The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy?
The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels.
Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call.
On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge.
Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental.
The market is simply catching up.
In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were.
Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap.
But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity.
Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself.
We have seen that cycle play out once already.
So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely. See our full report below.