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のれんから出てくるところも元気いっぱいなところもアニスみたいでかわいい NIKKE/アニス:スター シスルさん@Sithle011 Be My Star #NIKKE# #C108_cos# #Ｃ１０８コスプレ#

Let me lay out the unpleasant arithmetic of the replacement rate, and why a modern society finds it so hard to reach. A population of 100 women in an advanced economy needs 210 children to replace itself. Why? Absent sex-selective practices, roughly 105 boys are born for every 100 girls. Evolution overshoots male births because boys are more prone to early death from accidents and disease. Therefore, of 210 children, about 108 are boys and 102 are girls. Not all girls reach the midpoint of their fertile age: accidents, suicide, homicide, and illness take some. In an advanced economy, about 98% of them survive, leaving 100 women to replace the original 100. Now consider the distribution of children per woman. Imagine 15 women have no children. Five do so by choice, for various reasons (professional, affective, religious). Ten face unfixable fertility problems, theirs or their partner’s. The 10% figure is conservative: the medical literature points to around 13%, and that does not even count male fertility problems. Of the remaining 85, 10 have one child, 60 have two, 10 have three, and 5 have four. I am stopping at four to keep the post concise; very few women in younger cohorts have five or more children, but I could adapt the example to account for them. Hence, the 100 women in this population have 180 children, for a completed fertility rate of 1.8. Interestingly, this is roughly the rate we saw in many advanced economies until the early 1990s, and in the U.S. until around 2008. But we are still 30 children short of replacement! Voluntary childlessness is only 5%. Three-quarters of women have two or more children. Look around: most of your friends will have two, plenty will have three or four. And yet, we are well below replacement. You would not look at this population and call it selfish (is having two kids hedonistic?) or accuse it of losing family values (only 5% of women are choosing voluntarily not to have children). The point is simpler. To reach 210 births, you need a substantial share of women to have three or more children. Two as the “normal” pattern will not get you there. And modern society makes three or more a costly proposition for most families. Of course, current fertility rates in most advanced economies are well below 1.8. But my point is that, under present social arrangements, we should not expect 2.1, even if (to humor last weekend’s debate) we banned smartphones and TikTok. We need many, many more families with three or four children. More pointedly, there is no self-regulating mechanism that pushes a society back to 2.1. The market-clearing analogy many economists use is flawed; scarcity feedback does not work the same way. (Another post on this another day.) And, as I often read, the claim that “nature” somehow regulates current overpopulation is just childish mumbo jumbo. So yes, the arithmetic of replacement rate is unpleasant.

コミックマーケット108は、2026年8月15日～16日に東京ビッグサイトで開催します。 Comic Market 108 (C108) is scheduled for August 15-16, 2026 at the Tokyo Big Sight. #C108# #C108_cos#

コミックマーケット108 (C108) は、2026年8月15日～16日に東京ビッグサイトで開催します。 Comic Market 108 (C108) is scheduled for August 15-16, 2026 at the Tokyo Big Sight. #C108# #C108# _cos #楽しい夏を過ごそう#

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#星期一的貧乳# #Mondays_Flat# 這禮拜是船長的側乳❤️❤️ 最近活動很多!!來看看那裡可以找到銀璃吧♡ 10/8♡Cospie 10/15♡花博PF 11/12.13♡AGA 11/19.20♡高雄駁二 #ホロライブ# #マリンのお宝#

今日拍攝小Nine的生誕祭寫真 初販會在10/8（六）Cospie唷！！ 小Nine的攤位是45 最近會慢慢釋出寫真和cospie的限定活動 寶寶記得關注小Nine❤️❤️

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Cospie大尺場 參展確認！ 這禮拜六（10/8）常駐第33號攤位 會在親愛的@ miachuchu0811 的攤上當顧攤小精靈✨✨ 當天的衣服如圖： 有沒有很期待見到Kumori呀🫶🏻