RoboStrategy (@RoboStrategy)

Case one: Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR). In August 2020, Strategy began buying Bitcoin. BTC value per diluted share: ~$2.34. Today, BTC value per share: $164.71 Net of Credit/Preferred Shares: $129.53 That’s ~55× in 5.7 years. Important note: Strategy's average Bitcoin buying price is roughly $75,500. Bitcoin today is roughly $77,000. They've made marginal returns on holding Bitcoin itself, yet net BTC value per share grew ~55×. To deconstruct MSTR’s NAV/Share returns: ~3% came from Bitcoin price going up. ~97% came from MSTR issuing shares above NAV (proceeds were then used to buy more BTC). If Bitcoin dropped 50% to ~$38,500, Strategy would face a large loss on their BTC NAV. Net BTC value per share would be ~$27.7, ~12x greater than the original BTC NAV per share. The company would have lost money on its investments, but retained returns from accretive share issuance. In the scenario that Bitcoin doubled, the net BTC value per share would rise to $294.24. In this scenario, the company would have achieved substantial returns from both its investments and also accretive share issuance.