Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) “Anthropic drops a paper on the US-China AI race They believe the US and its alli” — TopicDigg

Anthropic drops a paper on the US-China AI race They believe the US and its allies may be able to lock in a 12-24 month frontier AI lead by 2028 if they close China’s access to advanced compute and copied model outputs. The report says China is not far behind because Chinese labs are allegedly using loopholes, smuggled chips, offshore data centers, and distillation attacks to stay close to US frontier labs. Anthropic frames compute as the central bottleneck of AI power, saying advanced chips are not just one input but the gatekeeper for training, deployment, revenue, experimentation, and future model improvement. The report says Huawei may produce only 4% of NVIDIA’s aggregate compute in 2026 and 2% in 2027, which is one of the paper’s sharpest claims about China’s semiconductor gap. Anthropic argues that distillation is systematic industrial espionage, because Chinese labs can use American model outputs to copy capabilities without paying the full training cost. The report claims a Chinese AI lead could enable automated repression, stronger cyber operations, faster military AI deployment, and broader authoritarian influence through cheap global AI infrastructure. Future frontier models may become a “country of geniuses in a data center,” meaning a single model cluster could act like a huge expert workforce for cyber, science, engineering, and military research.