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Tom Lee 亲自示范什么叫长期主义： 投进去 201 亿美金，现在剩 115 亿，浮亏 86 亿，-42.66%。 已实现盈亏：$0.00。 一个币没卖，一刀没砍，这不叫被套，这叫信仰。 别人是买在山顶，他是把整座山顶买下来了。 $ETH

9 个月变 90 小时，挖漏洞也被 AI 改写了。 Forescout 11 月 12 日报告：用 Claude 模型搭了个挖洞工具，扫 10 款 TCP/IP 协议栈，90 小时挖出 99 个漏洞，66 个是新的，过半高危。 静态分析只花 935 美元。 #AI安全# #Claude# #物联网#

$BTC Finally reached $66,666. 👍 As promised, I want to change someone's holiday and send 0.15 $BTC(~$10,000) to one person by tomorrow. Just like, retweet and comment '$BTC'. Random winner in 24 hours. I will announce as a tweet at 12pm EST Sat

$BTC Finally reached $66,666. 👍 As promised, I want to change someone's holiday and send 0.15 $BTC(~$10,000) to one person by tomorrow. Just like, retweet and comment '$BTC'. Random winner in 24 hours. I will announce as a tweet at 12pm EST Sat

这波60000左右底部抄的仓位一点没出，73000附近还加了不少币股的仓位，昨天把加的仓位都出掉了，之前抄的现货还继续拿着。65000-66000附近有个支撑位，但这种大级别的破前高出了higher high又跌下去形成fakeout，一般都会破前低，美股和黄金都已经破了7月的前低了，想想crypto也没有理由比其他资产还要硬。 现在复盘这波犯的错误挺愚蠢的，加密这么多利空，美股那边也崩了，短期没有涨的动能，但结果还是被btc看起来很硬的假象给迷惑了，该至少跑一半避险的。 也许这一两个月就能看到crypto这轮周期的最后一跌了，不知道会到哪里，盯插针和放量吧，这时候不太建议接飞刀或者上杠杆，活下来大于一切。中长期观点没有变化，btc对比美股和对比黄金都是在绝对底部，这波跌完资金会轮转到crypto的，未来俩月仍是最适合建仓现货去做周期交易的时候（下图btc vs qqq，btc vs 黄金）

聪明的朋友可能发现了，虽然BTC最低触及了66+, 但很多山寨币并没有下跌太多，比如 $Pump一夜价格没有任何波动。 这就是我经常说的理论，山寨没有那么多货可出了，也没有做市价值。 目前山寨币指数在54，以往的下跌末期都会降到30以下。 这不是偶然，是未来的趋势，BTC的波动会大于一些山寨币，反而更适合交易者操作，山寨的流动性逐渐被吸干，一些龙头会有更好的上涨，大部分逐渐死亡，不归零但没人交易。 所以抄底时也许可以多考虑一些标的。 Sharp observers might have noticed that even though BTC dipped to the $66,000+ range, many altcoins didn’t fall all that much—for instance, the price of $PUMP remained completely flat overnight. This aligns with a theory I often discuss: there simply isn’t much supply left to dump in the altcoin market, nor is there much value in market-making for these assets. The current altcoin index sits at 54; historically, toward the end of a market decline, this figure typically drops below 30. This is no coincidence—it’s a sign of a broader trend. BTC’s volatility is now exceeding that of many altcoins, making it a better vehicle for traders. Meanwhile, liquidity in the altcoin space is gradually drying up. While a few leading tokens may still see significant gains, the vast majority are effectively dying—not necessarily hitting zero, but simply becoming illiquid with no trading activity. Therefore, when looking for "buy-the-dip" opportunities, you might want to be more selective about which assets you target.

牛初的回调有多极端？ BTC 从 87,396 跌到 66,614，回调 23.8%。2023 年牛初那次，从 25,250 跌到 19,549，回调 22.6%。跌幅几乎一样，但这次难受得多。本次涨幅已经抹掉了 70%。跌了 54 天，还没结束。 把两段摆一起看。2023 年，15,476 起涨，涨 63% 到 25,250，再回调。这次，57,800 起涨，涨 51% 到 87,396，再回调。涨得更少，吐得更多，拖得更久。 为什么会这样，有什么不一样： 1. 均线位置不一样，2023 年没有跌破 120 日均线位置$19,632，这次价格回调直接下穿到120 日均线$75,561，这价格也是微策略持仓成本价 2. 背景不一样，这轮是从 126,200 一路跌到 57,800 之后的反弹，跌了 54%，上面套着的人太多，每涨一段都有人解套卖，这几天下跌加速 3. 杠杆还没洗干净，币安合约持仓 24 小时只降了 2.8%，散户账户多空比 3.24，资金费率几乎是零。 跌了这么多，散户还在抄底做多，这种盘面一般不会马上结束还有插针风险。 按 矿机关机价算，电费 0.06 美元一度，22 款主流矿机的关机价中位数是 62,699。这次 66,614 的低点，再往下是 T21 的 64,572。7 月的低点 57,800，落在 S21 的 59,474 和 S21 水冷版的 54,376 之间。 关机价只算电费是矿工的现金成本线。关机价会随算力规模调整 关键看 57,800。守住，这次就是一次偏深的二次探底，和 2023 年的节奏还能对上。跌破7 月那个低点57,800就不算这轮周期的底。

not all crypto rewards are created equal. when a platform advertises yield, i think the first thing to check is what holders actually receive and where that value comes from. @RebateLaunch has an interesting approach to this. instead of paying holder rewards in newly issued $rebate, eligible holders receive payouts in the pair asset. on robinhood chain, that's usdg. the platform reports: → $28.5k distributed to holders. → 120,403 individual payouts. → rewards sent several times throughout the day. → no staking or manual claiming required. but the reward distribution is only one part of the model. rebate pad also uses a declining launch tax to address early sniping. → 99% during the initial stage. → 66% in the next stage. → 33% in the following stage. these penalties go into a locked treasury that supports the buyer bonus mechanism. separately, the 0.7% platform fee is used to buy $rebate from the market and burn it. the reported cumulative burn has reached 35.3m tokens, representing 3.53% of the original 1 billion supply. what makes this model worth examining is how several mechanisms connect: ✦ early launch activity contributes to the treasury. ✦ the treasury supports buyer bonuses. ✦ trading fees fund holder payouts and the $rebate buyback-and-burn mechanism. my perspective is that paying rewards in the pair asset is an interesting distinction because holders aren't simply receiving more of the same token. however, attractive payout numbers alone don't prove sustainable yield. trading volume, fee generation, treasury health and long-term user activity still matter. i'd rather evaluate the source of rewards than focus only on the advertised percentage. also, round 3 of the creator campaign closes november 17 at 22:00 utc. the real question is whether rebate pad can maintain this economic cycle as adoption grows. $rebate