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The show runs 24/7. 🍿 📌 Tue: JOLTS, an early look at labor demand 📌 Fri: NFP & Unemployment, the big one for rate expectations 📌 Earnings: Micron (AI/chips), Nike (consumer), Accenture (tech services), Carnival (travel) & more This week on Binance. 👉

Stunning stat: "Anthropic’s investors are expecting the company to reach a valuation of $2tn when it goes public in the coming weeks. Add in SpaceX, which began trading at $2tn after its IPO in June, and OpenAI, which is considering raising money privately at $1.2tn ahead of a public listing next year, and these companies alone could be worth well north of $5tn. Now compare that with the entire history of IPOs from 1980 to 2025. The 3,365 tech companies that went public in that period were worth a combined $4.1tn when they started trading." While I've written much about AI's transformative potential across sectors, I've always been dubious about how much value hyperscalers can seize enabling that transformation. As I dissect in my recent report on "The AI Trade" ( it's not about user acquisition. OpenAI claims to have over one billion active users across its services and two million businesses using its AI models. Anthropic has claimed to have more than 300,000 business customers. The question is not whether they can bring users to their services, but rather how much average revenue they can generate per customer relative to the price of building and maintaining their models. The cost of compute is inflating at the same time competition is depressing token pricing power. That's a precarious dynamic when so much hinges on the success of two companies. To again quote the report: "It’s hard to overstate how much hinges on these IPOs. As mentioned in the Executive Summary, OpenAI and Anthropic will account for 13% of AWS revenue and 27% of Google Cloud revenue this year. As for Microsoft, OpenAI alone accounts for roughly 70% of its AI-specific revenue ($24.1 billion out of an estimated $34 billion total for the fiscal year ending in June 2026). OpenAI has committed to tens of billions of spending on chips from the likes of Nvidia and Broadcom. Deepening circularity concerns, tech giant earnings growth has been increasingly driven by paper gains in the private-market valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI. In Q2, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft reported $160 billion in cumulative “other income”, trouncing the $69 billion in “other income” reported in Q1. To quote the FT: “These one-off valuation boosts, derived in large part from enthusiasm around AI, risk distorting the financial picture at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing tech earnings.” If either Anthropic or OpenAI stumble in their IPOs, it’ll hit tech giants on multiple balance-sheet fronts and likely ripple through the US and global economy. A pin-prick popping of the AI bubble may not be our base case, but if a pin is out there, it’s likely the revenue versus spending trajectories of Anthropic and OpenAI." FT link:

Grok Bot Summary of SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen at Goldman Sachs Communacopia today. Vertical integration Vertical integration is the company’s core operating model, not a side strategy. - Rockets: own metal → engines → avionics → software - Starlink: own launch, satellites, and the end customer - AI: build facilities and power themselves, run their own models, sell to consumer and enterprise, and soon orbital compute Starship and launch Starship is the foundation for every other business. - Flight 13: big learning flight. Delivered demo V3 payloads, relit a Raptor, and got a soft, precise second-stage splashdown. Recovery team towed the stage back so engineers could study the heat shield. - Those learnings feed straight into Flight 14 and beyond. - Flight 14 (later this month): first revenue-generating Starship flight, flying production V3 Starlink satellites. - Later this year: aim to recover both first and second stages. Orbital compute Most of the AI industry agrees orbital compute is the future. Almost everyone else thinks it’s many years away. SpaceX disagrees because they control the stack. - Target: first orbital compute satellites next year - Scale: big compute in space into 2028 - Hardware approach: same V3 bus as Starlink, swap the payload, add larger solar arrays Why orbital can beat terrestrial on cost The crossover is about Starship reusability. - Falcon 9: first-stage reuse since Dec 2015; 500+ booster reflights - Starship: first stage already recovered/reflown; second-stage recovery progressing - Goal: reflight of both stages as soon as next year, which drops deployment cost sharply Terrestrial compute is getting more expensive (power, cooling, buildings, real estate). Orbital rides the opposite curve: cheaper rockets + better/cheaper satellites + scale. Johnsen said cost parity could come as soon as next year. Terrestrial compute and the $100B ARR goal - End of this year: on track for ~$100B ARR (annualizing the December number) - New update: another hosting deal closed earlier this month → about $1.1B/month starting Dec 1 → roughly +$13B ARR - Capacity: end this year well over 2 GW; next year 5–10 GW deployed - Confidence comes from line of sight to power, facilities, and permitting, plus being NVIDIA-exclusive for allocation - They stand compute up fast for themselves and for industry partners, which strengthens the NVIDIA relationship How they monetize compute Most hosting deals are short: ~90 days with a 90-day out (~6-month commits), including the newest deal. Why keep them short? - High conviction in their own products (Grok, Grok Bot, Cursor team after closing that deal) - Don’t want to lock forever capacity they may need internally - Internal bar: don’t let internal monetization fall below external hosting Earnings framing for next year: roughly $30–$50 per watt monetization range; they said they’re at the high end. Hosting customers appear to monetize even higher, which is why demand stays strong. Payback is under one year on new compute capex, so residual GPU value and financing options look attractive. “Not all CapEx is the same” — GPUs with <1-year payback are different from a launch tower built for decades. AI products and M&A Historically SpaceX was almost all organic growth. This year they did M&A because the AI product cycle rewards speed to frontier. - Closed Cursor deal weeks ago; product cycles already accelerating (called out Grok Bot) - Grok 4.6 improved on 4.5; 4.7 coming soon - Pitch: best infrastructure + competitive model + lower token cost = best position for customers - Market mood shift: months ago people bought the infra story but doubted the products; ~90 days later that skepticism is fading Starlink broadband Started as “better than nothing” (~2020–21). Now enterprise-grade with strong uptime/SLAs. - Resiliency pitch: boards will ask why Starlink wasn’t in the network if you go down - Mobility: aircraft backlog is large and production is ramping; cruise ships, yachts, trains too - Awareness, especially outside the US, is still a growth unlock - Longer-term: physical AI (robots, cars, aircraft) will need always-on connectivity terrestrial networks can’t fully cover Mobile / direct-to-cell Not a distraction. Same V3 bus, different payload. - Fly direct-to-device satellites through next year - Target service turn-on: first half of 2028 - V1 today (e.g. T-Mobile / T-SAT): text / light voice, great for emergencies and dead zones - Next gen: full 5G-quality from space - US: mid-band spectrum from EchoStar, FCC path for space + terrestrial - Go-to-market: flexible — own terrestrial build, or partner with carriers - International: same regulator-by-regulator playbook as broadband (Starlink now in 170+ countries) Near-term priorities: 1. Starship (enables everything else) 2. Terrestrial compute (funds growth and teaches them how to do orbital) Bottom line in one line Own the full stack, make Starship reusable at scale, use terrestrial AI compute as a cash engine now, and use the same satellite bus + Starship cadence to win broadband, mobile, and orbital AI.

