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People often ask whether China or the West is “winning.” That’s the wrong question. The more useful question is: how do different systems work, and what trade-offs do they make? When you look at history, geopolitics, and economics together, you start to see repeating patterns — and those patterns matter far more than day-to-day noise.

A Taiwanese TV anchor with hundreds of thousands of followers was secretly submitting his scripts to China for approval before broadcasting them. He was paid in cryptocurrency for every video. And he was using the same bank accounts to bribe military personnel into handing over Taiwan's missile deployment data. Lin Chen-you, known by his screen name "Ma De," worked as a political reporter and anchor at CTiTV, one of Taiwan's major cable news networks, and ran a YouTube channel with a substantial following. On May 6, 2026, Taiwanese prosecutors indicted him on three counts after a four-month investigation. They are seeking 12 years in prison. The charges are specific and documented. First: Lin produced anti-recall propaganda videos during Taiwan's Legislative Yuan recall campaigns while following instructions from an unidentified Chinese contact, submitting his scripts for pre-approval before broadcasting them on television and YouTube. He then sent back viewership statistics and traffic screenshots as proof of impact. He received 4,325 USDT in Tether cryptocurrency for this work, approximately NT$130,000. Second: Lin provided at least five of his personal bank accounts as a money channel, wiring funds to six active and retired military personnel from Taiwan's Army, Navy, Air Force, and missile units. The bribed soldiers were instructed to film pro-CCP "surrender videos" while holding PRC flags and to photograph and transmit classified military documents through messaging apps. The secrets allegedly handed over included drone and missile data, Han Kuang military exercise details, rocket system specifications, missile deployment locations, new missile parameters, and internal operation manuals. From 2023 to 2025, Lin received nearly 50,000 USDT from Chinese sources, totalling over NT$1 million in illegal gains, laundered through Binance and OKX. Third: prosecutors charged him with money laundering for layering the cryptocurrency payments through multiple exchanges to conceal their origin. The lead prosecutor described Lin as a tool for information warfare who handed content control of a mainstream Taiwanese news platform directly to foreign hostile forces, calling his crimes "heinous and unforgivable." The case will not receive a public trial because the evidence involves classified national security material. Lin told investigators he did not know the money came from Chinese forces. Prosecutors noted that he submitted scripts for Chinese approval before every broadcast and sent back viewership data after each one. The evidence includes bank records, crypto transaction logs, chat histories, and confessions from several of his military co-defendants. The CCP did not need to hack Taiwan's military. It found a news anchor who needed money and gave him a script. #Taiwan# #CCP# #China# #Espionage# #MediaEspionage# #NationalSecurity# #Disinformation# #CTiTV# #Geopolitics# #ChinaSpying#

AI isn’t about replacing humans. It’s about compounding what we know and making it accessible at scale. Over time, I’ve learned that the most valuable thing I can do is capture and refine my principles on life, work, geopolitics, and investing. Now, with my AI Twin, I’m able to extend that thinking into a public resource, available beyond my own time limitations. Digital Ray is in beta — if you’re interested, I invite you to engage with it and help me make it better.

根据4月2日近200万美元的日费用（Artemis数据），Polymarket年化费用超过7亿美元；即便按4月6日最新数据，日费用也有99.38万美元，年化费用也超过3亿美元。 Polymarket正式成为加密领域最赚钱的加密原生应用之一，大概能在Top5-10之间。 收入暴涨的主要原因是： 3月30日正式上线Fee Structure V2（费用结构2.0）。 在此之前，几乎是零费用，主要是先吸引用户来玩。 现在，开始考虑商业化了，有了足够的交易量，有了足够稳定的收入，支持运营、补贴做市商等。 费用结构2.0有几点： 一是，引入了动态概率费用模型（probability-based fees），这个有点意思： • 费用不是固定百分比，而是根据市场概率（p）动态计算：fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p) ，其中，C是交易份额数；feeRate是类别特定的常数（不同市场类别不同）；p是份额价格（0～1）。 • 当概率接近50%（不确定性最高、交易最活跃）时，费用最高（不同类别峰值从0.75%到约1.8%，Crypto最高）。 • 当概率接近0%或100%（结果几乎确定）时，费用快速下降到接近零。 • 这鼓励在高不确定性市场交易，同时让taker（吃单方）为即时成交支付费用，maker（挂单方）继续完全免费，还能拿到20-25%的maker rebates（返佣），返佣资金就来自taker费用。 二是，收取taker费用范围扩大 • 之前只有Crypto（从2026年1月开始）和Sports（从2月开始）收取taker费用，其他如Politics、Finance、Economics、Culture、Weather、Tech等几乎全部免费。 • 3月30日起，费用扩展到几乎所有类别（仅保留Geopolitics/世界事件等少数仍免费）。这直接把大量之前“免费交易”的市场变成了收费市场，交易量基数瞬间变大。 这意味着，Polymarket商业模式的转变： • 早期Polymarket靠“烧钱补贴流动性”增长（费用收入基本用于maker rebates，净收入很低）； • 新结构让费用收入直接补贴做市商，提升订单簿深度和买卖价差，同时平台开始留存部分作为真实收入； • 从“增长优先”转向“增长+货币化”并重，目标是成为可持续的预测市场基础设施。

