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不管是遇到“美元贬值（7.3跌到6.7）”还是“美元升值（6.7涨到7.3）”⬇️ 手握 100 万人民币做全球配置的三种真实结局 第一种：把“换汇”当成投资终点，只存美元定期不买资产 🔥 在 7.3 高位换了美元却不敢买美股，让钱在账户里睡大觉。一旦遇到美元汇率回调到 6.7，吃满 8% 以上的汇率跌幅，那点定期利息连汇损都填不上，100 万换回人民币只剩 90 万出头。 第二种：被短期汇率波动吓破胆，天天盯着汇率猜顶底 美元跌到 6.7 时怕继续跌不敢换；等美元涨到 7.2 时又嫌贵不敢买。结果五年过去了，在汇率的小水坑里来回折腾，完美踏空标普 500 和纳指翻倍的主升浪。 第三种：无视短期汇率涨跌，换完美元立刻锁仓 60% VOO + 30% QQQM + 10% SGOV - 当美元贬值（人民币升值，如 7.3 跌到 6.7）：虽然汇率账面少了 8.4%，但期间 VOO 涨了 30%+、QQQM 涨得更猛，折算回人民币依然净赚 20 多万；而且这时候拿人民币换汇，等于打 9 折买美股筹码！ - 当美元升值（如 6.7 涨到 7.3）：你直接享受“美股资产上涨 + 美元汇率升值”的戴维斯双击，两头吃肉。 我提出思考，分析这个，就是想分享给朋友们一个观点：汇率决定的只是你上车时的门票折扣，而换完美元之后买了什么资产，才真正决定你 5 年、10 年后的财富结局。 只要你买的是年化复合增长 10%–15% 的全球顶级科技与宽基资产，区区几个点的汇率波动，在十年复利面前连浪花都算不上。

DeepSeek 官方说 deepseek-flash 能直接看图，三种传图方式，一次最多 600 张 建议收藏，用到时照着做。做完你能让 DeepSeek 读截图、看图表、描述图片。 这是 DeepSeek 官方 API 文档 Vision（视觉）一页。先说结论： 官方写明，deepseek-flash 模型可以文字加图片一起输入，用来描述图片、读截图里的字、分析图表。 先说清词。 Vision，视觉输入，意思是让模型看图。 base64，是把图片文件转成一长串文字，直接塞进请求里的编码方式。 file_id，是先把图片传到官方的 Files API（文件接口），拿回来的一个编号，之后用编号代替图片。 先把话说全： 官方支持的图片格式是 JPEG、PNG、GIF、WebP，官方说格式按文件真实内容判断，不看文件名。 官方写明，assistant（模型自己的）消息里放图片，会返回 400 错误；图片只能放在 user、system、tool 消息里。 一、三种传图方式 第一种：base64 内联。官方说最适合本地文件，把图片编码后做成 data: 开头的地址放进请求，整个请求体上限是 48 MiB。 第二种：外部图片链接。给一个公开的 http 或 https 地址，官方限制：链接最长 8192 个字符，图片最大 32 MiB，下载要在 60 秒内完成。 第三种：Files API 的 file_id。官方说同一张图要反复用，或者图太大，就先上传再用编号。这种方式图片可以到 64 MiB。 二、请求怎么写 第一步：model 写 deepseek-flash。官方说旧名字 deepseek-v4-flash-vision-exp 还能用，但已经退役，实际由最新的 Flash 模型处理。 第二步：messages 里 content 不再是一句话，而是一个列表，里面一块是 text 文字，一块是 image_url 图片。 第三步：Responses API 也能传图，图片放在 input_image 里，文字放在 input_text 里。 三、detail 清晰度开关 官方写明，image_url 可以加 detail 字段。low 会把图缩到 512×512 再看，更快更便宜；high、original、auto 目前都是保持原图。 四、费用和上限 官方说图片按尺寸换算成 token，和文字一起计费。每张图最多 1024 个 token，因为太大的图会先被缩到约 1300×1300 的像素量。 官方给的上限：每次请求最多 600 张图；单边最长 8192 像素，一次放 15 张以上时降到 4096 像素；不含 file_id 的图合计 64 MiB，含 file_id 最多 200 MiB。 五、用 Anthropic 接口也行 官方说把 base_url 写成 image 块，source 的 type 可以是 base64、url 或 file。用 file 时要加请求头 anthropic-beta: files-api-2025-04-14。 常见坑 3 条： 一、把图片放进 assistant 消息，会直接报 400。二、外链图片超过 32 MiB 或 60 秒下不完，就改用 file_id。三、一次放 15 张以上，单边别超过 4096 像素。 复制即用的提示词：请描述这张图片，列出图里所有文字，再用三句话总结它想说明什么。 收藏版：5 步速查 一、model 写 deepseek-flash。二、选 base64、链接或 file_id 传图。三、content 写成文字块加图片块。四、格式用 JPEG、PNG、GIF、WebP。五、别把图放进 assistant 消息。 S1哥 观点：官方把每张图封顶 1024 个 token，说明传图比很多人想的便宜，截图问答可以放心大量用。 一句话结论：DeepSeek 读图，认准 deepseek-flash，小图用 base64，大图或重复用 file_id。想让朋友少踩坑，复制链接发给他。 你是想让它读截图还是看图表？卡在第几步？同系列前几篇在我主页。 参考：DeepSeek 官方文档 Vision（S1哥 整理） 今天送：DeepSeek 看图请求自检清单，评论区第一条直接拿。

