，这里面有宏观的原因，有山寨过多，流动性不足的原因，有大家对叙事逐渐祛魅，不再为PPT和VC背书买单的原因，有AI爆发，美股“真价值投资”对币圈资金虹吸效应的原因……Anyway，之前的Pattern不再重复,想要复刻之前19年投到好项目，21年百倍退出的梦想是不可能了 三是即便四年周期重复，VC这一轮的条款跟上一轮也完全不通，我们有些23年初投的Portfolio，2，3年过去了还没发币，即便TGE，还得锁一年，再释放个两三年，一个23年投的项目，可能28-29年才能拿到最后一批代币，直接穿越一轮半周期。在币圈，有几个项目能做到穿越周期还活的很好的？凤毛麟角 2. VC整体不会死 - 这个其实没什么好担心的，行业但凡死不了，VC也就死不了。不然新的idea，新的技术，新的方向，谁来给资源去实现？总不能说完全依靠ICO或者KOL轮吧？ ICO更多是为了带部分散户和社区上车+造势，KOL轮主要负责传播，这些都是项目中后期发生的事情。在最早期就一两个Founder+PPT的阶段，只有VC才能真的看懂且真的给钱。我在ABCDE两年多聊了1000多个项目，最终只投了40个。这精挑细选的40个估计还得死掉二三十个。大家能在市场上看到的很多你们觉得“垃圾”的项目，已经是筛过好多遍相对“精品”的了，不然这1000多号项目都开ICO，都开KOL轮，散户甚至包括KOL们看得过来分辨的过来么？ 你就想想从上一轮到这一轮的现象级项目，除了Hyperliquid这种极个别案例，哪个背后是没有VC的？无论是Uniswap，AAVE，还是Solana，Opensea，还是PolyMarket，Ethena……情绪上再怎么Anti-VC，这和行业还是得靠Founder+VC合力往前推 前几天我聊了一个预测市场项目，跟市面上大多数Polymarket/Kalshi的Copycat完全不同，极其差异化。这两天推给了一些VC和KOL，大家反馈都是很有意思，要约着聊聊。你看，好项目不会死，好VC也同样 3. VC，项目，人才的门槛会提高，趋向Web2 - VC - 口碑，资金，专业程度明显进入强者恒强的阶段。 VC的口碑和品牌最重要的其实不是看在散户那里你有多出名，而是看Developer，或者说Founder们愿不愿意拿你的钱，为什么选择拿你的钱而不是拿另一家VC的钱，这才是VC的真正护城河。这一轮下来VC明显跟CEX类似，从之前的金字塔结构往图钉结构上转 项目 - 我们从上上轮的看叙事和白皮书（甚至不看白皮书，比如17年那会李笑来一个Idea融资上亿），过渡到上一轮的看TVL，VC背书，叙事，Trasaction……过渡到这一轮的看真实用户数，看协议收入……感觉总算是逐步靠近了美股那个方向。 Hyperliquid的Jeff曾经在一次访谈里说过，币圈绝大多数项目唯一的商业模式就是卖币，因为TGE的时候啥都没有，就一个主网，没有生态，没有用户，没有收入……于是只能卖币。试想一下美股一家公司上市的时候只有一个公司主体和一堆员工，也许还有厂房和车间啥的，但没有客户，没有收入，这尼玛能让你上了纳斯达克才怪！为啥我们Web3这边就能直接TGE或者Listing？！ 这一轮Polymarket和Hyperliquid打了一个最好的样，一个先花几年做到大量真实用户和收入，甚至撑起一个新的赛道，然后再考虑发币。一个上来的确拿代币空投预期做激励吸引了早期用户，但人家产品无敌，发币了大家也接着用，项目自身是现金奶牛，且收入的99%都拿来回购代币。什么时候项目有了非Farmer的真实用户+真实收入，再谈TGE，再谈Listing，我们圈就算真的走向正轨了 人才 - 我一直对Web3有信心的很大一个原因，是因为这个行业聚集了世界上最聪明的一帮人。之前我就有写过，我聊过的这1000多个项目，有接近一半的比例Founder与核心团队都是藤校毕业。国内founder则是几乎清一色的清北，偶见浙大交大厦大几个985。 当然不是唯学历论，我自己也不是什么名校出身。但不可否认的是从统计学角度，这么多高智商的人才扎堆聚在这里，哪怕是因为财富效应，也肯定能折腾出一些有用/好玩的东西 所以之前我说虽然市场熊了，但这一轮创业方向其实挺清晰的，稳定币，Perp，万物上链，预测市场，Agent Economy都是有着确定PMF的方向，好的Founder+好的VC一定可以做出真的好东西来，Polymarket和Hyperliquid打了最好的样，明后年相信会看到更多的明星产品出现 而对于普通人来说，Web3依旧是你从nobody变成somebody的最有希望之地 - 当然，这个最有希望是与卷到不能再卷的Web2那边炼狱难度相比。跟上上轮或者上一轮周期来讲，这个难度已经从Easy变成Hard了。记得前两天看一个Web3 VC合伙人的tweet，说招一个初级的实习生，几天下来收到500多份简历，很多都是名校毕业，吓得他把招聘广告直接关了。 所以最终还是那句话 - 悲观者永远正确，乐观者永远前行

