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Since my name came up, a short note. Yes, I played the Bike game in 2023, for about an hour, and had a small piece of one player. It was over two years ago. Hank and Alan have already described what happened that night, and my recollection is roughly the same. I wasn't there for the settlement afterwards, so I won't speak to it. As for C Ye and Britney, that's between them. I wasn't involved and I'm not picking a side. If I can offer one thought: this all feels bigger from inside the poker bubble than it really is. Most people have never heard of it and never will. Settle it privately if you can, and move on. That's the whole statement. I won't be commenting on this again or answering questions about it, so please don't read my silence as agreement or disagreement with anyone. Poker isn't really where my head is these days. Life is full of more interesting things.

Researchers proved AI has deleted every reason universities exist. Harvard University ran a controlled experiment pitting a custom AI against their own top-tier classrooms. And the results are going to collapse the higher education bubble. They took 194 undergraduates and split them up. One group learned physics in one of Harvard’s best hands-on, active-learning physical classrooms. Group work. Instructor support. The premium university experience. The other group went home and learned the exact same material with an AI tutor. The AI didn't just win. It embarrassed the institution. Students using the AI learned more than twice as much as the students in the elite Harvard classroom. They scored 30% higher on the final assessment. And they did it in less time. Let that sink in. A piece of software sitting on a laptop outperformed a world-class faculty in one of the most elite learning environments on Earth. Universities have always justified their exorbitant tuition with two things: access to elite knowledge and the physical classroom experience. This study just proved both of those moats are gone. When software can teach you complex physics twice as well as a $60,000-a-year institution, the math of higher education breaks permanently. The AI didn't just give the students answers. It used strict pedagogical guardrails. It guided. It questioned. It forced the students to do the cognitive work. It offered perfect, one-to-one tutoring, personalized to the exact moment a student misunderstood a concept. That level of attention is mathematically impossible to scale in a physical lecture hall. For a thousand years, the university was the only place to get a premium education. Now, it’s the bottleneck. If AI can double your learning speed for a fraction of the cost, what exactly are students taking on decades of debt to pay for?

Stunning stat: "Anthropic’s investors are expecting the company to reach a valuation of $2tn when it goes public in the coming weeks. Add in SpaceX, which began trading at $2tn after its IPO in June, and OpenAI, which is considering raising money privately at $1.2tn ahead of a public listing next year, and these companies alone could be worth well north of $5tn. Now compare that with the entire history of IPOs from 1980 to 2025. The 3,365 tech companies that went public in that period were worth a combined $4.1tn when they started trading." While I've written much about AI's transformative potential across sectors, I've always been dubious about how much value hyperscalers can seize enabling that transformation. As I dissect in my recent report on "The AI Trade" ( it's not about user acquisition. OpenAI claims to have over one billion active users across its services and two million businesses using its AI models. Anthropic has claimed to have more than 300,000 business customers. The question is not whether they can bring users to their services, but rather how much average revenue they can generate per customer relative to the price of building and maintaining their models. The cost of compute is inflating at the same time competition is depressing token pricing power. That's a precarious dynamic when so much hinges on the success of two companies. To again quote the report: "It’s hard to overstate how much hinges on these IPOs. As mentioned in the Executive Summary, OpenAI and Anthropic will account for 13% of AWS revenue and 27% of Google Cloud revenue this year. As for Microsoft, OpenAI alone accounts for roughly 70% of its AI-specific revenue ($24.1 billion out of an estimated $34 billion total for the fiscal year ending in June 2026). OpenAI has committed to tens of billions of spending on chips from the likes of Nvidia and Broadcom. Deepening circularity concerns, tech giant earnings growth has been increasingly driven by paper gains in the private-market valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI. In Q2, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported $160 billion in cumulative “other income”, trouncing the $69 billion in “other income” reported in Q1. To quote the FT: “These one-off valuation boosts, derived in large part from enthusiasm around AI, risk distorting the financial picture at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing tech earnings.” If either Anthropic or OpenAI stumble in their IPOs, it’ll hit tech giants on multiple balance-sheet fronts and likely ripple through the US and global economy. A pin-prick popping of the AI bubble may not be our base case, but if a pin is out there, it’s likely the revenue versus spending trajectories of Anthropic and OpenAI." FT link:

I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.

It’s always funny how people in SF twitter bubble will say things like “Claude has unbeatable narrative momentum” and then 2 weeks later “wow did Kimi just end the race” My brother in Christ nobody outside of this little bubble even calls any AI anything other than “Chat” and they think datacenters destroy water molecules You sound dumb. Focus on things that actually impact people not the little scores on overfit evals And also people who bet against Elon are stupid. The man built real world self driving cars (non-LLM based AI) that is still the best AI I’ve ever used by far. You think he can’t come from behind and win on writing code? He’s literally catching 30 story buildings with chopsticks and that’s like one of his projects I like a lot of the tools and have friends at all the main labs. Truly amazing work being done. But the overblown commentators are actually so out of touch