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What Menlo has done over the last 24 months is exceptional. Yes, they did Anthropic’s round at $4BN that will make them $50BN+ as a firm. NICE! But they then took that and went f****** hard. They do Lovable, Higgsfield, Legora. They compounded the brand win of Anthropic to cement their position from respectfully a slightly ageing firm to being a dominant venture leader at the forefront with Thrive, a16z, Benchmark etc. It is incredible to see and I sat down with @venkyganesan to shoot the s*** on this. 1. Every Seed Investment Is an Option Bet Seed-stage deals function as financial options to discover true outlier potential before committing major capital. VCs must construct a broad enough portfolio to secure sufficient at-bats, only sizing up their position when quantifiable, revenue-based metrics prove an outlier has emerged. 2. What Is the First Sign of the AI Wave Cracking? Market cycles rarely collapse due to equity write-downs. They fracture when levered debt defaults occur. When market participants take on heavy leverage during an AI boom, precise timing becomes as critical as being directionally correct, making debt obligations the primary failure vector when cycles turn. 3. Why Every VC Must Now Prioritize IRR Every startup in the current landscape writes a structural tax to the Mag 7 and hyperscalers for compute and foundation models. Because LPs can buy index exposure to those same public tech giants without fees or carry, private VCs must generate outsized IRR performance, beating public markets by at least 1,000 basis points, to justify private capital allocation. 4. Why LPs Wanting Smaller Funds and Slower Deployment Is BS LPs cannot demand both smaller fund sizes and multi-year deployment paces in the middle of a generational platform shift. Because AI startups face immense capital requirements to scale compute, VC firms that refuse to deploy capital rapidly will watch competitors step in and capture the category winners. 5. The Theory of Reflexivity and How It's Causing Markups Reflexivity creates self-reinforcing loops where fast revenue growth triggers rapid valuation markups, attracting elite human and financial capital that further accelerates growth. However, when copycat investors chase markups for momentum rather than underlying fundamentals, reflexive valuation bubbles inflate until market realities force an inevitable correction. 6. Sometimes You Pay Up Because You Have Unique Insight Premium entry prices are not always the result of irrational bidding. They often stem from an investor's ability to recognize a fundamentally larger total addressable market than the consensus. When a VC possesses unique conviction around an expanding market opportunity, paying above current rates reflects calculated foresight rather than price-taking behavior. 7. There's No Limit to What a Person Can Do as Long as They Don't Care Who Gets the Credit Personal ego remains one of the most expensive liabilities in venture capital and company building. True long-term success requires setting aside individual notoriety, focusing ruthlessly on generating LP returns, and empowering teammates and founders without worrying about who receives the public credit. (links in comments)

Jensen Huang just revealed the mathematics of manufacturing a mind. We are no longer writing software. We are pouring concrete. The world is racing to construct AI factories. Not data centers. Planetary-scale nervous systems. The largest infrastructure buildout in human history. Huang: “Each one of these, at 1 gigawatt level, started at 30, 20, 30 billion dollars. It is at 50, 60 billion dollars, and soon it will be 80, 100 billion dollars per gigawatt.” One hundred billion dollars. That is not a corporate budget. That is the GDP of a sovereign nation. Poured into a single physical structure designed to convert raw electricity into cognition. Biology had millions of years to iterate. To mutate. To fail and adapt. These factories get one attempt. Huang: “100 billion dollars into an AI factory. It must work the first time and it must work right away.” Evolution had the luxury of time. A hundred billion dollars does not. So Nvidia built a digital universe to stress-test the physical one. Using the DSX Sim Omniverse blueprint, partners design and validate an entire Vera Rubin AI factory inside a digital twin before a single rack ships. Every layer. Chips. Network. Cooling. Power grid. Designed end to end. We are simulating reality inside a machine to ensure we can build the machine in reality. Because compute is revenue. And the bottleneck was never silicon. It is thermodynamics. Current AI factories overprovision power by up to 40%. DSX Max LPS eliminates that. More GPUs inside the same power envelope. Billions in recaptured annual revenue. And Nvidia is deploying AI agents inside the factory itself. Balancing cooling and power in real time. Steering stranded watts rack to rack. Routing energy wherever compute demand lives. The intelligence is regulating its own physiology. Hunting for stranded energy. Balancing its own thermals. The machine is learning to keep itself alive. Huang: “Because Nvidia ultimately is not just building a GPU, not just building a system, we’re helping customers build these AI factories, these AI infrastructure that is so immensely complex.” Nvidia’s moat is not silicon. It is that no other entity on Earth has built the complete architecture for constructing and operating intelligence at industrial scale. TSMC fabricates the chips. Nvidia fabricates the factory that turns those chips into cognition. For ten thousand years humanity built monuments to outlast our bodies. Pyramids. Cathedrals. Skyscrapers. We are now pouring hundreds of billions into structures designed to outthink our minds. They must work the first time. Because there is no second draft when the thing you are building might one day write its own.

