The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)

US corporate revenues have never been this concentrated: The top 1% of US firms by sales now account for a record ~82% of all corporate revenues. This percentage has risen +22 points since the 1950s. The top 20 firms alone account for a record 50% of all US corporate sales. Concentration has increased +10 percentage points since the 1980s. At the same time, corporate profits after tax as a proportion of US GDP stand at 12%, near an all-time high and more than double 2001 levels. This means a shrinking number of companies are capturing a growing proportion of both revenues and profits across the entire economy. The market and economy have never been more concentrated.

The structure of the market is experiencing a historic shift: The number of US-listed ETFs is up to ~4,900, an all-time high, up +95% since 2020. Over the same period, the number of US publicly listed companies has declined -1,000, or -20%, to ~3,900, the lowest this century. As a result, there are now ~1,000 more ETFs than stocks to trade in the US market, the widest gap in history. Meanwhile, US ETF assets under management (AUM) jumped +10% in April, to a record $14.9 trillion. Over the last 4 years, US ETF AUM has surged +140% and now accounts for ~69% of the global ETF market. ETFs are reshaping the foundation of financial markets.

BREAKING: Cumulative crypto card payment volumes have reached a record $7.8 billion, with monthly volumes now up +230% since May 2025. Crypto card adoption has rapidly accelerated in 2026 due to growing access to stablecoins as a payment rail through crypto cards. In other words, more people can now spend stablecoins like fiat by using crypto cards, further driving adoption. The growth comes amid the launch of Jupiter Global, which has seen a +648% surge in spending volume over the last 2 months. Visa is capturing ~90% of onchain card transactions via crypto-native infrastructure partnerships like Jupiter Global. Crypto cards are the ultimate use case for stablecoins.

China is seeing massive capital outflows: An estimated $1 trillion in capital flowed out of China in 2025, the largest annual outflow since records began in 2006. Capital outflows have more than DOUBLED since 2021. This comes as Chinese investors have moved funds into overseas equities through offshore brokers, particularly into the US and Hong Kong markets. In response, China imposed restrictions on cross-border stock trading on May 22nd, ordering all illegal accounts to be liquidated within 2 years. Furthermore, the country fined three offshore online brokers, Hong Kong-based Futu, Singapore-based Tiger Brokers and Longbridge Securities, a combined $330 million for offering Chinese investors access to foreign stock markets without regulatory approval. China is tightening capital controls as outflows intensify.

NVIDIA, $NVDA, EARNINGS SUMMARY: 1. Record quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, above expectations 2. Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.87, above expectations 3. Q2 revenue guidance of $89.2 billion to $92.8 billion, above expectations 4. New $80 billion share buyback authorization 5. Increase in dividend from $0.01/share to $0.25/share 6. Total revenue growth of +1,035% over the last 3 years Once again, Nvidia has crushed just about every expectation possible. The AI Revolution is on fire.

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Pre-IPO markets are predicting a historic IPO season. The combined valuation of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI is now expected to hit $4.3 TRILLION by June 30th, per Polymarket. Private companies have never been more important than they are now.

American consumers are now facing 7%+ mortgage rates, 4%+ inflation, and a 30% loss in the purchasing power of the US Dollar since 2020. The second half of 2026 is going to be interesting to say the least.

Bond markets are flashing red. Today, the US 30Y Note Yield officially hit its highest level since July 2007, at 5.19%. This will soon become Americans’ biggest problem, yet the vast majority do not even know it is happening. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

BREAKING: The odds of the Fed HIKING interest rates in 2026 surge to a new high of 37%. US treasury yields are now up to 2007 levels, inflation is heading above 4%, and rate cuts are no longer in discussion. Talk about a turn of events.

Risk appetite in South Korea is exploding: Margin loans outstanding on Korean stocks are up to a record $24.3 billion. Since the start of 2025, margin debt has surged +140% and is up +32% since the beginning of this year alone. To put this into perspective, the value of leveraged bets on Korean stocks was ~$5.0 billion in 2020. This also likely understates the real scale, given that many loans taken out to buy stocks are labeled under other categories. Meanwhile, domestic investors have poured ~$25.3 billion into South Korean shares year-to-date. Retail investors in South Korea are aggressively rushing into stocks.

BREAKING: The White House announces multiple US-China trade deals and developments following President Trump's meeting with China's President Xi. Details include: 1. China will address US concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals 2. China has approved an initial purchase of 200 American-made Boeing aircraft for Chinese airlines 3. China will purchase at least $17 billion per year of US agricultural products in 2026, 2027, and 2028 4. China has restored market access for US beef by renewing expired listings of more than 400 US beef facilities and adding new listings 5. China has resumed imports of poultry from US states determined by the USDA to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza President Xi will be visiting the White House this fall.

BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +34% YoY in March, to a record $50 billion annualized rate. Spending on data centers is up +437% since the beginning of 2021, when the annualized rate stood at ~$9 billion. This is also up +688% since the start of 2018, when the annualized rate was just ~$6 billion. Meanwhile, office building construction spending fell -9% YoY in March, to $46 billion, the lowest since 2015. This means that spending on data centers now exceeds office building construction by $4 billion, or +9%. To put this into perspective, office construction spending exceeded data center spending by $65 billion, or +650%, in 2020. AI is fundamentally transforming the US economy.

Crypto card spending is the next big trend: Crypto card spending volume has surged +500% since September 2024, now running at $600 million per month. As a result, stablecoin-linked payment cards are now one of the fastest growing businesses on the blockchain, with 90% of transactions captured by Visa, $V. Visa's strategy has centered around partnering with emerging infrastructure providers which reduces reliance on traditional sponsor banks. The growth comes amid the launch of Jupiter Global which returns 4-10% cash back to crypto cards and has seen +660% MoM volume growth in April. Crypto card adoption is growing.

BREAKING: Hedge fund repo borrowing is now up to a record $3.4 trillion. Repo borrowing is a form of short-term financing where hedge funds pledge Treasuries as collateral to borrow cash, allowing them to make levered bets. Repo borrowing has more than TRIPLED since 2019. Furthermore, prime brokerage borrowing is up to $3.2 trillion, doubling since 2022. Prime brokerage borrowing works similarly, but involves direct lending from large banks, providing hedge funds with additional capital to increase their market exposure. Meanwhile, hedge funds now own a record ~8% of the $31 trillion US Treasury market, up from just 3% in 2021, according to Apollo. A sudden rise in borrowing costs or volatility could force hedge funds to unwind these positions rapidly, causing heavy Treasury selling and risking broader bond market stress, similar to 2020. Hedge funds are now a key force in the US Treasury market.