Seeding my Bear ʕ•ᴥ•ʔ blog with more random posts, e.g. here's something I had on backlog for a while: # The append-and-review note An approach to note taking that I stumbled on and has worked for me quite well for many years. I find that it strikes a good balance of being super simple and easy to use but it also captures the majority of day-to-day note taking use cases. Data structure. I maintain one single text note in the Apple Notes app just called "notes". Maintaining more than one note and managing and sorting them into folders and recursive substructures costs way too much cognitive bloat. A single note means CTRL+F is simple and trivial. Apple does a good job of optional offline editing, syncing between devices, and backup. Append. Any time any idea or any todo or anything else comes to mind, I append it to the note on top, simply as text. Either when I'm on my computer when working, or my iPhone when on the go. I don't find that tagging these notes with any other structured metadata (dates, links, concepts, tags) is that useful and I don't do it by default. The only exception is that I use tags like "watch:", "listen:", or "read:", so they are easy to CTRL+F for when I'm looking for something to watch late at night, listen to during a run/walk, or read during a flight, etc. Review. As things get added to the top, everything else starts to sink towards the bottom, almost as if under gravity. Every now and then, I fish through the notes by scrolling downwards and skimming. If I find anything that deserves to not leave my attention, I rescue it towards the top by simply copy pasting. Sometimes I merge, process, group or modify notes when they seem related. I delete a note only rarely. Notes that repeatedly don't deserve attention will naturally continue to sink. They are never lost, they just don't deserve the top of mind. Example usage: - Totally random idea springs to mind but I'm on the go and can't think about it, so I add it to the note, to get back around to later. - Someone at a party mentions a movie I should watch. - I see a glowing review of a book while doom scrolling through X. - I sit down in the morning and write a small TODO list for what I'd like to achieve that day. - I just need some writing surface for something I'm thinking about. - I was going to post a tweet but I think it needs a bit more thought. Copy paste into notes to think through a bit more later. - I find an interesting quote and I want to be reminded of it now and then. - My future self should really think about this thing more. - I'm reading a paper and I want to note some interesting numbers down. - I'm working on something random and I just need a temporary surface to CTRL+C and CTRL+V a few things around. - I keep forgetting that shell command that lists all Python files recursively so now I keep it in the note. - I'm running a hyperparameter sweep of my neural network and I record the commands I ran and the eventual outcome of the experiment. - I feel stressed that there are too many things on my mind and I worry that I'll lose them, so I just sit down and quickly dump them into a bullet point list. - I realize while I'm re-ordering some of my notes that I've actually thought about the same thing a lot but from different perspectives. I process it a bit more, merge some of the notes into one. I feel additional insight. When I note something down, I feel that I can immediately move on, wipe my working memory, and focus fully on something else at that time. I have confidence that I'll be able to revisit that idea later during review and process it when I have more time. My note has grown quite giant over the last few years. It feels nice to scroll through some of the old things/thoughts that occupied me a long time ago. Sometimes ideas don't stand the repeated scrutiny of a review and they just sink deeper down. Sometimes I'm surprised that I've thought about something for so long. And sometimes an idea from a while ago is suddenly relevant in a new light. One text note ftw.

OpenCLI 一键打通 Agent 的 Twitter 世界！🚀 发推、回复、引用转推、监控通知、关键词触发自动回 DM、把整条 thread 抓下来总结、批量整理 list、定期备份某个人的所有图和视频——你想到的客户端操作，Agent 都能替你跑。 不需要 X API key。不需要等审批。不用 OAuth 折腾半天。 全部复用浏览器登录态——你能在网页上做的事，Agent 都能做。 OpenCLI 的 Twitter 适配器膨胀到 36 个命令，几乎打穿整个客户端： 读：timeline / search / thread / tweets / likes / followers / following / bookmarks / notifications / trending / article / download 写：post / reply / quote / retweet / like / bookmark / follow / block / hide-reply / delete DM：reply-dm / accept 关键词自动放行 List：lists / list-tweets / list-add / list-remove 以前 Agent 看 Twitter 只能爬时间线 现在 search → thread 抓完整讨论 → 总结 → quote / reply 发出去，一条流水线串到底 Twitter 是 Agent 的第一个完整生活场景。

