说些有些人不喜欢听的, 这两天镁光CEO说「苹果前几年5刀内存卖100刀, 涨价到 50刀卖250刀; 压价到把镁光利润干负」, 根本就不像是一个职业经理人说的话.
首先承认那几年苹果 8G 内存选配加 100刀确实很贵, 但对C端卖 SKU 和卖裸片就不是一个逻辑.
很多人都知道 Mac 入门机型实际到手价比官方标价低得多, 导致选配加价比苹果标价还高, 还不如直接选择更高端配置的基础款走其他平台的来的优惠.
其实就说明基础款机型的价格都是被特殊优惠的, 包括到今年 16+512 Air 那个国补后价格其实就是性价比爆棚.
而且要知道, Apple Silicon 本身的架构到今天还是很领先, 加上到今天主流 PC 笔记本都没几个上 3nm 的, 苹果能每年给笔记本用新工艺+新封装, 保持 10-20% 的速度高速迭代, 研发成本可想而知.
而很多人眼里高性价比的 PC, Y-1 Y-2 那种老处理器(比如7840)改名当新品卖的情况早就是常态化, 论各方面产品力的差距就是被 Mac 不断拉开. 甚至可以预计, 到这些厂商库存基本清完, 那价格也得起飞.
至于为什么这么晚才起飞, 还不是因为需求疲弱, 而稍微张点价需求又被压制.
很多人嘲笑 Steam Machine 的高定价, 就是因为 V 社现在的制造模式就是 JIT, 没有库存 RAM 的话那只能卖这个价才有基本利润.
甚至很多人不知道, 苹果的内存, 不管你是 128G 还是 512G 的 Mac Studio, 被一泡水意外损坏了, 他们购入 AC+ 还有后续服务的价格都是一样的.
等于说苹果的内存和存储定价, 就是包括了售后的溢价成本. 当然就以现在的涨价幅度来说, 可能当初的定价都不太够 cover.
现在大家也看到了, 所谓那些年买的便宜 SSD 和内存, 以及还有显卡, 哪怕是自然损坏, 厂商居然会想尽办法拒保, 甚至宁可退钱也不给你修.
而如果翻旧账的话, 镁光说苹果 23 年压价, 但情况是 22 年很多手机厂商以为口罩紧张还在持续, 特别是小米还在做季度 TOP1 后的美梦, 结果一到 23 年初发现制成品起飞了, 开始去库存, 然后镁光等内存厂的订单光速萎缩.
要知道 Fab 里面的机台轨道的运行都是高度编程化的, 包括辅料订货生产都是相对稳定的速度, 如果需求一旦萎缩, 产能缩减会变得非常痛苦, 等于厂商不能大幅度降低产能, 致使生产成本变得像是运营成本, 但生产出来的产品又卖不掉, 再加上内存闪存都是规格通用的产品, 生产端竞价就很激烈, 那镁光的东西让苹果接盘就不错了, 还怨人家那会压价.
当然苹果这波加价肯定也是超过实际物料涨价水平的, 但过了 618 才涨价, 说明苹果已经认为价格敏感人群基本都选购的差不多了, 剩下的客户都是刚需客户.
那要知道 Mac 这玩意现在有多刚需, 我有个做运营的朋友之前还在用老 Intel Mac, 日常出门带个 M3 iPad Air 当电脑用, 结果发现要玩 CodeX 提高工作效率, 或者做副业, 那 Apple Silicon Mac 就是刚需.
甚至最近大家也都知道 MS 开始要加强 Windows 的原生 Shell 能力, 毕竟 WSL2 太重, 而 PS/CMD/PS 的linux alais 基本是几坨屎山; Linux Desktop 又是万年烂泥扶不上墙, 那等于说现在要用 Claude Code 或者 CodeX, 以及用 Xcode 搞 iOS 开发, 那 Mac 就是唯一选项.
所以说 Apple 是有理由认为, 随着 AI 工具流的进一步加强, 苹果能从 Mac 上从用户收 AI 工具税.
