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I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.

问题是唱多inp和LUMENTUM能分开吗？COHR也都是同一回事。AXTI与 Lumentum 签订 InP 衬底供应 + 产能预留协议，有效期至 2031-12-31，Lumentum 支付首笔 4350 万美元定金，2028 年第二笔 4350 万美元，合计 8700 万美元预付款，这两个是同一个物理变量就是200G EML 出货量。前面唱空还不是在拿筹码！？

$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

还韩国国运不？还存储超级周期不？还那女孩对我说不？还最好的夏天不？还黄金时代不？还退学 All in AI 不？还 800G 不？还 1.6T 不？还 CPO 不？还 NPO 不？还 ABF 载板不？还玻璃基板不？还陶瓷基板不？还先进封装不？还算力租赁不？还光模块不？还 EML 芯片不？还 DSP 芯片不？还薄膜铌酸锂不？还保偏光纤不？还 CW 光源不？还 PCB 药水不？还铜粉不？还球形硅微粉不？还 MLCC 不？还电子布不？还一代布二代布不？还 MSAP 不？还 AI 革命不？还 token 摩尔定律不？还半导体国产替代不？还改变世界不？还装逼不？

New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.