A director who doesn't come up to the builder's heels makes a four-hour film about him. Yesterday in Venice, Alex Gibney's nearly four-hour documentary "Musk" had its world premiere. It is a classic case of someone who has spent a career telling other people's stories taking on a man who actually builds those stories with rockets, cars, satellites, and infrastructure, not slides. Alex Gibney is an acclaimed documentarian. An Oscar for Taxi to the Dark Side, Emmys for Going Clear on Scientology, high-profile films on Enron, Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos. His specialty is exposing corporations, cults, and frauds. He does it skillfully and with a thesis. The problem starts when he applies the same method to someone who is not selling an illusion, but hardware that either flies or blows up in front of the entire world. Gibney's fuel is controversy. Elon's fuel is the pursuit of truth hard, engineering truth, the kind that either works on the test stand or it doesn't. It would have been enough to make a film based on facts. Instead we got another rut that fits the slogans of provocation: megalomaniac, confidence man, threat to democracy, an AI avatar reciting old quotes, ex-wives, his father, a former partner. Musk said in 2023 it would be a hit piece. After the premiere, a large share of reviewers effectively agreed with him. I don't know about you, but four hours of falsified formulas would bore me. Instead I watch how much Elon has already done. His energy is extraordinary. Tesla changed the car industry. SpaceX brings rockets back. Starlink works. Starship stands on the pad and prepares for the next flight. This is not a PowerPoint. It is steel, fuel, engines, and people who cannot hide failure in the edit suite. A weak documentary like this is a crumb on the shoulder of his jacket. Now it depends on us when and how quickly that blown-off crumb a utopian attention vampire is simply starved of attention. You could list the names of people who tried to take Elon's energy. Energy is the most precious thing we have. Anyone who steals it with slogans, gossip, and a four-hour indictment that excludes the main subject is sowing under his own feet. Gibney: you reap what you sow. If you have a shred of shame, look at the list of Elon's accomplishments. Look at what kind of person he is for the world and what he does around himself so that things get better cars that drive, internet from orbit, rockets that return, attempts at a brain-computer interface, AI that is supposed to be more than another chatbot. You can dislike his tweets, his political alliances. You cannot honestly erase the scale of what was physically built. A good documentarian should stand, at least for a moment, in the shoes of the person he is portraying. Gibney did not just fail to do that. He took a measure cut for Enron and Holmes and held it up to a man who lands rockets. He left Elon's shoes in the edit suite. Elon walked on barefoot and kept building. One man tells stories about the world from an editing chair. The other moves that world. A four-hour film will not change that. At most it will confirm what people who already disliked Musk already believed. Everyone else can blow the crumb off the jacket and keep going. History does not judge a man by the length of a film. It judges him by what is still in the air when the camera has stopped running. Controversy feeds on attention. Building feeds on repetition. One vanishes when you look away. The other keeps flying. You can cut a man together in four hours. You cannot cut a landing together. A documentary can be switched off. The work cannot.