NVIDIA crushed its latest earnings report. Revenue soared past expectations with Q3 projections at $108B (±2%). Trade NVDAUSDT and win your share of 100K USDT: #BybitEarningsSeason#

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NVDA earnings triggered a sharp surge in TradFi Perp activity. Daily volume crossed ~US$1.6B, with Binance accounting for ~50% at the peak and volume >9x its pre-earnings average. This occurred as NVDA swung ~9ppt into pre-market, underscoring demand for off-hours exposure.

ZERO ALPHA Research Preview | Reframing NVDA NVIDIA’s latest earnings report is the trigger event for a new round of deep research. A company already among the largest in the world just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth, with Data Center revenue up 117%. What is striking is not simply that NVIDIA beat expectations again, but that its core business has returned to a doubling growth rate from an already enormous base, even as AMD GPUs, hyperscaler-designed chips, and custom AI accelerators continue to enter the market. That prompted us to go back and re-examine NVIDIA’s full growth trajectory since 2023. When revenue growth, earnings growth, stock-price appreciation, and P/E are viewed together, a very different pattern begins to emerge. The first NVIDIA spring was largely top-down. The market recognized the potential of generative AI first, the stock price moved ahead, and earnings later caught up. The second spring now looks increasingly bottom-up. Revenue growth re-accelerated from: 56% → 62% → 73% → 85% → 106% while valuation multiples moved lower rather than higher. In simple terms: First Spring: P led E. Second Spring: E is beginning to lead P. This earnings report therefore may represent more than another earnings beat. It may be a signal that NVDA itself needs to be reframed. It also raises a broader question: What actually defines a true mega-cap growth stock? A high P/E alone does not define growth. The rarest structure may be a company that is already enormous, still grows its core business near 100%, generates earnings faster than its stock price rises, avoids excessive valuation expansion, and continues to create new TAM. Applying this framework to AMD, MU, SNDK, LITE, ALAB, DELL, and the hyperscalers makes the leadership hierarchy increasingly clear. Many of them have strong growth, but each still carries a weakness in valuation, cyclicality, pricing dependence, platform control, or growth durability. NVDA currently presents a more unusual combination. More importantly, at least four additional growth engines are still developing: Pricing Power Supply Efficiency Open Models Inference Specialization If these continue to develop, today’s NVIDIA may not yet represent the peak of this second growth cycle. And NVIDIA’s second spring may not belong to NVIDIA alone. Memory and storage, optical networking, and AI data-center operators could all benefit if another AI infrastructure expansion cycle is now beginning. ZERO ALPHA will therefore use this earnings report — a mega-cap company returning to 100%+ core growth — as the starting point for a six-part NVDA Research Note series: 1/6. NVDA: The Second Spring — From P Leading E to E Leading P 2/6. NVDA: What Defines a True Mega-Cap Growth Stock? 3/6. NVDA: Why It Is Still in Its Prime, Not Near the Peak 4/6. NVDA: Four New Growth Engines — How Far Can the Second Spring Go? 5/6. NVDA: Why Leaders Lose Leadership — Lessons from Intel, Tesla, and AMD 6/6. NVDA: Will the Second Spring Reignite the Entire AI Infrastructure Chain? Each note will focus on one independent question and can be read on its own. ZERO Insight The most important message from this earnings report may not be that NVIDIA beat expectations again. It may be this: When a company already this large returns to 100%+ core growth while trading at a much lower P/E than during its first AI explosion, what needs to be revalued may not be just NVDA’s stock price — but our entire understanding of mega-cap growth.

📈 CoinMarketCap | bStocks 📈 NVIDIA ($NVDA) · $NVDAB NVIDIA jumped 5% the day after earnings. 🔹 Revenue hit $96.2B, up 106% 🔹 Data centre brought in $89.0B 🔹 The backlog passed $2 trillion Note: A $2T backlog means Nvidia has $2 trillion in confirmed, unfulfilled orders locked in for the future! Track $NVDAB, the tokenized $NVDA, on CoinMarketCap 👇

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$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.