In March 1980, a Texas oil family owed $1.7 billion they couldn't pay by Thursday.
Two months earlier, silver had hit $50 an ounce. The Hunt brothers owned a third of the world's supply. Their paper worth: $9.8 billion.
Then COMEX changed the margin rules. New long positions banned mid-trade. Silver dropped to $10 in two weeks. Wild collapse. The corner didn't fail because it was stupid. It failed because the exchange rewrote the rulebook while the position was still open.
Look at where AI compute sits in 2026. Nvidia owns roughly 90% of training silicon. TSMC is the only place it's manufactured. Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok all run on the same pipe.
Every AI operator right now is running a version of that same trade. The bet is that the pipe stays the way it is. That export controls hold. That custom silicon from Google and Amazon underperforms. That no open model quietly makes the pipe optional.
The corner-lasts-a-decade crowd and the crack-is-already-here crowd. Both of them look right. Until one of them isn't.
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