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「10月16日は葉月 珪くんの誕生日。 　……あっ、葉月くんから電話！」 【葉月 珪】 ……あ。起きてたか。俺。 ああ、誕生日だ、今日は俺の。サンキュ。 おまえと一緒にいるようになってから忘れないようになったよ。 だから、これからもずっと……よろしくな。 #girlsside# #GS男子誕生日#

AI时代隐藏的赢家，其实是银行。从算力到半导体到存储，市场热点一直在变，但是银行是在稳定赚钱。昨天，摩根大通JPM、高盛GS、美银BAC、富达FNCL股价都创下历史最高。而且都是有基本面依据的，今年美国不少银行都创下历史最佳季度表现，靠的就是市场热度。炒股有时候不用追最热门的，找到那些因为市场热度持续赚钱、但还没被当成主角的行业，往往更重要。

高盛给自家量化分析师开的年薪是25万美元。 然后他们最近在GitHub上公开了一个仓库，星标已经破了一万一。 里头就是那些分析师日常用的工具包，还直接集成了Claude技能。全部免费，说实话，比花25万去读个学位还实在。 这个项目叫gs-quant，是高盛交易台自己在用的Python技术栈，用来做定价、风险管理和回测的。 建议你直接收藏，这可能比这个周末刷的任何东西都值。

Goldman Sachs: LLM primer A week or so ago there was a lot of questions about the model layer economics when LLMs are without a doubt viewed more and more as a commodity+ reaching a level where being on the frontier of intelligence is no longer the swaying factor. Economics 101, in a market with many substitutes like restaurants, price undercutting becomes a crucial factor and just like EV's is where China wins. Now these talks have been pushed to the background as the Lag 7 has revived on the back of Zucks considerations of an AI cloud business+producing an AI chip (positive read through to SUMCO/ I sold to early 😞). Back to the initial topic, Goldman provides a few insights into the landscape: → China's top coding models (GLM5.2, Qwen3.7 Max) sit at ~$1 per 1M blended tokens while US SOTA runs $4-8 for the same rung of output → And they are selling it below cost. GS pegs the value for money agentic model at a -30% EBIT margin today and the coding model at -39%, cash rich balance sheets eating the loss until it flips to +14% and +22% by 2030 on their numbers → The reason they can serve that cheap is architecture, sub-8% of params activated per token across the board, DeepSeek V4 Pro firing 49B of 1.6T and GLM5.2 40B of 744B, fewer FLOPs and a structural floor under the price → The adoption already shows up on OpenRouter where China models are 5-16% of spend by task but 85% of agent tokens and 89% of code tokens, winning wherever duration and volume make cost per task the number that matters → And the blended token price rolled over with it, SDLLMTK peaked around 2.07 in early June and sits at 1.67 now This seems somewhat similar to the EV playbook to me, we the consumers should win/benefit from a price war but the return to equity shareholders is more ify.

For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.

