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As usual I will give my x earnings ($488.41) to someone who likes this post! Winner chosen at random on Sunday. For extra fun if the winner follows @joinnoblemobile I will DOUBLE it and if you are a Noble subscriber I will give you FIVE times the amount! Good luck! 😀🎉

SpaceX is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued if you believe Elon and the team can execute on what they just laid out. At today’s ~$1.51T market cap, SpaceX trades at roughly 48-66x sales. Is it expensive based on today’s numbers? Sure. But look at what happens if the SpaceX team hits the targets shared on the Q2 earnings call: • $100B ARR by the end of 2026 → ~15x Price/Sales • $1 Trillion in annual revenue by 2030 → ~1.5x Price/Sales And fyi, that $1T target was pulled forward from 2031, with Elon saying there’s even a non-zero chance of reaching it in 2029. You see, SpaceX doesn’t need to stay at a 50x+ sales multiple for today’s valuation to eventually look cheap. If revenue grows ANYWHERE close to management’s roadmap, the denominator catches up super fast and the valuation multiple collapses. At the same $1.51T market cap, you go from ~48-66x sales today to ~15x at $100B ARR, and eventually just ~1.5x at $1T in revenue. So investment thesis is actually pretty simple… Either 1/ management’s targets are wildly wrong… or 2/ SpaceX at $1.51T is still pricing in far less of the future than people realize. I’m putting $ where my mouth is that the latter is the case.

ZERO Market Flash August 6, 2026 闪迪主动放弃短期利润最大化，换取穿越周期的门票——NBM 939亿美元最低合同价值，相当于约4.6个FY2026全年收入；超过50%的FY2027 bit产能，将被纳入四年以上的长期协议。 Sandisk交出了一份几乎无懈可击的成绩单。第四财季收入达到89.7亿美元，环比增长51%，同比增长73%；其中约三分之一来自销量增长，三分之二来自价格上涨。数据中心业务全年增长437%，调整后自由现金流达到50亿美元，Non-GAAP EPS为39.25美元。无论从需求、价格、利润还是现金流看，这都不是一份疲弱的财报。 但市场首先交易的并不是这些数据，而是增长速度的变化。SNDK在财报前一日收跌5.4%，财报公布后，今天盘前跌幅进一步扩大至约9.8%。Q1 FY2027收入指引中值为105.5亿美元，仍较Q4增长约17.6%；Non-GAAP EPS指引中值约45美元，也继续环比增长。市场担忧的不是收入或利润下降，而是环比增速从约51%降至约18%，以及毛利率指引83%至85%没有继续明显高于刚公布的84.6%。 因此，截至盘前，投资者仍主要在交易“季度减速”，而不是重新定价NBM的长期价值。开盘后的走势尚未发生，现在还不能判断市场是否会迅速转向长期逻辑。真正需要观察的是，投资者会不会从“下一季度还能增长多快”，逐步转向“NBM能否降低Sandisk未来盈利的周期波动”。 NBM已经不再只是一个抽象概念。按价格下限计算，已签署协议的最低合同价值达到至少939亿美元，相当于Sandisk FY2026全年收入约202.5亿美元的4.6倍。客户还提供了165亿美元现金及金融工具担保，相当于合同最低价值的约17.6%。目前公司与8家战略客户签署了10份NBM协议，加权平均期限超过四年；预计到FY2027，超过50%的bit产能将被纳入NBM，到FY2028这一比例可能进一步升至约三分之二。 这套模式并不是简单地“锁量锁价”。更准确地说，它通过长期采购承诺、价格底线和财务担保，先建立一个稳定的收入与利润底盘，同时保留价格继续上涨时的上行空间。管理层预计NBM毛利率约为80%，而且如果市场价格继续改善，实际利润率仍有进一步提升的可能。 这正是闪迪主动放弃短期利润最大化的含义。公司并没有牺牲利润本身，而是放弃在景气高点把每一单位产能都卖到最高现货价格的冲动，换取四年以上需求可见性、939亿美元最低合同价值、165亿美元履约保障，以及更稳定、更可预测的自由现金流。 传统NAND行业最难摆脱的是Boom-Bust循环：高价刺激扩产，供应增加后价格崩塌，企业被迫减产，随后市场再次进入短缺。NBM不能消灭整个行业周期，但它可能显著降低Sandisk自身对周期的暴露程度。换句话说，Sandisk试图建立的不是一个没有周期的行业，而是一家公司能够穿越周期的商业模式。 ZERO Insight 市场目前仍在交易短期减速：昨日收跌5.4%，今天盘前跌幅扩大至约9.8%。但NBM真正锁定的，不只是订单，而是未来四年以上的经营底盘。 939亿美元不是增长上限，而是合同下限；约80%也不是利润天花板，而是公司试图建立的周期底部。 今天市场卖出的，是增长率。未来市场是否重新定价的，可能是Sandisk能否把NAND的周期性风险，转化为长期确定性。 Search Tags: #SNDK# #Sandisk# #NBM# #NAND# #AIStorage# #Datacenter# #Memory# #Earnings# #FreeCashFlow# #ZEROAlpha#

As usual I will give my x earnings ($760.50) to someone who likes this post! Winner chosen at random on Sunday. For extra fun if the winner follows @joinnoblemobile I will DOUBLE it and if you are a Noble subscriber I will give you FIVE times the amount! Good luck! 😀🎉

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Watch the full recording of our Q2 2026 earnings call. Prepared Remarks 00:00:00 - Welcome 00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin 00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage 00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020 00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management 00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased 00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance 00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume 00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination 00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics 01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition Q&A 01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves 01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility 01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt 01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin 01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par 02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management 02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par 02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 dislocation 02:34:54 - Closing remarks