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问题是唱多inp和LUMENTUM能分开吗？COHR也都是同一回事。AXTI与 Lumentum 签订 InP 衬底供应 + 产能预留协议，有效期至 2031-12-31，Lumentum 支付首笔 4350 万美元定金，2028 年第二笔 4350 万美元，合计 8700 万美元预付款，这两个是同一个物理变量就是200G EML 出货量。前面唱空还不是在拿筹码！？

$INTC and $AMD to sign CPU LTAs with Chinese customers for AI DCs (Reuters). - Prices of some CPU products have risen more than 40% in China since the start of the year from sources. - Month-on-month increases topping 10% for some products CPUs were already a bottleneck, following CPU ratios due to AI inference... But the broader trend of LTAs seems to be appearing from: - Memory, with $MU, Samsung, $SNDK, and SK Hynix signing DRAM/NAND LTAs. - Photonics, with $LITE, $COHR signing EML LTAs. And recent Trendforce reports that $AMD and hyperscalers are now pursuing CW LTAs. And I'm sure there's many more from MLCCs to all the way to substrates. +1 for the bottleneck investors... hard to be a "bubble that pops" if you have take or pay demand spanning multiple years.

还韩国国运不？还存储超级周期不？还那女孩对我说不？还最好的夏天不？还黄金时代不？还退学 All in AI 不？还 800G 不？还 1.6T 不？还 CPO 不？还 NPO 不？还 ABF 载板不？还玻璃基板不？还陶瓷基板不？还先进封装不？还算力租赁不？还光模块不？还 EML 芯片不？还 DSP 芯片不？还薄膜铌酸锂不？还保偏光纤不？还 CW 光源不？还 PCB 药水不？还铜粉不？还球形硅微粉不？还 MLCC 不？还电子布不？还一代布二代布不？还 MSAP 不？还 AI 革命不？还 token 摩尔定律不？还半导体国产替代不？还改变世界不？还装逼不？

New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

老黄带货光模块 mrvl ，我看了下，美股光模块还有： AVGO：AI ASIC、网络交换、CPO/硅光方向的基础设施核心，但估值和共识都高。 MRVL：定制 ASIC、DSP/光互联相关；受 AI capex 节奏影响大。 COHR：光模块、激光器和材料链关键供应商；更接近物理瓶颈。 LITE：EML/激光和高速光器件；看 800G/1.6T 转化。 CRDO：AEC/高速互连和 SerDes 受益，弹性高但估值波动大。

今天分享一套光通信生态股票 首先说明，这几只股票昨天在社区已经跟伙伴们一起讨论过了 美股光通信生态 材料层 $GLW：主导光纤预制棒与电缆，近垄断地位 $AXTI：InP衬底主要供应商 光芯片/激光器层 $LITE 和 $COHR ：掌控激光器（EML、VCSEL、窄线宽激光）、InP衬底、PIC等，垂直整合形成最深护城河 DSP/ASIC层 $AVGO：主导PAM4 DSP与平台级解决方案 模块/集成层 $AAOI：负责800G/1.6T transceiver集成，向CPO延伸 系统层 $CIEN：提供光传输设备 光通信这个叙事，因为AI的发展，已经越来越重要，同时高端激光器，光前材料、先进封装，这些都是刚需。 综合看这几家公司的财报，LITE增长最爆炸，GLW最稳健，COHR均衡，AAOI弹性最高，AVGO提供平台稳定性 下一季度的财报集中在7-8月份 因为情绪的支撑，这几家股价都出现了大幅上涨，并且在昨天收盘时，已经出现了小幅的回调 但，长期肯定是看多 这是一整套光通信的股票 核心可以布局LITE（附加：AXTI）、COHR、GLW、AVGO 附加AAOI、CIEN 这样就形成了闭环 PS：附加股，波动较大 DYOR #美股# #光通信# #AI#