At the Munich Security Conference earlier this month, the post-1945 world order was pronounced dead by most leaders.   German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “The world order as it has stood for decades no longer exists,” and that we are in a period “great power politics.”    French President Emmanuel Macron echoed Merz’s assessment and said that Europe’s old security structures tied to the previous world order don't exist and that Europe must prepare for war.  U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that we are in a “new geopolitics era” because the “old world” is gone. The way I see it, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers. How Stage 6 works is explained in detail in Chapter 6, “The Big Cycle of External Order and Disorder,” in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. Last week, I shared all of Chapter 6 online for people to understand how this dynamic works, and it proved very popular, with more than 75 million views. You can find here: Given the now nearly universal agreement that the post-1945 world order has broken down and that we are entering a new world order, I think it would be worth your time to read.

Micron is better positioned than both Samsung and SK Hynix in building out the memory-compute platform. - SK Hynix has the best current HBM execution and the tightest Nvidia relationship but it is geographically concentrated, not full-stack, and more exposed to any AI capex slowdown. - Samsung has the most raw resources and broadest technology portfolio but has lost HBM share in the past, has inconsistent execution, and its conglomerate structure creates strategic diffusion. - Micron has the most durable structural positioning for a 3-5 year platform transition: the only full-stack U.S. memory supplier, with SOCAMM2 competition rights, hyperscaler co-design relationships, broadest IP portfolio and the geopolitical moat that neither Korean player can replicate. $MU $DRAM

The latest news keeps vindicating my points. While the U.S. is losing ground to China in an expanding range of critical domains, it has built a much more lucrative business model. It now turns to leverage allies' psychological inertia and geopolitical path-dependency to squeeze and extract them like "blood bags". Keeping allies scared and dependent means cornering them into buying overpriced US weapons, US energy, and US technology. Unfortunately for countries like India, they have gone from being courted to being invoiced. What turns out can be very absurd--the U.S. acts like a developing country that demands help from "a developed India". Instead of helping Make in India exports, America is extorting India to buy from it and to invest in it.

🚨⚡️ GEOPOLITICAL EARTHQUAKE IN BEIJING: Hours Remain Until the Moscow-Beijing Axis Launches a "New Era" that Defies the West! 🇷🇺🇨🇳 President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing this evening, May 19, welcomed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. This is no ordinary summit; Putin and Xi Jinping will officially adopt a landmark "Declaration on the Establishment of a Multipolar World and a New Type of International Relations," delivering a direct challenge to unipolar dominance. - High-Stakes Agenda & 40 Strategic Pacts: Closed-door and expanded-format negotiations will take place to redraw the global economic and political roadmap. The two leaders will hold detailed discussions on the massive "Power of Siberia - 2" gas pipeline project to solidify energy security. Signing roughly 40 joint documents designed to lock in deep structural ties across industry, transport, and nuclear energy. On May 20, the leaders will hold an intimate, informal "tea-time" session to break down the most critical and pressing international issues. - A Colossal Russian Influx in Beijing: Putin has effectively transferred the weight of the Russian state to China. He is backed by a massive delegation of top-tier officials and business titans, including Peskov, Lavrov, Manturov, and Novak, alongside billionaire oligarchs and energy czars like Sechin, Miller, Timchenko, and Deripaska. - Moving away from standard newspaper columns, Putin recorded a rare, direct video address to the citizens of the People's Republic of China. - The Kremlin explicitly confirmed there is absolutely no connection between Putin's historic summit and Donald Trump's upcoming schedule. This alliance moves entirely on its own sovereign merit.

BREAKING: Secretary of State Marco Rubio stresses the critical need for America to strategically navigate its complex relationship with China: @seanhannity : “You view China as our top geopolitical foe.” RUBIO: “Yeah, it’s both our top political challenge geopolitically and it’s also the most important relationship for us to manage.” “We're going to have interests of ours that are going to be in conflict with interests of theirs; to avoid wars and maintain peace and stability in the world, we're gonna have to manage those.”