🚨 BREAKING: DOJ opens grand jury investigation into Marxist tycoon Neville Roy Singham and alleged money laundering or other financial crimes from his base in China to funding far-left nonprofits in the U.S. and the world WATCH how the money flows. READ our @FoxNews Digital exclusive: What I've learned from people familiar with the investigation: 🚨 U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York, one of the country's most powerful districts for federal prosecutions, has launched a federal grand jury investigation into American Marxist tycoon Neville Roy Singham's financial network, examining potential financial crimes including wire fraud, bank fraud and money laundering from his base in Shanghai, where he funds groups supporting the Chinese Communist Party. 🚨 Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche authorized the investigation as the Trump administration seeks to crack down on fraud, money laundering and other financial crimes in the multibillion-dollar nonprofit industry. 🚨 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to New York City earlier this year for a meeting with Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon. The men discussed the role of a Goldman Sachs philanthropic arm — GS Donor Advised Philanthropy Fund For Wealth Management Inc. — that facilitated the movement by Singham of millions of dollars into a network of U.S. nonprofits. At that meeting, sources said, Bessent delivered a blunt ultimatum: Goldman Sachs could face scrutiny for alleged conspiracy in the funneling of the Singham money and urged Solomon to cooperate with federal investigators. Goldman Sachs is cooperating with the investigation. 🚨 Federal prosecutors are examining a financial structure that follows the three stages investigators often analyze in alleged money laundering: placement, layering and integration. Treasury, DOJ and Goldman Sachs declined to comment. Singham, his wife Jodie Evans -- also under investigation -- and the organizations in the Singham network didn't respond to numerous requests for comment. STEP 1: ALLEGED PLACEMENT According to the reporting, approximately $278 million entered the U.S. financial system through three entities: 🔴 Mutod LLC — $164,040,000 🔴 GS Donor Advised Philanthropy Fund for Wealth Management Inc. (Goldman Sachs) — $110,376,701 🔴 Likewise Conceptions LLC — $3,500,000 STEP 2: ALLEGED LAYERING Those funds were then allegedly routed through six nonprofit organizations: 🔴 $167,540,000 to People's Support Foundation Ltd., a 501(c)(3) nonprofit established with a hotel address in 2017 in Chicago and Singham's wife, Evans, on the board. 🔴 $68,748,701 to Justice and Education Fund Inc., a 501(c)(3) established with a UPS Store address in 2018 in New York City with self-avowed communists, including Manola De Los Santos, on the board. 🔴 $22,440,000 to People's Forum Inc., a 501(c)(3) established in 2017 on W. 37th Street in New York City with Evans and De Los Santos on the board. 🔴 $16,760,000 to Tricontinental Ltd., a 501(c)(3) established in North Hampton, Mass., in 2017 by Singham friend and fellow Marxist ideologue Vijay Prashad. 🔴 $1,330,000 to CodePink Women For Peace, a 501(c)(3) established in 2009 in Marina Del Ray, Calif., by Singham's wife, Evans, and her friend, Susan Medea Benjamin. 🔴 $1,098,000 to Breakthrough BT Media Inc., a 501(c)(3) established in New York City in 2020 at the People's Forum headquarters with longtime American communist leader Brian Becker's son, Ben Becker, as editor-in-chief of its pro-communist propaganda outlet, Breakthrough News. STEP 3: ALLEGED INTEGRATION According to the reporting, those organizations then distributed funding and support into a broader activist network that included: 🔴 People's Welfare Association 🔴 ANSWER Coalition 🔴 Party for Socialism and Liberation 🔴 Numerous organizations operating across Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, North America and other regions. Federal prosecutors have issued grand jury subpoenas seeking bank records and financial documents as they determine whether criminal charges are warranted. A grand jury investigation is an investigative process, not a finding of guilt. For this reporting, I traced hundreds of financial transactions, nonprofit filings and corporate records documenting how money allegedly moved through this network. WATCH the money flow. 🧵

Ex-TikTok star opens up about living in the streets & reveals that she spends all $600 she makes daily from selling herself on dr*gs 😮💔 “I don’t sleep, I don’t eat. I get up, I go [sell] myself for money and then I come back & cop [dr*gs], and repeat.”

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

Some LC-36 updates. Now that we’ve had access to the pad and integration facility we can share a bit of good news. The propellant farm, oxygen, liquid hydrogen and LNG tanks are all in good shape. This is good luck because these are very long lead items. The water tower is also good. The big support tower is damaged, but it can be repaired in place rather than torn down and replaced. The booster “Never Tell Me The Odds” and the three GS-2s that were onsite in the integration facility also look good. I’ve seen some speculation that we might move directly to the 9x4 configuration, but we won’t do that. Rate manufacturing of 7x2 is going well, and we’re going to continue that at pace as planned and store the stages for use. In addition, we had already been working for some time on eliminating our transporter-erector in favor of an alternative vertical conop, and we’ll now go directly to that; so we don’t need a new transporter-erector. We will fly again before the end of this year. Gradatim Ferociter.