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China is not only pricing technology. It is pricing political freshness. I recently came across the terms “old tech” and “new tech” in Chinese investment circles. I found that interesting and looked into it. “Old tech” refers to the internet giants of the last cycle: Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD, Baidu, NetEase, Xiaomi and their peers. These companies make up bulk of investable indexes. They have users, cash flow, engineers, cloud infrastructure, payment systems, data and distribution. In most markets, that would make them strategic assets. But in China, they also carry political baggage. They are associated with platform monopolies, regulatory crackdowns, gaming restrictions, weak consumption, brutal e-commerce competition, and Xi’s campaign against private platform power. They dominate market capitalization, but no longer dominate the national imagination. “New tech” refers to sectors now favoured by Beijing: AI, large language models, semiconductors, robotics, advanced manufacturing, domestic chips, embodied intelligence and other technologies tied to “new productive forces.” Many of these companies are smaller, less proven, and barely commercial. Yet they command extraordinary valuations because investors are pricing scarcity, policy support, import substitution and national-security relevance. The valuation gap shows the point. Tencent and Alibaba remain huge — roughly HK$4 trillion(USD 600B) and HK$2 trillion in market value — but trade like mature businesses, generally around 10–20x earnings and low-single-digit sales multiples. By contrast, Cambricon, a chip designer, has traded around RMB1 trillion, at more than 100x sales and over 300x earnings. MiniMax, an AI company, was valued at roughly 80x sales at IPO and now trades at more than 600x sales. Zhipu, another AI company, reportedly moved from roughly 66x sales at IPO to over 1,000x sales. For reference, OpenAI is valued at roughly 36x run-rate sales. Anthropic is valued at roughly 20x run-rate sales. This is not a normal growth premium. It is scarcity, policy blessing, import substitution and national-champion imagination being capitalized into market value. That is the real dichotomy in China today: not old versus new, but commercially proven versus politically favoured. China is not the capital market most outsiders think they are investing in. It operates by a different set of rules. Many international investors understand the numbers, but only half-understand the game.

SpaceX has just officially received an investment grade credit rating of Baa1 from Moody's, slightly higher than @Tesla's Baa3 rating. Their reasoning: "SpaceX's Baa1 issuer rating reflects the company's exceptional franchise strength as the world's leading orbital launch provider and operator of the largest low earth orbit satellite broadband network, Starlink. The company benefits from robust and expanding recurring revenue from Starlink, which has become the primary cash flow generator and underpins improving scale, margin expansion, and diversification away from more cyclical launch revenues. Additionally, SpaceX's vertical integration across manufacturing, launch, satellite deployment, and end-customer delivery drives superior cost efficiency and operational velocity that competitors have been unable to replicate. Strategic relevance to the U.S. government, as the primary launch provider for NASA and the Department of Defense, adds demand visibility and long-cycle contract support, while the company's ability to monetize AI compute capacity through third-party arrangements provides additional revenue diversification and downside optionality. The AI segment addresses a large total addressable market across AI infrastructure, consumer and enterprise applications, and digital advertising, and represents significant long-term revenue and earnings upside as the company scales its compute infrastructure, develops its frontier models, and expands enterprise and consumer monetization channels. The company maintains conservative financial policies, alongside strong liquidity and financial flexibility, supported by substantial cash balances and continued access to both equity and debt capital markets."

Elon Musk thinks money has an expiration date. Not the dollar. Not the system. The concept itself. Elon Musk: “I think long term… money disappears as a concept.” Not crashes. Not inflates. Disappears. Most people hear that and dismiss it. Musk is the one who said it. And then built around it. Musk: “You no longer need money as a database for labor allocation.” Database for labor allocation. Strip away the mystique and it gets colder. Money was never wealth. It was a ledger of what we deny each other. Every price is a wall. Every balance is a count of what you cannot have yet. Musk: “If AI and robotics are big enough to satisfy all human needs, then… its relevance declines dramatically.” His bet is the wall comes down. And unlike the people debating it, he’s building the machines that knock it over. If machines can make anything, need stops being a negotiation. And the ledger of denial has nothing left to count. So he reaches for what survives. Musk: “Energy is the true currency. You can’t legislate energy.” You can print money. You cannot print power. Musk: “You can’t just pass a law and suddenly have a lot of energy.” This is why he built Tesla. Why he built SolarCity. Why every company he touches bends toward energy production, storage, or conversion. He was never chasing cars. He was chasing the real currency before most people understood what it was. Every dollar ever printed was a proxy for energy. Every stock. Every bond. A claim on future energy dressed in paper and pixels. We spent millennia worshipping the proxy and forgot what it was pointing at. Musk didn’t forget. Then he scaled it to civilization itself. Musk: “One way to frame civilizational progress is the percentage completion on the Kardashev scale.” Kardashev 1. Harness your planet. Kardashev 2. Harness your star. Kardashev 3. Harness your galaxy. Musk: “Things really become energy-based.” Most founders optimize for quarters. Musk optimizes for Kardashev levels. Then Nikhil Kamath asked the question that unravels everything. If we harvest the sun… energy is free too. Infinite. Useless as a store of value. Money dies of abundance. Then energy dies the same death. Both were just names for scarcity. Kill scarcity and the names go with it. We always assumed the destination was getting everything. Nobody priced what happens after. What stays scarce when everything is already yours. The machines can manufacture anything except the thing that actually matters. Time you don’t get back. A life that still ends. Someone choosing you when they could have chosen anyone. When nothing has a price, the only thing left with value is you. A world where everything is free is a world that finally asks what you were for. Most people have never had to answer. Musk is already building the world that forces the question.