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Predicting cyclones accurately can help save lives - and every hour of lead time counts. Published in @Nature, our AI model WeatherNext achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in forecasting a storm’s track and intensity, giving us a critical extra 24 hours to prepare on average. 🧵

Here is my AI investing guide. Sitting here August 2026, my current best thoughts are as follows: 1. LPS (Land Power Shell) is still the most obvious and fastest path to cash on cash returns. Lots of value can be assembled and traded quickly at this layer. And as data centers get more pushback, energized land can explode in value. Very bullish here. I’ve stepped into this layer very aggressively. My partner @anitavlallian and I have acquired almost 6GW coming online in a ramp from today thru 2029 of grid power and behind the meter. 2. Silicon - I helped get @GroqInc off the ground in 2015 and we licensed it to @nvidia for $20B Dec2025. I won’t invest or incubate anything in this layer now. The perf demands of the chips are too high, manufacturing precision is too complex and supply chain influence to get adjacent components like memory isn’t possible for a startup anymore. Lots of capital will be wasted here chasing Groq and Cerebras’ success. Note that both startups made sense a decade ago when these constraints were much more modest. 3. Clouds - Clouds are very very lucrative but very hard to build and very expensive and technically complicated to maintain. And as alignment becomes a more important issue, I expect the clouds will be asked to build robust KYC and attest to it. This makes the risk:reward ratio skewed. I don’t want to be responsible when the USG says a cloud allowed a bad actor to do something bad because of poor KYC. 4. Models are complicated. The big open question is how much of the revenue being generated by them today is because of tokenmaxxing and poor model behavior. If it’s a lot, then the annualized revenues will diminish meaningfully even as token consumption inflects upwards. This is the big economic question at this layer. 5. Harnesses are where the action is and why I started @8090solutions two years ago. In a nutshell, the harness helps enterprises owns their proprietary context (what Alex Karp calls their ‘alpha’). This is an enterprise’s data, workflows, evals, and business rules. A harness that gives this to an enterprise is what creates very low model-agnostic switching costs, which further reinforces my views of #4# above. 6. Applications will be another long term winner along with harnesses. This is where the differentiation between “off the shelf” and “custom time and materials” melts away. Every company, with the right harness, can now imbue their alpha into the software that runs their company. I expect this to mean that “off the shelf” is largely replaced with custom software creating a huge opportunity to write these solutions for companies. Build once and sell repeatedly is a laggard GTM motion for a SaaS world that isn’t needed here. Think custom by design, alpha embedded, proprietary by nature. Fin. Good luck to all the players!

Après toutes ces vagues d’immigration en Espagne, je vais vous expliquer par A + B pourquoi une partie de la gauche a structurellement besoin de flux continus d’arrivées irrégulières pour rester au pouvoir. A. Un immigrant qui vient d’arriver via le Maroc, interviewé dans la rue par Nate Friedman, répond sans détour : une fois papiers obtenus, il votera socialiste toute sa vie. Pas par idéologie profonde. Par rationalité simple : le parti qui régularise, qui donne accès aux aides, qui parle « droits », devient le clientèle naturelle. B. Les électeurs natifs, eux, commencent à voir le coût (logement, écoles, sécurité, cohésion). L’IA accélère brutalement cette prise de conscience. Les narratifs émotionnels qui ont fonctionné pendant 40-50 ans (division, victimisation permanente, « si tu critiques tu es méchant ») perdent de leur puissance quand tout le monde peut croiser les données en deux clics. Résultat mécanique : plus les gens comprennent le deal, plus il faut importer de nouveaux électeurs fidèles pour compenser ceux qui partent. C’est de l’arithmétique électorale pure. On l’a vu aux États-Unis malgré la victoire de Trump. On le voit en train de se rejouer en Europe. Ce n’est pas une question de « haine des étrangers ». La plupart des gens qui arrivent réagissent rationnellement aux incentives qu’on leur met sous le nez. Le vrai problème, c’est l’idée politique qui transforme l’immigration en machine à clientèle permanente plutôt qu’en processus d’intégration exigeant et sélectif. Les mauvaises idées ne détruisent pas seulement les sociétés. Elles finissent par détruire d’abord ceux qui les portent : la confiance s’érode, la polarisation explose, les crises s’enchaînent. Si les peuples européens ne reprennent pas le contrôle de cette dynamique très vite, on se dirige vers des sociétés de plus en plus fragmentées, à basse confiance, où la seule collure qui reste est la redistribution clientéliste. L’histoire montre que ce genre de trajectoire ne se termine rarement bien. Mais on n’est pas condamnés. L’IA retire les piliers de l’opacité. X retire le monopole narratif. La reconversion est toujours possible. Le 21e siècle appartiendra à ceux qui construisent des sociétés à haute confiance, pas à ceux qui diluent sans cesse le capital social pour sauver un pouvoir. À nous de choisir.

It’s not that Zhangjiajie is out of reach, but Xia‑Tian‑Xia Gorge in Guangdong offers better value‑for‑money. Only a 2‑hour‑drive from Guangzhou, you get to witness nature’s magnificent craftsmanship.

What would a Chinese ink painting look like if it were shaped by nature? Just outside Lanzhou, capital city of northwest China's Gansu Province, layers of red, gold and gray stretch across the mountains, creating a landscape known as the Shuimo (Ink-Wash) Danxia. Come with us as we step into a landscape painted by earth, wind and time. #ShuimoDanxia# #Gansu# #SilkRoad# #TravelChina#

We have multiple reasons for wanting to believe nurture is more important than nature and none for wanting to believe the opposite (unless we = the far right, which we ≠), so it's not surprising we overestimate its effect. But man are kids' personalities inborn.