Open source models on top again. Deepnote tested 12 models in 50 professional situations where an agent must independently decide whether and where to speak up. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash scored 6.35 out of 10, surpassing Claude Haiku 5.5 (6.05), Gemini 4 Argon (5.60) and Grok 4.7 (4.51). GPT-6 Astra takes first place with a score of 8.97.

🚨 THIS IS WHY BITCOIN KEEPS CRASHING BELOW $67,000 If you still think Bitcoin trades like an asset whose price is determined purely by spot supply and demand, you need to read this carefully. Because that market no longer exists. What you’re watching right now is NOT normal price action. This isn’t just an AI stock sell-off. This isn’t just hotter inflation. And this definitely isn’t retail suddenly deciding to dump Bitcoin at the exact same time. Most people have no idea what is actually happening. And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is usually already done. This didn’t start today. It has been building underneath Bitcoin for YEARS. And now it’s accelerating. Here’s the truth: Bitcoin still has a hard cap of 21 MILLION coins. But Wall Street can create almost unlimited financial EXPOSURE around those coins. That distinction changes everything. Because once derivatives dominate short-term price discovery... Bitcoin stops trading purely on who wants to own the actual coins. It starts trading on: 1) LEVERAGE. 2) HEDGING. 3) MARGIN. 4) LIQUIDATIONS. 5) FORCED SELLING. And that is exactly what is happening right now. It’s the same mechanism that repeatedly drives violent moves in: → Gold → Silver → Oil → Stocks Once derivatives become large enough, spot buyers are no longer the only force setting the price. And this is the part almost nobody understands: Bitcoin’s scarcity didn’t disappear. But scarcity alone no longer controls the SCREEN PRICE. Wall Street built an entire financial layer on top of Bitcoin: → Cash-settled futures → Perpetual contracts → Options → ETFs → Broker lending → Swaps → Wrapped BTC The 21 million cap controls the COINS. It does NOT cap the amount of leveraged exposure that can be created around them. And once that leverage starts unwinding... The market doesn’t care what the long-term thesis is. It SELLS. Look at what just happened: Over $1.9 BILLION in leveraged crypto positions wiped out in 24 hours. More than $1.1 BILLION liquidated in Bitcoin alone. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen roughly $1.9 BILLION in outflows this month. Once leveraged selling overwhelms real buyers, price stops responding only to long-term demand. It starts responding to positions. Hedging. Margin calls. And cascading liquidations. Wall Street does not need to own millions of physical Bitcoin to push the market around. It only needs enough derivatives exposure and enough leverage sitting in the wrong place. The playbook is brutally simple: 1st: Build enormous leveraged exposur 2nd: Push price through obvious liquidity 3rd: Trigger stops and liquidations 4th: Forced selling pushes price even lower 5th: Buy back into the panic 6th: Repeat THIS is why Bitcoin can lose thousands of dollars while the number of coins on-chain barely changes. The coins didn’t suddenly disappear. The PRICE DISCOVERY mechanism changed. That’s what people are missing. Bitcoin is still scarce. But the financial claims built around Bitcoin are NOT. And when leverage controls the marginal trade... 21 million coins can behave like a market with FAR more supply than 21 million coins. That’s not the Bitcoin market retail thinks it is trading. That’s a WALL STREET PRICING SYSTEM built on top of Bitcoin. You can choose to ignore it. But don’t pretend nobody warned you. Bitcoin is now trading around $66,600, its lowest level since August and roughly 48% below the $126,200 high. If $65k breaks, the next level I’m watching is $62k. Reminder: I called the Bitcoin top at $126,000 and told you to start buying again around $60,000. The next call will matter even more. When I EXIT the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Saylor @saylor 和 Tom Lee @fundstrat 真是币圈的卧龙凤雏。 Bitmine @BitMNR 持仓 607 万枚 $ETH，均价 $3,300 ，按现价 $1,900 算浮亏接近 $90亿； Strategy @Strategy 持仓 85 万枚 $BTC，均价 $75,456，上个月最多浮盈 $70多亿，现在 6.7 万又掉回水下，浮亏 $70亿 左右。 说实话，我相信买 $BTC 的微策略迟早能盈利，小胖子 Tom 的 BMNR 就难说了； 毕竟一个涨 12% 就回本，一个得涨 75% 以上。🫣