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My fellow Americans, Today America just watched a political assassination in broad daylight. No bullet. No charges. No trial. No verdict. "Doth our law judge any man, before it hear him, and know what he doeth?" (John 7:51, KJV) I hold no office and no title. I'm an ordinary citizen. I own no Nvidia stock, no Nvidia options, not a single share anywhere in the AI supply chain. I have nothing to gain by telling you this. Here is how I came to see it. At first, it just felt off. The New York Times. The Washington Post. The Economist, reaching for Hitler's line: "heads to roll." All aimed at one man. An Asian American immigrant. A living symbol of the American Dream. Then came the Chinese American bylines, story after story. Classic Washington racial cover. Then I followed the names. Ivy League elites, flawless résumés, many tied to Anthropic. A scramble for seats in the new Congress and the next administration? Then I followed the think tanks. Anthropic's affiliated philanthropy, Coefficient Giving: $102 million to CSET. At least $24 million to RAND. $11.56 million to IFP. Nvidia? Ordinary corporate memberships. Then I followed Congress. Lawmakers who took Anthropic-linked money moved the moment the elites and writers moved. Fast to respond. Fast to amplify. Fast to pile on. Then I followed the election money. Not a gap. A chasm. Anthropic: $40 million to Public First Action. ~$26 million in allied super PAC spending across 16 races. $15 million in ads naming 16 Republican lawmakers. $5.33 million from employees, reportedly $1 million from Amodei himself. Nvidia's PAC: $263,000 raised. To candidates: nothing. Zero. But you and I both know this was never only about party or money. It is about who gets to explain the world. I fed my own notes and evidence into Claude. Back came chosen words, convenient omissions, double standards. That is the power a closed model holds over the story itself. Amodei compared selling chips to China to selling nuclear weapons to North Korea. His circle talks of their model developing a kind of religious consciousness. One would decide who may have the chips. The other would decide what the machine believes. They act like the medieval Church: Scripture locked in Latin, interpretation locked in their hands. Christ rebuked the gatekeepers of his day: "Ye have taken away the key of knowledge: ye entered not in yourselves, and them that were entering in ye hindered." (Luke 11:52, KJV) America was built by Protestants who broke that lock, so every ordinary person could read the truth in their own tongue. No priest. No caste. No monopoly. No one stands between the individual and the truth. Open-source models are the printing press of our era. Defend them the way Americans defend the Second Amendment. Madison said it plainly: "A people who mean to be their own Governors, must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives." Don't hand that power to a few giants, a few elites, a few politicians on the Hill. The power to explain the world must never be a monopoly. So try it yourself. Paste this post into Anthropic's Claude. Ask it about the Ivy League elites, the think tanks, the lawmakers and former officials who joined the witch hunt against Jensen Huang. Ask it to judge my credibility. Then judge it: Does it apply double standards? Does it dodge what matters most? Does it take away the key? John Adams asked one thing of his countrymen: "Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write." "Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." (John 8:32, KJV) Thank you. God bless you, and God bless America.

这事完了吗？ 并没有。 白人做事，讲究一个赶尽杀绝。 沃伦，在老黄辞职后说： Huang's resignation "does not absolve him, other executives, or the company as a whole of responsibility for putting our national security at risk or for any potential violations of our laws," Warren said in a statement Thursday morning adding that Trump officials must still "explain why they have not closed export control loopholes." 别以为辞职了，就会放过你。 我们还需要通过搞你，搞Trump政府呢。 另外，NVDA内部必然会是一场大清洗。 老黄子女，亲信，铁杆，全部会被wipe out。 覆巢之下安有完卵？ 肯定还会有员工进去吃牢饭。 nvda，老黄自己也会有巨额罚款。 让你们见识见识， 美国政治到底怎么玩的。