兄弟们,又一套顶级 AI 量化打法出来了。
有人拿 Claude Fable 5.1 搭了套 Quant Spline Balance,专门扫 Polymarket 上的加密涨跌盘。日均能稳稳吃 1667 美元左右。
实盘数字挺夸张的。跑了 201 天,总利润 335210。平均每笔大概 60 块。忙的时候每小时能自动成交 70 多笔。BTC、ETH、SOL 的短时涨跌全覆盖。
说白了,不是在赌方向。是靠两个 AI 一块干活,一个负责定价,一个负责对冲,吃的是市场自己搞出来的价差。
定价那边用的是 GAM 非线性模型。它实时抓 BTC 行情,把偏离度、波动率、还剩多少时间、订单流偏了没,这几样丢进公式,算出涨跌该是多少概率。
公式长这样:
z = β₀ + s₁(d) + s₂(v) + s₃(τ) + s₄(OFI)
然后转成价格:
p_Up = 1 / (1 + e^(−z))
F_Up = 1 × p_Up
F_Down = 1 − F_Up
同一波 BTC 波动,时间剩得多少、波动大不大,模型给出的估值就不一样。只要它算出来的公允价比当前买价高,系统就自动进。
另一边是均值方差风控。专门管仓位,别让一边敞口太大。手里有多单的时候,它会盯着空单成本,算一个最合适的残差区间:
R* = min(Rmax, max(0, [p_Up − (1 − c_Down)] / [γ × p_Up × (1 − p_Up)]))
一旦一边偏了,马上补反向单,把风险压下来。
核心就一句话。多单成本加空单成本要是低于 1 美元,中间就有差价可以吃。机器人就反复干这件事。
账号实盘:
几笔比较猛的。535 变 2860,净赚 2325。632 变 2896,净赚 2263。685 变 2601,净赚 1916。
简单说,GAM 负责算该值多少钱,均值方差负责别让仓位失控。
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Day 685: Today I drew
@12akumaRoi a portrait! Such a pretty lion! ✨😸🧡
BREAKING: Chinese illicit actors laundering funds from the $387M Bitget exploit on behalf of the alleged DPRK attackers are openly asking for support with orders in public Discord servers and Telegram channels of services they use.
Notably, Alias 4 (below) was also seen laundering funds from the Kelp DAO $292M exploit earlier this year.
I've observed the same pattern after multiple TraderTraitor attributed exploits, and I've closely tracked these groups. I plan to share more of my data on them in coming weeks.
Currently, funds are being chain-hopped via bridges and being deposited into mixing services such as Wasabi.
Alias 1 - Cc
Discord: cc02006
Discord ID: 1351486674386948148
Txn: F08657EFAEAE7B58217CD17A22BF4779582E5D080C2E92E173BC239A5D828363
Alias 2 - jack
Discord: jack_34808
Discord ID: 1553705721768714377
Txn: 68583D313A0CCC99F2702D61D05A242A69C86CAE09ED252B65F34B677C377F69
Alias 3 - Melon
Discord: under0346
Discord ID: 1394240539108573215
Txn 1: ABE2AEF8B10057E60F8259CA2CA2CD5D71D38D254960FEEE89CB3C95A964873F
Txn 2: 7BE290865901DEB1680A6D692A11392D1FDDACA0D31C48F26DCB249F2444BD6B
Alias 4 - lolo / Marin
TG: pvpcz
TGID: 6223514198
Discord: losern
Discord ID: 1024415186527985704
Txn: 8E935C19D00F40639B78BF1FD094FE48C92118F3E586AB52DF93851080CCCE15
Alias 5 - HELP ME
Discord: helpme031897
Discord ID: 1554035533817188384
Txn: 7C58CAD760EBBED54F2CA4D2146D056910B7B6688B4F524396DC8807353C2379
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A data center where compute and memory pool dynamically. Where millions of resources operate as one machine. Where architecture is defined by the needs of the workload, not the limits of connectivity.
This vision of all-optical infrastructure points to a future with unprecedented scale, flexibility, and performance. Watch the closing moments from Marvell’s COMPUTEX 2026 keynote to see what’s possible.