这波60000左右底部抄的仓位一点没出，73000附近还加了不少币股的仓位，昨天把加的仓位都出掉了，之前抄的现货还继续拿着。65000-66000附近有个支撑位，但这种大级别的破前高出了higher high又跌下去形成fakeout，一般都会破前低，美股和黄金都已经破了7月的前低了，想想crypto也没有理由比其他资产还要硬。 现在复盘这波犯的错误挺愚蠢的，加密这么多利空，美股那边也崩了，短期没有涨的动能，但结果还是被btc看起来很硬的假象给迷惑了，该至少跑一半避险的。 也许这一两个月就能看到crypto这轮周期的最后一跌了，不知道会到哪里，盯插针和放量吧，这时候不太建议接飞刀或者上杠杆，活下来大于一切。中长期观点没有变化，btc对比美股和对比黄金都是在绝对底部，这波跌完资金会轮转到crypto的，未来俩月仍是最适合建仓现货去做周期交易的时候（下图btc vs qqq，btc vs 黄金）

玩bitget和Gate，交易之前先领先60%、80%手续费返现 同样的交易，同样的行情，为什么别人交易成本更低？ 很多人每天频繁交易，却忽略了一个细节，手续费也是长期交易成本 如果你准备使用bitget和Gate，建议先通过我的专属链接注册，按照平台规则可享受60%、80%手续费返佣 不需要额外操作，注册时绑定邀请码，符合条件即可自动享受返佣 bitget返60%自动 邀请码：bmdy8 Gate返80%自动 邀请码：GATEBBNN 我的电报： 真正聪明的交易，不只是关注行情，也要懂得控制成本 我的理念是一次注册，终身服务！

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🔴 TÜM ALTCOİN SAHİPLERİ, SÖYLEDİKLERİMİ DİKKATLE DİNLEYİN! Çünkü bu noktadan itibaren, sadece bir tahmin paylaşmıyorum… KENDİ İTİBARIMI VE 9 YILLI ÇALIŞMAMIN TÜMÜNÜ RİSK ALTINA ATIYORUM! SOL'u 5 dolarda, AVAX'ı 2 dolarda, XRP'yi 0.50 dolarda ve MATIC'i 0.003 dolarda çağırdım. Üç yıl önce, 8.000 dolarlık bakiyemi 2.5 milyon dolardan fazlaya çevirdim. Gelecek üç ay, hem benim hem de piyasa için belirleyici olacak. 🔴 KASIM — ARALIK — OCAK Bitcoin → 180.000$ Ethereum → 10.000$ Altcoinlerde → 60X BAŞLANGIÇ İÇİN. Bazı coinlerde 100X, 150X, 200X+ göreceğiz. BU OCAK'TA BİTECEK… Eğer söylediklerim gerçekleşmezse, 9 yıllık emeğimi koyduğum bu işi bırakacağım ve X HESABIMI SONSuza DEK SİLECEĞİM! Bu sözleri unutma. Ekran görüntüleri al. Tarihi işaretle. Çünkü piyasa döndüğünde, herkes her zaman ne kadar haklı olduklarını söyleyecek… AMA EKRAN GÖRÜNTÜLERİ YALAN SÖYLEMEZ! Zirveyi kaçırmak istemiyorsan beni takip et. FİNALDE GÖRÜŞÜRÜZ…