50 Sitios Web de los que No Podrás Salir Durante Horas Una Vez que Entres 1.) ' — Observar el mundo con imágenes satelitales en vivo 2.) ' — Ver todos los aviones en el cielo en este momento 3.) ' — Academia de IA para todas las edades 4.) ' — Mapa en vivo de vientos y tormentas 5.) ' — Observar en tiempo real los rayos que caen en el mundo 6.) ' — Lista en vivo de los últimos terremotos 7.) ' — Cables submarinos que transportan internet 8.) ' — Observar la deforestación de los bosques desde satélite 9.) ' — Estadísticas del mundo actualizadas segundo a segundo 10.) ' — Número de tweets y búsquedas en este momento 11.) ' — Comparar los tamaños reales de los países 12.) ' — Mapas de hace siglos 13.) ' — Archivo de 150 mil mapas históricos 14.) ' — Mapa mundial dibujado por voluntarios 15.) ' — Mirar el mundo desde la ventana de alguien al azar 16.) ' — Paseos virtuales por ciudades 17.) ' — Teletransportarse a un punto aleatorio del mundo 18.) ' — Catálogo de los lugares más extraños del mundo 19.) ' — Experiencias interactivas de conocimiento 20.) ' — Viaje a escala desde el átomo hasta el universo 21.) ' — Explorar el sistema solar en 3D 22.) ' — Mapa real del cielo en el navegador 23.) ' — La foto astronómica del día de la NASA 24.) ' — Todo el archivo visual de la NASA gratis 25.) ' — Artículos visuales narrados con datos 26.) ' — El estado del mundo con datos reales 27.) ' — Lo que creemos saber erróneamente sobre el mundo 28.) ' — Visualizar datos complejos 29.) ' — Datos abiertos del Banco Mundial 30.) ' — Base de datos oficial de estadísticas de Turquía 31.) ' — Archivo de millones de libros, películas y software 32.) ' — 70 mil libros gratuitos con derechos de autor expirados 33.) ' — Registro de todos los libros del mundo 34.) ' — Archivo digital de la Biblioteca del Congreso de EE.UU. 35.) ' — Archivo del patrimonio cultural de Europa 36.) ' — Colección de biblioteca digital de América 37.) ' — Recorrer museos desde casa 38.) ' — Descargar obras de arte en alta resolución 39.) ' — Archivo de 250 mil obras de arte 40.) ' — Tesoros visuales olvidados de la historia 41.) ' — Archivo gratuito de cultura y educación 42.) ' — Colección abierta del Museo Metropolitano 43.) ' — Árbol genealógico de los géneros musicales 44.) ' — Seleccionar país y década para escuchar esa era 45.) ' — Convertir ediciones de Wikipedia a audio 46.) ' — Pozo de conocimiento aleatorio 47.) ' — Tiempo, amaneceres y eventos celestes 48.) ' — Flujo actual de noticias científicas 49.) ' — Preimpresiones gratuitas de artículos científicos 50.) ' — Visualizar datos con código en vivo Internet no se limita a esos cinco sitios que el algoritmo pone frente a ti.

Today, my wife & I joined Donald Trump’s hit list. He has directed his Department of Justice to investigate us. They have not found a crime - they are simply trying to find one. He isn't coming after me because of mean tweets, but because I am considering running for President. He hates that I consistently call him out. He is simply the most corrupt President in American history. We have nothing to hide.  Mr. President, come after me. I am not going anywhere.  The country is watching.

The top Hermes integrations to give your agent superpowers: 1. Firecrawl Basically web search built for agents. It's better than the native Hermes web search because it gives you clean web data, so responses come back faster and uses fewer tokens. I keep this on by default. 2. Browserbase Gives Hermes browser access for actually interacting with sites. Logging in, clicking buttons, booking stuff, anything that needs a real browser session. Hermes will automatically pick between Firecrawl and Browserbase depending on what the task needs, so you just plug both in. 3. Google Workspace Gmail, Calendar, Drive, Docs, and Sheets in one connector. If Hermes can't read your inbox, see your calendar, or write to your docs, it can't really work for you. Plug this in first. 4. Reddit The best signal you'll find on what people actually think about any product, niche, or problem (bc its real opinions from real users) Amazing for market research. 5. YouTube transcripts Pulls captions from any video. Long podcasts, tutorials, interviews etc become searchable notes in seconds. Probably the highest-leverage research integration nobody plugs in. 6. Discord I host my business in Discord, so this one's huge for me. I plug Hermes into different channels and have it run specific workflows in each. Example: I have a dedicated customer support channel where Hermes scans my email every morning for support tickets and drops them in organized. 7. GitHub Code, issues, PRs. Turns Hermes into an actual engineering teammate. Non-negotiable if you write code. 8. Stripe Payments, customers, failed charges, refunds. You can just ask "why did this customer churn" and get a real answer. Also can't wait for this...Stripe is releasing agentic payments, so soon Hermes will be able to actually book stuff with your card. 9. Bland (or Twilio) Gives Hermes a voice so it can place real phone calls (like booking reservations etc). I love listening to the recordings haha 10. Apify Pre-built scrapers for X, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google Maps, etc. The way to get X data without paying $5k/mo for the official API. 11. Readwise Every highlight you've ever saved from books, articles, tweets, and podcasts, all queryable. Solves the "dead knowledge" problem. 12. Granola (or Fathom) Searchable transcripts of every meeting you've had. Hermes can answer "what did that client say about pricing last month" instantly. 13. Obsidian For Karpathy LLM wiki second-brain maxxing. If I had to set up only 5, I'd do Firecrawl, Browserbase, Google Workspace, GitHub, and Obsidian. Covers ~80% of what most people need. I use Composio to add these in one click, makes setup basically zero effort instead of messing w technical stuff. Anything I'm missing?? What's in your stack?

Spring and Spring mini 5.13.1 are now on the App Store, with support for showing expanded long tweets, polls, and pictures in 4K resolution. Plus, the Home and List timelines can now auto-refresh, restore reading position, and filter tweets by categories.