Watch the full keynote:
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2025 global births by county (top 50):
1. 🇮🇳 India: 23.1M
2. 🇨🇳 China: 8.7M
3. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 7.6M
4. 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 6.9M
5. 🇨🇩 DR Congo: 4.6M
6. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 4.4M
7. 🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 4.2M
8. 🇺🇸 United States: 3.7M
9. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: 3.4M
10. 🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.5M
11. 🇪🇬 Egypt: 2.5M
12. 🇹🇿 Tanzania: 2.4M
13. 🇲🇽 Mexico: 2.0M
14. 🇵🇭 Philippines: 1.8M
15. 🇺🇬 Uganda: 1.7M
16. 🇸🇩 Sudan: 1.7M
17. 🇰🇪 Kenya: 1.5M
18. 🇦🇫 Afghanistan: 1.5M
19. 🇦🇴 Angola: 1.4M
20. 🇾🇪 Yemen: 1.4M
21. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: 1.3M
22. 🇲🇿 Mozambique: 1.3M
23. 🇷🇺 Russia: 1.2M
24. 🇮🇶 Iraq: 1.2M
25. 🇿🇦 South Africa: 1.2M
26. 🇳🇪 Niger: 1.1M
27. 🇮🇷 Iran: 1.1M
28. 🇹🇷 Turkey: 1.1M
29. 🇲🇬 Madagascar: 1.0M
30. 🇨🇮 Côte d’Ivoire: 1.0M
31. 🇲🇱 Mali: 987K
32. 🇨🇲 Cameroon: 981K
33. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: 911K
34. 🇹🇩 Chad: 907K
35. 🇬🇭 Ghana: 898K
36. 🇲🇲 Myanmar: 888K
37. 🇩🇿 Algeria: 855K
38. 🇸🇴 Somalia: 822K
39. 🇯🇵 Japan: 748K
40. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: 742K
41. 🇿🇲 Zambia: 709K
42. 🇩🇪 Germany: 708K
43. 🇨🇴 Colombia: 693K
44. 🇲🇼 Malawi: 685K
45. 🇬🇧 UK: 680K
46. 🇫🇷 France: 635K
47. 🇲🇦 Morocco: 619K
48. 🇸🇾 Syria: 601K
49. 🇹🇭 Thailand: 572K
50. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 565K
Nigeria alone had 1M more births than the entire Europe
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After holding $ETH for 5 months, this guy finally gave up and sold 1,862.3 $ETH ($3.58M) at $1,923, taking a loss of $1.42M(-28%).
He bought 1,862.3 $ETH at $2,685 in January when the price of $ETH dropped.
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Novak Djokovic makes his WWE wrestling debut wearing a mask. 😂
【#
THEFIRSTTAKE】#
ー
No.685
T.M.Revolution / HOT LIMIT
ー
白いスタジオに置かれた、一本のマイク。
ここでのルールは、ただ一つ。
一発撮りのパフォーマンスをすること。
・
@TMR15
▼Full show on YouTube
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Age of each of these countries:
USA: 250 years
Netherlands: 445 years
Sweden: 503 years
Spain: 547 years
Monaco: 729 years
Switzerland: 735 years
Thailand: 788 years
Mongolia: 820 years
Portugal: 883 years
Hungary: 1,026 years
Poland: 1,060 years
Denmark: 1,061 years
England: 1,099 years
Norway: 1,154 years
Russia: 1,164 years
France: 1,183 years
Morocco: 1,238 years
Bulgaria: 1,345 years
China: 2,246 years
Iran: 2,575 years
Japan: 2,685 years
Ethiopia: 3,000 years
Egypt: 5,125 years
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问ai如果把日本韩国美国台湾欧盟的半导体设备龙头股组合成一个etf,取10个股票,如何组合,最好跟存储芯片的扩产路径相关的设备。
设备采购顺序一般是:
前道设备(刻蚀→薄膜沉积→清洗→检测→光刻)→ 后道封装(HBM)→ 测试
因此ETF应该偏重刻蚀、沉积、清洗,而不是EDA或晶圆代工。
1. $LRCX 20%
2. 8035.T 18%
3. AMAT 15%
4. 6525.T 10%
5. 7735.T 10%
6. 8%
7. 6857.T 8%
8. 042700.KS 5%
9.ASML / 4%
10. 8036.T 2%
核心逻辑:
重仓顺序:
刻蚀 > 沉积 > 清洗 > 测试 > HBM封装 > 光刻/检测
最核心三只:
LRCX、东京电子、AMAT
最贴近HBM后道:
Advantest、Hanmi
最贴近DRAM/NAND前道扩产:
LRCX、东京电子、AMAT、Kokusai、SCREEN
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