甚至苹果自己的 Apple Silicon 云端算力机房都要用大量算力, 甚至对开发者可以有很大的免费额度去提供给用户, 而不需要其他的复杂订阅条件, 那显然这些钱总是要有来源的.
再说个情况就是, 如果企业也发现要让员工利用 AI 生产力而选购 Mac 的话, 那苹果更有理由加价.
要知道 PC 企业采购市场也是溢价的一塌糊涂, 但产品力远不如 Mac; 苹果在这个阶段改变策略其实基本是出于合理理性.
作为消费者骂骂之前苹果内存贵差不多得了, 今年基础款配置内存加上去, 还能叠那么多优惠, 又是 N2P 工艺新架构新品的 M5 系列早不买, 到了现在涨价了又来骂, 这种人说白了就既没脑子也没钱, 因为但凡有生产刚需, 能创造额外收入/时间节约、对行情有点了解就早下手了.
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As an OG PC Geek, let me educate yall for a moment.
Personal Computers have come a long way since the 90's. Hell, back then, gaming consoles were much better at playing games. PC's were vastly more expensive and hard to use.
The custom PC revolution in the 2000's changed all of this; my friends and I regularly saved for new parts and were able to play new games that didn't exist on console at really good quality.
It was an unbelievable time to be alive.
However, since 2021, gaming has not increased its fidelity all that much, specifically with the games most people actually play.
If you do some research, you'll see that before the Ai boom took off, using 2021 as the foundation, the hardware from that time is still widely used, so much so that developers ensure their games can run on it.
Have graphics and performance changed much since 2021? No, not at all. Did it even change much from 2016 to 2021? Ditto, same situation.
What has changed is this: Memory use in applications and standards in app performance expectations
Operating Systems and Apps use much more memory than ever before, and so do games. 16GB is fairly standard now and 10GB of that always being in use is common enough when running everything at once.
4K gaming is very viable but is much more costly on the high end, adding roughly $500+ more cost to your GPU requirements. 1440p is the sweet spot right now
Consider the following PC Hardware Config:
• GPU: RTX 3060 12GB – $250
• CPU: Ryzen 5 5600X – $147
• Mobo: MSI B550-A Pro – $110
• RAM: 16GB DDR4 3200MHz – $130
• SSD: 1TB NVMe PCIe 4.0 – $164
• PSU: MSI MAG A850GL – $95
• Case: NZXT H6 Flow – $86
Total: ~$982 (All brand-new parts)
Compared to the $1,050 for the Steam Machine...
Well! Not bad
But here's the catch:
This $982 PC I put together beats the Steam Machine in several key areas:
The storage is double, 512GB versus 1TB M.2
The CPU uses more power, runs faster.
The GPU has 4GB more VRAM
The RAM is 2 sticks, 8GB each, reducing potential bottleneck issues.
However, the Steam Machine will still play all the most popular games, just not at ideal settings in some cases, and doesn't require you to build it yourself, or deal with higher temperatures, loud fans, and larger form factor. Plus it has a great OS pre-installed for you!
IT'S TIME TO REMOVE WINDOWS FOREVER!!!!!
*ahem*
Steam Machine offers a lot for what it is and i think people will buy it for the convenience it offers.
*BUT*
My primary point with all of THIS, is to say:
Gaming has peaked. The War Is Over.
Hardware past 2021 doesn't give better performance in any meaningful way.
Check the required specs for the game you want to play, and get those parts. Simple as.
However, I would highly suggest everyone to consider the new value add of Personal Computers going forward:
You can create your own mini data center at home with self hosting tools, using much of the same hardware in your gaming PC, but with a lot more RAM, GPU power and storage requirements, doubling the cost.
You can ditch all the subscription services and start building your Exocore today with self hosted AI.
This is what PC's are moving towards and eventually everyone will build it themselves or have someone do it for them. I'm doing it myself right now and suggest you do too, or get your PC Geek friend to do it for you.
Welcome to the new world
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