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David Hockney, the artist whose brightly colored renditions of California would go on to make him one of the most celebrated artists of the 20th and 21st centuries, died on June 12, his publicist Erica Bolton said in a statement. He was 88
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看到两个新闻来聊聊Parlay⬇️ 一个是最近 @Polymarket 开始支持Parlay(Combos/串关)。 另一个是昨天尼克斯队阵马刺的比赛中,Kalshi的做市商SIG录得体育市场上最大的亏损(作为参考,taker的总盈利是 $22.4M)。 而 @Kalshi 在今年早些时候就支持了Combos。今年前四个月里,Kalshi总共有8亿美金的Combos成交量,用户的损失在15%(由SIG和Kalshi一起米西😋) ❓为什么做Parlay的做市商不是一件容易的事情? 1️⃣ Parlay的定价需要考虑的是各个事件的联合概率。而联合概率只有在事件独立的情况下才可以由各自概率推导出来P=P1 * P2 *... 所以从做市商的角度出发,如果直接按照独立事件定价,会给出过于乐观的价格。举个极端的例子,“尼克斯赢球”和“尼克斯 -5” 两个事件是包含关系,其实只有“尼克斯赢球”是有效的。 2️⃣ Parlay不像传统衍生品一样可以简单的对冲。这是因为可能结果的组合空间随着事件数量增多而爆炸。做市商需要lock的保证金也会是天文数字(当然SIG肯定和Kalshi有py协议) 3️⃣ 要对抗toxic flow。Kalshi的RFQ只藏在了APP端,并且简单的抓包是拿不到rfq的接口。文档中的combos endpoint跟Polymarket的API一样💩 但是还是有高手taker在今年3/24一天赚到 $750k ⚠️所以核心是在考验做市商的Risk Engine。如果你在做permisionless的parlay rfq,我觉得终极解决方案是通过一个类似 World Model 的东西来做 (@ylecun (不是 不然总会有这样那样的correlation被toxic taker给吃掉,特别当你是一家startup的时候(iykyk我在点名谁😼) 💡最近也有一些startup出来做这个问题,比如YC 26 Spring的 @totalistrading 。 创始人 @ericliu 提到过可以通过组合优化不同Parlay之间的事件进行对冲,从而达到类似Portfolio Margin的效果。 早期Pricing可以通过直接在independent prob上加一个discount;rfq也可以通过非常conservative的rule来ban掉包含同类型市场的组合。 特别是当Parlay扩展到其他非sportsbook的事件时,可能做insurance的玩家会更有优势 @UseCorgi @earthianai
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Dr. Eric Kwon was spending over 100 hours a month on paperwork. Lassie gave him his time back, automated his admin and got payments in under a week. Here is his story.
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America. Bitcoin. AI. Energy. @EricTrump joins @_dsencil for a wide-ranging conversation on the future of digital finance, Bitcoin mining, institutional adoption, and why the U.S. is racing to become the world's crypto superpower. Recorded at @consensus2026 in Miami. Watch now 👇
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@sourceryy @_Eric_Romo That became our first machine shop
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炸裂!华尔街神级大佬抛出终极预测:大饼五千万,以太一百五十万美金! 曾经在11美元精准押注Carvana并死拿暴赚到300美元以上的EMJ Capital创始人Eric Jackson,刚刚放出了一个极其夸张的长期目标价:未来15年内,比特币将飙升至5000万美元,以太坊将达到150万美元! 支撑这个天价预测的核心叙事,根本不是现货ETF,也不是所谓的减半周期,而是全面爆发的代理型人工智能(Agentic AI)。 随着技术进化,未来所有人都会极度依赖AI代理来处理日常生活和投资。从自动预订机票,到接管Robinhood账户进行股票交易,AI会变成比任何人都更懂你偏好的全能私人助理,人们会心甘情愿地把信任和决策权全部托付给它。 当成千上万个高度个性化的AI代理开始接管人类的商业行为时,机器与机器之间的自动交互和结算,必须建立在无缝运转的加密网络之上。这种基于AI爆发所产生的海量机器交易刚需,才是把大饼和以太坊推向史诗级高价的真正驱动力!
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AI systems are teaching themselves skills they were never trained to have. Here's the example that Eric Schmidt explained: A Google AI was prompted in Bengali. A language it was never trained on. With only a small amount of prompting, it suddenly could translate the entire Bengali language. Nobody programmed that. It just emerged on its own. Schmidt calls this "the black box problem." You don't fully understand what the model learned. You can't always tell why it got something right or why it got something wrong. The field has theories but the honest answer is: we turned it loose on society before we fully understood it. His defense: "We don't fully understand how a human mind works either." This isn't just a safety conversation. It's a business one. The companies that solve interpretability, not just raw performance, are going to be worth an enormous amount. Understanding why a model does what it does is becoming a regulatory requirement and eventually a customer trust issue. Right now the AI race is won on benchmark scores. The next phase of the race gets won on explainability.
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BREAKING: Impulse Space Raises $500M Series D Reaching $1+ Billion in Total Funding to Build In-Space Mobility Infrastructure aka "Move Things in Space" Full interview w/ President & COO Eric Romo (@_Eric_Romo) (SpaceX Employee #13#) Founder & CEO Tom Mueller (@lrocket) (SpaceX Employee #1#): "We're building more than spacecraft: we're building the economic & technical engine that will power humanity's expansion into space. From Earth orbit to the Moon & beyond, the ability to move quickly, precisely, & affordably on orbit is the fundamental capability that will unlock a true space age." We cover: → The $500M raise → Mira: precision maneuvering → Helios: same-day delivery → Caravan: GEO rideshare → Commercial vs defense → Space Force demand → SpaceX origins → Hiring 200+ roles The Series D was co-led by @137ventures & BANNER VC. Additional participating investors include Founder’s Fund, Lux Capital, & Linse Capital. 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 (00:00) Eric Romo, President & COO at Impulse Space (00:58) Fueling the next phase with a $500M Series D (04:30) Crossing the $1B funding mark (06:00) The freedom to execute (07:09) Why startups d*e from indigestion (08:30) Building beyond SpaceX (13:32) How defense became the real opportunity (16:19) Impulse’s product stack: Mira, Helios & Caravan (23:43) The economics of urgency (26:23) "Closer to a fighter jet than a tugboat" (30:40) The new era of space defense (37:33) The SpaceX DNA at Impulse (38:27) The biggest lesson from SpaceX (44:23) Hiring world class engineers (45:38) If not COO, then what? (46:43) The road to first Helios launch
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MOST PEOPLE WHO STILL THINK AI IS JUST HYPE HAVEN’T REALIZED WHAT’S COMING. LISTEN TO ERIC SCHMIDT’S EXAMPLES TO UNDERSTAND HOW POWERFUL THIS TECHNOLOGY REALLY IS. WHEN ELON, MARK, JENSEN, ERIC SCHMIDT, AND OTHERS ARE ALL SAYING THE SAME THING, IT’S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION.
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